Off Topic EU deabte. Which way are you voting ?

[NSIS]

Whether it nosedives or whether it has a wobble is a matter of opinion and again will depend largely on how we deal with the exit rather than the actual exit (to clarify I'm not suggesting that there won't be an initial fall).

Trust me, it will nosedive!!...I used to work in the City and still have contacts there. The pound will go into freefall....

 

[PINKIE]

It isn't wishful thinking to say that uncertainty will subside as deals get put in place and as things stabilise the markets will recover, that's just how economics works, it's a wave. The debatable bit is whether we will peak higher than our current position or lower.

Even the Brexiters admit that the economic landscape will be worse initially. The idea that what will emerge will be better is simply wishful thinking, when the majority of economists are saying it will be a bleak picture for the UK

 

[Tobes]

Yes and the Gov need to sort that out as well

So an EU exit doesn't solve the issue then.

Gotcha

 

[NSIS]

Why will the £ nosedive. I accept that there might be some short term readjustment of currencies, but how does that equate to a nosedive?
If the UK, pulls out of the EU, then that's a large proportion of its annual contributions gone, as the EU relies on member states for its wealth. The other members are unlikely to be able to make this shortfall up, so surely the Euro would ultimately be devalued. Doesn't this potentially make the £ stronger?

The pound will nosedive because the markets think leaving the EU will be bad for the Uk economy. Also markets hate uncertainty.

What the UK contributes net to the EU is a drop in the ocean of EU overall finances.

 

[PINKIE]

Also nothing to do with the extra people here, thats even more strain on the NHS and dont forget Schools

A drop in the ocean compared to the bigger picture of lack of investment and our own ageing and increasing population. Immigration generates more revenue in taxes that it costs to accommodate them, so the argument that they are causing our public services to buckle is BS. It's the Govt who don't invest the money that we all generate that means it's at breaking point.

 

[afcftw]

Even the Brexiters admit that the economic landscape will be worse initially. The idea that what will emerge will be better is simply wishful thinking, when the majority of economists are saying it will be a bleak picture for the UK

I haven't denied the initial negative impact

 

[Tobes]

Why will the £ nosedive. I accept that there might be some short term readjustment of currencies, but how does that equate to a nosedive?
If the UK, pulls out of the EU, then that's a large proportion of its annual contributions gone, as the EU relies on member states for its wealth. The other members are unlikely to be able to make this shortfall up, so surely the Euro would ultimately be devalued. Doesn't this potentially make the £ stronger?

The net cost of our membership is only 0.4% of our own GDP, so it's a minuscule fraction of the total EU GDP, and not enough to to make the markets even blink

 

[NSIS]

Ok, so the initial impact will be a substantial hit to the UK finances. And the long term effects are a complete unknown.

Leaving sounds like a great idea then!....!

 

[Tobes]

Even the Brexiters admit that the economic landscape will be worse initially. The idea that what will emerge will be better is simply wishful thinking, when the majority of economists are saying it will be a bleak picture for the UK

They can't even explain a scenario where the long term outlook is better and why.

 

[PINKIE]

I haven't denied the initial negative impact

If we plunge the UK back into another recession then it could take a generation to recover. It's not worth the risk, there's no guarantee that longer term we'd have a better deal, and in fact most economists are pointing to the opposite being the case.

 

[HRH Custard VC]

They can't even explain a scenario where the long term outlook is better and why.

Same with staying in, its impossible to predict years ahead with any certainty. Remember everyone missed the 2008 crash, the so called experts who think an exit is cause the world to blow up.

 

[afcftw]

Trust me, it will nosedive!!...I used to work in the City and still have contacts there. The pound will go into freefall....

Due to the uncertainty surrounding a brexit I would expect a drop in value but to say it will go into free fall, particularly over the medium to long term is just opinion. For example say we do a deal with the EU whereby free trade continues based on us accepting other non-economic terms, the economy takes no hit and therefor there is no reason for the pound to drop. I appreciate this isn't necessarily the kind of deal that will be made (particularly as free movement of people would likely be the trade off and lots of brexit voters want rid of that), but until we know what deal we manage to get in place we won't know the longer term effects in the markets or value of the pound.

Again it is the uncertainty that will have the biggest effect and as things become more clear the effects of that will lower.

 

[PINKIE]

The Brexit approach is akin to one of those games where you pay £5 to open a mystery envelope.
1 of the envelopes has a £10 note in it, the other 99 have £1 coin in them.

 

[NSIS]

Due to the uncertainty surrounding a brexit I would expect a drop in value but to say it will go into free fall, particularly over the medium to long term is just opinion. For example say we do a deal with the EU whereby free trade continues based on us accepting other non-economic terms, the economy takes no hit and therefor there is no reason for the pound to drop. I appreciate this isn't necessarily the kind of deal that will be made (particularly as free movement of people would likely be the trade off and lots of brexit voters want rid of that), but until we know what deal we manage to get in place we won't know the longer term effects in the markets or value of the pound.

Again it is the uncertainty that will have the biggest effect and as things become more clear the effects of that will lower.

The pound will drop as it did back in 2008. A rapid decline of probably 25-30%. It will happen so quickly you won't have time to blink, let alone react....

 

[Tobes]

Same with staying in, its impossible to predict years ahead with any certainty. Remember everyone missed the 2008 crash, the so called experts who think an exit is cause the world to blow up.

No it's not the same at all.

The Brexit camp have admitted there'll be a market fall and can't paint an economic outlook that will put the UK in a better position, and as a result they haven't even bothered to try.

The economists who have forecasted the result of an exit have almost universally concluded it'd leave us in a worse economic position

 

[pieguts]

The net cost of our membership is only 0.4% of our own GDP, so it's a minuscule fraction of the total EU GDP, and not enough to to make the markets even blink

So if the figure is so insignificant, why will we suffer more than a short term re-adjustment. If this is the case why would the markets care whether we are in or out.

 

[afcftw]

The pound will drop as it did back in 2008. A rapid decline of probably 25-30%. It will happen so quickly you won't have time to blink, let alone react....

Even if that is the case, a drop doesn't equate to long term devaluation of the currency and how things play out beyond a brexit announcement will be what decides the long term effects.

 

[Tobes]

So if the figure is so insignificant, why will we suffer more than a short term re-adjustment. If this is the case why would the markets care whether we are in or out.

Because the net cost of membership isn't the key driver, it's the 50% of our trade that is done with the EU that's the issue, combined with the markets worldwide that we penetrate off the back of EU collective agreements. The markets hate uncertainty and from the moment an exit vote is declared until the point when the trade agreements are signed with the EU and beyond, then that uncertainty remains.

 

[HRH Custard VC]

The pound will drop as it did back in 2008. A rapid decline of probably 25-30%. It will happen so quickly you won't have time to blink, let alone react....

Bigger than the crash of 1930, come on live in the real world, less of the spouting ****

 

[NSIS]

Even if that is the case, a drop doesn't equate to long term devaluation of the currency and how things play out beyond a brexit announcement will be what decides the long term effects.

Eight years later the pound has still not recovered to the levels that it was pre 2008.