Mafia 4

[moreinjuredthanowen]

Feel free to suggest another idea that eliminates Mafia influence

As far as I'm concerned, anyone against adapting this (or a similar approach) must be considered potentially guilty.

this is big talk really and I feel its suspicious

I did the maths in game 3.

if it is a 4 way coin toss then the maths would suggest that there is a very good chance of one mafia being in there. 4 shots and a 4/15 change of mafia would have to be what 11/15 x 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 chance each time of hitting innocent... thats 24.1% that all are innocent.... ok its not as good as game 3 but i think having 4 names up is best


as you saying have sky decide which 4?

If thats all you are saying fair enough as it eliminates choice and makes it above board 4, perhaps limits mafia choice.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

we could simply also pick names off the list in op using darts if you want...........

 

[Nozzer]

we could simply also pick names off the list in op using darts if you want...........

I'd be up for just throwing darts at each other

 

[ValleyGraduate12]

Have I missed anything the last couple of hours?

 

[Nozzer]

Have I missed anything the last couple of hours?

Three pople have been lynched, MITO is innocent and Astro is mafia.

Otherwise, not much, no.

 

[Milk not bear jizz]

that is an interesting point as they could ask for their own team member to be voted for and then people would think they are innocent.

I think we must be missing something that will be revealed as aside form this being a weak move by mafia they must have had some reason for going this way. either weak or there's something else at work.

X being forced to vote for Y: In such a scenario we can't tell if X or Y are really guilty/innocent- although it would work in favour of both being innocent. Can't rule out a bluff- but it slightly points towards innocence. Not convinced of IBWT innocence... pretending to be forced to vote for Sky is exactly what IBWT would do if he were Mafia. (be 3rd time in row he were evil if he is).

I need to stop posting and get some work done...

...

PS..."work" =

We all feel that way on a daily basis!

If only Tobes would post more...

We all feel that way on a daily basis!

I'd be up for just throwing darts at each other

We all feel that way on a daily basis!

 

[Super G Ted'inho]

an idea... but a bad one on day 1.

you are basically now putting all our eggs with sky and even though we know its fine what you are saying is lets all ignore whatever gut feelings etc and ask him to either pick one out of 15... which we don't know if he knows anything or at best 4 people himself.

what if he picks you for a joke

we've two masons who's options then are limited and the mafia can simply get in line especially if it has a lower risk to them and simply follow along and we get nowhere. should he tell the journo and detective what to do as well? the vigilante?

If we are both here day 3 and you are suggesting this I'd be in agreement to try and at least get someone to get behind and use their info at that point.



We'll see when he gets on what he's got to say.

Why is it a bad idea? None of you (you and I included) have no idea who is who. None of us have a reason for voting for anyone. But four of the fifteen players involved DO know who is innocent and guilty. Those four are able to influence what the rest of us do. That's the point!

If he picks me he picks me.

Do you mean adopting?

Does it eliminate mafia influence though? Sure, Sky's innocent and would presumably act as such, but I would assume his instructions would be based on what he thinks having read the thead (or some of it at least)., so his thinking may be influenced by what the mafia say (same as anybody's). And all the mafia have to do to remain hidden is go along with the plan. It may put pressure on, it may not. But we could be just as well served by doing a random selection of votes.

If we're going for three or four random names, yes it eliminates Mafia influence.

this is big talk really and I feel its suspicious

I did the maths in game 3.

if it is a 4 way coin toss then the maths would suggest that there is a very good chance of one mafia being in there. 4 shots and a 4/15 change of mafia would have to be what 11/15 x 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 chance each time of hitting innocent... thats 24.1% that all are innocent.... ok its not as good as game 3 but i think having 4 names up is best


as you saying have sky decide which 4?

If thats all you are saying fair enough as it eliminates choice and makes it above board 4, perhaps limits mafia choice.

This is what ****s this game up. Anyone coming up with a suggestion gets shot down in flames any suggestion is ripped to pieces and anyone suggesting anything at all is automatically guilty. How the **** me suggesting leaving the decision entirely up to the known innocent is somehow portrayed as a sign of guilt god only knows. As I said before, anyone not willing to go with the idea of Sky dictating must be considering potentially guilty, its the only reason someone wouldn't be happy about it.

we could simply also pick names off the list in op using darts if you want...........

That's essentially what we're doing anyway!


I'm not normally this insistent as I know speaking out comes with consequences but I genuinely don't care if I get killed off as I have a boring role and I think watching on seeing people make twats of themselves would be more entertaining

 

[ValleyGraduate12]

Looks like Gerrez is cracking up. Pressure mounting.

 

[Milk not bear jizz]

Have I missed anything the last couple of hours?

I had to just look back. I don't think anything of significance.

AFC is quieter this game then any other game. Just an observation. Doesn't mean guilt.



Speaking of being quiet. My recommendations for town tonight:
Investigator: Look for the quiet people. It's been too easy in previous games for the guilty to hide by being quiet.
Vigilante: Unless you know something we don't. Hold off your kill for now. Don't waste a bullet- you're more likely to hit town than mafia. Don't do an RHC!
Cop: Not sure what to recommend. Perhaps arrest IBWT?
Two scenarios-
1) he's guilty... which means he is mafia and you stop him using his powers tomorrow.
2) he's town... but if you go after anyone else you have more chance of hitting town than Mafia.... IBWT is at least a suspect.

 

[Super G Ted'inho]

Looks like Gerrez is cracking up. Pressure mounting.

Its so annoying when you make a genuine suggestion and everyone jumps on what you say. No wonder people stay bloody quiet in this game


Ps...I'm watching you and the meltdown thread too

 

[Bodinki]

Feel free to suggest another idea that eliminates Mafia influence

As far as I'm concerned, anyone against adapting this (or a similar approach) must be considered potentially guilty.

I would be happy with this. Right or wrong, at least we would know any decision made would be made without Mafia influence. Cant really ask for much more than that on Day 1 to be honest.

 

[Super G Ted'inho]

I had to just look back. I don't think anything of significance.

AFC is quieter this game then any other game. Just an observation. Doesn't mean guilt.



Speaking of being quiet. My recommendations for town tonight:
Investigator: Look for the quiet people. It's been too easy in previous games for the guilty to hide by being quiet.
Vigilante: Unless you know something we don't. Hold off your kill for now. Don't waste a bullet- you're more likely to hit town than mafia. Don't do an RHC!
Cop: Not sure what to recommend. Perhaps arrest IBWT?
Two scenarios-
1) he's guilty... which means he is mafia and you stop him using his powers tomorrow.
2) he's town... but if you go after anyone else you have more chance of hitting town than Mafia.... IBWT is at least a suspect.

That'll show him

 

[Nozzer]

That's essentially what we're doing anyway!

Not sure it is; you're assuming tht Sky's choices (whatever they may be) will be random. Most likely there will be some form of bias (either for good or for bad) in there.

I've not said that I wouldn't follow the plan, I'm just not sure it's any better than any other plan and that it's not necessarily as random as you think.

It also comes to nought if Sky doesn't come on in time...

P.S. For some reason you keep making me think of cornflakes and I have no idea why...

 

[Super G Ted'inho]

I would be happy with this. Right or wrong, at least we would know any decision made would be made without Mafia influence. Cant really ask for much more than that on Day 1 to be honest.

Thank you

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

Why is it a bad idea? None of you (you and I included) have no idea who is who. None of us have a reason for voting for anyone. But four of the fifteen players involved DO know who is innocent and guilty. Those four are able to influence what the rest of us do. That's the point!

If he picks me he picks me.




If we're going for three or four random names, yes it eliminates Mafia influence.




This is what ****s this game up. Anyone coming up with a suggestion gets shot down in flames any suggestion is ripped to pieces and anyone suggesting anything at all is automatically guilty. How the **** me suggesting leaving the decision entirely up to the known innocent is somehow portrayed as a sign of guilt god only knows. As I said before, anyone not willing to go with the idea of Sky dictating must be considering potentially guilty, its the only reason someone wouldn't be happy about it.




That's essentially what we're doing anyway!


I'm not normally this insistent as I know speaking out comes with consequences but I genuinely don't care if I get killed off as I have a boring role and I think watching on seeing people make twats of themselves would be more entertaining

look this is a bit of a reaction here.... I asked you a direct question

do you mean you want sky to pick 3/4 peopel to vote for.


why is it a reaction

1. you said first anyone not doing what you say is guilty.

2. "This is what ****s this game up. Anyone coming up with a suggestion gets shot down in flames any suggestion is ripped to pieces and anyone suggesting anything at all is automatically guilty. How the **** me suggesting leaving the decision entirely up to the known innocent is somehow portrayed as a sign of guilt god only knows. As I said before, anyone not willing to go with the idea of Sky dictating must be considering potentially guilty, its the only reason someone wouldn't be happy about it."

I did put a smiley after my comment about suspicious cos it was a joke. how come you react so much when i'm only trying to tease out the idea?

do you want sky to pick one person or 3/4 people?

 

[Milk not bear jizz]

I'm willing to agree that if town can't coordinate or agree a strategy that Sky, as a known innocent, would be a good arbitrator.

However, he doesn't know more than the rest of us... and indeed after tonight will know less than the Investigator and the Journalist. As known innocent though- he should be considered to have a leadership role amongst the town (assuming he appears and makes rational decisions)- we shouldn't blindly follow him if he isn't paying much attention to what is going on... and let's face it after 9 pages (of 40 posts per page) comments already- he's going to skim through what's been posted (best case scenario) when he appears.

 

[Nozzer]

I had to just look back. I don't think anything of significance.

AFC is quieter this game then any other game. Just an observation. Doesn't mean guilt.



Speaking of being quiet. My recommendations for town tonight:
Investigator: Look for the quiet people. It's been too easy in previous games for the guilty to hide by being quiet.
Vigilante: Unless you know something we don't. Hold off your kill for now. Don't waste a bullet- you're more likely to hit town than mafia. Don't do an RHC!Cop: Not sure what to recommend. Perhaps arrest IBWT?
Two scenarios-
1) he's guilty... which means he is mafia and you stop him using his powers tomorrow.
2) he's town... but if you go after anyone else you have more chance of hitting town than Mafia.... IBWT is at least a suspect.

Good advice in any situation.

 

[brb]

Looks like Gerrez is cracking up. Pressure mounting.

Thing is he dosent know which way i will throw my vote do i stick with acf or change it back to Gerrez.....it's odds on one of them probably acf will throw his vote at a minute to eight....don't trust either of them....acf takes the game very seriously and manipulates everything...Gerrez is just a ducker and diver and survives by the skin of his teeth. Because I'm rattling them....i know i will be top of the list again...it's how it work last time and watch and 8pm tonight Valley the same will happen again.....so predictable the two of them

 

[Super G Ted'inho]

Not sure it is; you're assuming tht Sky's choices (whatever they may be) will be random. Most likely there will be some form of bias (either for good or for bad) in there.

I've not said that I wouldn't follow the plan, I'm just not sure it's any better than any other plan and that it's not necessarily as random as you think.

It also comes to nought if Sky doesn't come on in time...

P.S. For some reason you keep making me think of cornflakes and I have no idea why...

The randomness depends on Sky. He could use a number generator to pick the names, he could just pick names. Sure, it could be suggest that the latter wouldn't be entirely innocent as he could just pick the names but that doesn't make it selective since Sky doesn't know who is who. Therefore, its still random. The fact is, we do know the Mafia wouldn't have had a say and anyone not falling in line shows a sign of guilt (apart from possibly Biscan if he's been forced).

 

[Nozzer]

Thing is he dosent know which way i will throw my vote do i stick with acf or change it back to Gerrez.....it's odds on one of them probably acf will throw his vote at a minute to eight....don't trust either of them....acf takes the game very seriously and manipulates everything...Gerrez is just a ducker and diver and survives by the skin of his teeth. Because I'm rattling them....i know i will be top of the list again...it's how it work last time and watch and 8pm tonight Valley the same will happen again.....so predictable the two of them

Sorry, who do you mean?