Mafia 4

this is big talk really and I feel its suspicious

I did the maths in game 3.

if it is a 4 way coin toss then the maths would suggest that there is a very good chance of one mafia being in there. 4 shots and a 4/15 change of mafia would have to be what 11/15 x 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 chance each time of hitting innocent... thats 24.1% that all are innocent.... ok its not as good as game 3 but i think having 4 names up is best


as you saying have sky decide which 4?

If thats all you are saying fair enough as it eliminates choice and makes it above board 4, perhaps limits mafia choice.

 

we could simply also pick names off the list in op using darts if you want...........

 

I'd be up for just throwing darts at each other

 

Have I missed anything the last couple of hours?

 

Three pople have been lynched, MITO is innocent and Astro is mafia.

Otherwise, not much, no.

 

X being forced to vote for Y: In such a scenario we can't tell if X or Y are really guilty/innocent- although it would work in favour of both being innocent. Can't rule out a bluff- but it slightly points towards innocence. Not convinced of IBWT innocence... pretending to be forced to vote for Sky is exactly what IBWT would do if he were Mafia. (be 3rd time in row he were evil if he is).

We all feel that way on a daily basis!

We all feel that way on a daily basis!

We all feel that way on a daily basis!

 

Why is it a bad idea? None of you (you and I included) have no idea who is who. None of us have a reason for voting for anyone. But four of the fifteen players involved DO know who is innocent and guilty. Those four are able to influence what the rest of us do. That's the point!

If he picks me he picks me.

If we're going for three or four random names, yes it eliminates Mafia influence.

This is what ****s this game up. Anyone coming up with a suggestion gets shot down in flames any suggestion is ripped to pieces and anyone suggesting anything at all is automatically guilty. How the **** me suggesting leaving the decision entirely up to the known innocent is somehow portrayed as a sign of guilt god only knows. As I said before, anyone not willing to go with the idea of Sky dictating must be considering potentially guilty, its the only reason someone wouldn't be happy about it.

That's essentially what we're doing anyway!


I'm not normally this insistent as I know speaking out comes with consequences but I genuinely don't care if I get killed off as I have a boring role and I think watching on seeing people make twats of themselves would be more entertaining

 

Looks like Gerrez is cracking up. Pressure mounting.

 

I had to just look back. I don't think anything of significance.

AFC is quieter this game then any other game. Just an observation. Doesn't mean guilt.



Speaking of being quiet. My recommendations for town tonight:
Investigator: Look for the quiet people. It's been too easy in previous games for the guilty to hide by being quiet.
Vigilante: Unless you know something we don't. Hold off your kill for now. Don't waste a bullet- you're more likely to hit town than mafia. Don't do an RHC!
Cop: Not sure what to recommend. Perhaps arrest IBWT?
Two scenarios-
1) he's guilty... which means he is mafia and you stop him using his powers tomorrow.
2) he's town... but if you go after anyone else you have more chance of hitting town than Mafia.... IBWT is at least a suspect.

 

Its so annoying when you make a genuine suggestion and everyone jumps on what you say. No wonder people stay bloody quiet in this game


Ps...I'm watching you and the meltdown thread too

 

I would be happy with this. Right or wrong, at least we would know any decision made would be made without Mafia influence. Cant really ask for much more than that on Day 1 to be honest.

 

That'll show him

 

Not sure it is; you're assuming tht Sky's choices (whatever they may be) will be random. Most likely there will be some form of bias (either for good or for bad) in there.

I've not said that I wouldn't follow the plan, I'm just not sure it's any better than any other plan and that it's not necessarily as random as you think.

It also comes to nought if Sky doesn't come on in time...

P.S. For some reason you keep making me think of cornflakes and I have no idea why...

 

Thank you

 

look this is a bit of a reaction here.... I asked you a direct question

do you mean you want sky to pick 3/4 peopel to vote for.


why is it a reaction

1. you said first anyone not doing what you say is guilty.

2. "This is what ****s this game up. Anyone coming up with a suggestion gets shot down in flames any suggestion is ripped to pieces and anyone suggesting anything at all is automatically guilty. How the **** me suggesting leaving the decision entirely up to the known innocent is somehow portrayed as a sign of guilt god only knows. As I said before, anyone not willing to go with the idea of Sky dictating must be considering potentially guilty, its the only reason someone wouldn't be happy about it."

I did put a smiley after my comment about suspicious cos it was a joke. how come you react so much when i'm only trying to tease out the idea?

do you want sky to pick one person or 3/4 people?

 

I'm willing to agree that if town can't coordinate or agree a strategy that Sky, as a known innocent, would be a good arbitrator.

However, he doesn't know more than the rest of us... and indeed after tonight will know less than the Investigator and the Journalist. As known innocent though- he should be considered to have a leadership role amongst the town (assuming he appears and makes rational decisions)- we shouldn't blindly follow him if he isn't paying much attention to what is going on... and let's face it after 9 pages (of 40 posts per page) comments already- he's going to skim through what's been posted (best case scenario) when he appears.

 

Good advice in any situation.

 

Thing is he dosent know which way i will throw my vote do i stick with acf or change it back to Gerrez.....it's odds on one of them probably acf will throw his vote at a minute to eight....don't trust either of them....acf takes the game very seriously and manipulates everything...Gerrez is just a ducker and diver and survives by the skin of his teeth. Because I'm rattling them....i know i will be top of the list again...it's how it work last time and watch and 8pm tonight Valley the same will happen again.....so predictable the two of them

 

The randomness depends on Sky. He could use a number generator to pick the names, he could just pick names. Sure, it could be suggest that the latter wouldn't be entirely innocent as he could just pick the names but that doesn't make it selective since Sky doesn't know who is who. Therefore, its still random. The fact is, we do know the Mafia wouldn't have had a say and anyone not falling in line shows a sign of guilt (apart from possibly Biscan if he's been forced).

 

Sorry, who do you mean?