Off Topic EU deabte. Which way are you voting ?

[afcftw]

The markets will fall - fact

GDP will reduce and we will be plunged into recession

It could take years to negotiate these deals, it took Canada 7......so the market uncertainty won't be a blip, it'll be a prolonged plunge.

The statement 'it's costs the UK £350m a day to be in the EU" is completely misleading, as it doesn't, but many will take it at face value, that's the point, and stop pretending that it isn't.

I've agreed there will be a dip in the markets, it's a basic economic principle of uncertainty.

It could take years, the EU are very **** at negotiating trade deals, worse than the Canada deal is the almost ten years it has taken to try and get a deal in place with India that the UK wants but has stalled completely because of the EU. Norway has signed more trade deals than the EU. I completely agree that the EU are very slow when it comes to getting trade deals in place. However given the precarious position the EU economy is in and the measures the ECB has been taking recently and how important of a trade partner we already are to the EU I think it is highly likely a deal will be reached far quicker than the deals with other countries outside the EU have taken.

I agree it can be misleading and requires people to have further knowledge and do there own research into the figures but I can understand why the figure has been used.

 

[PINKIE]

I already said short term most people expect negative economic consequences based on the uncertainty surrounding a brexit. That's what the markets do when there is uncertainty, however over time that uncertainty would dissipate as deals come into place and a clearer picture of how things will go emerges post brexit. Long term it depends what deals we get in place.

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In a nutshell this is the major flaw of the Brexit campain. They know that it will cause massive insecurity in the markets with an inevitable downturn and possible recession, and they have absolutely no idea of what picture will emerge thereafter. Simply saying 'we'll be able to negotiate new deals' without having any idea about how that will happen is economic suicide.

 

[afcftw]

I stated long ago that the long term effects are unknown. Much would depend on what trade deals can be made, how our economy responds, and hopefully recovers from the the substantial initial shock that it will suffer. But why are we taking these unnecessary risks with our future??

The short term effects, and I'm talking at least 12-24 months, will be very nasty! How nasty, it's impossible to predict. But all I've listed above will happen!...

The £350mill is dishonest, and that's being kind. Any honest campaign would stop so blatantly trumpeting it!...

For some the reasons are due to thinking long term we can perform better outside of the EU, for others it's a sovereignty issue, there's obviously the section of people worried about immigration, some just think the EU itself is a beaurocratic mess that is heading in the wrong direction and will ultimately fail. There's all sorts of reasons but it is obviously a risk, I don't think anyone should be arguing that it isn't.

In regards to honesty, neither side of this referendum have been honest at all, so much rubbish has been spouted by both sides it's ridiculous.

 

[Tobes]

I've agreed there will be a dip in the markets, it's a basic economic principle of uncertainty.

It could take years, the EU are very **** at negotiating trade deals, worse than the Canada deal is the almost ten years it has taken to try and get a deal in place with India that the UK wants but has stalled completely because of the EU. Norway has signed more trade deals than the EU. I completely agree that the EU are very slow when it comes to getting trade deals in place. However given the precarious position the EU economy is in and the measures the ECB has been taking recently and how important of a trade partner we already are to the EU I think it is highly likely a deal will be reached far quicker than the deals with other countries outside the EU have taken.

I agree it can be misleading and requires people to have further knowledge and do there own research into the figures but I can understand why the figure has been used.

Why would the French for example, give a flying **** about the state of our economy post our exit from the EU, and rush to put in place trade deals to help bolster our position?

Over 50% of our export trade is with the EU, if we become uncompetitive in that market, then we're royally ****ed.

The Brexit campaign has skirted past this key issue and fluffed it up, much as you have there, with a "it'll all be sound don't worry" nonchalance

 

[afcftw]

In a nutshell this is the major flaw of the Brexit campain. They know that it will cause massive insecurity in the markets with an inevitable downturn and possible recession, and they have absolutely no idea of what picture will emerge thereafter. Simply saying 'we'll be able to negotiate new deals' without having any idea about how that will happen is economic suicide.

Well given that there are already examples of trade deals with countries outside of the Eu and we are a more important trade partner we can safely assume we will end up with a good deal in place and that the uncertainty will subside and the markets recover. It just depends what deal we get in place and then how we perform in negotiating deals with the rest of the world outside the EU.

 

[HRH Custard VC]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/11/eu-vote-remain-leave-sterling-markets

A 30% fall in sterling and a 20% fall in equities

The stuff of nightmares

The guardian the communist paper

 

[afcftw]

Why would the French for example, give a flying **** about the state of our economy post our exit from the EU, and rush to put in place trade deals to help bolster our position?

Over 50% of our export trade is with the EU, if we become uncompetitive in that market, then we're royally ****ed.

The Brexit campaign has skirted past this key issue and fluffed it up, much as you have there, with a "it'll all be sound don't worry" nonchalance

It's not about whether EU countries give a **** about our economy, it's about whether they give a **** about the hit to there own economies if trade is damaged with the U.K.

Given the unstable position the EU economy is in it is in everyone's interest to have a good deal in place as soon as possible.

 

[HRH Custard VC]

Do you all realise for the 2 years or so following nothing will change regarding us and the EU, so plenty of time to do deals with none EU countries and plenty want to do deals and many do commonwealth counties for one.

Also Canada is not the UK and thats why it took 7 years. The EU and the UK will want to sort out a deal quite quick for all involved

 

[Tobes]

It's not about whether EU countries give a **** about our economy, it's about whether they give a **** about the hit to there own economies if trade is damaged with the U.K.

Given the unstable position the EU economy is in it is in everyone's interest to have a good deal in place as soon as possible.

Our market is worth circa 13% to the EU.

The EU is worth over 50% to us.

Simple question, who has the greater level of risk post an out vote, the U.K. Or the EU?

 

[PINKIE]

Well given that there are already examples of trade deals with countries outside of the Eu and we are a more important trade partner we can safely assume we will end up with a good deal in place and that the uncertainty will subside and the markets recover. It just depends what deal we get in place and then how we perform in negotiating deals with the rest of the world outside the EU.

We are an important trade partner because we are a part of the EU though. Most of the deals are done with big trading blocks of which we are a part. If we leave, not only will we create an economic **** storm for ourselves, we will then have to try and forge trade deals on the back of us being in an economic hole, without the strength of our trading block. Obama said it recently that the UK will be at the back of the queue when it comes to these deals. In the meantime, our own economy is likely to go to pot, so any deals we do will be on the back of a desperation to recover.

The mantra from the Brexit campaign that the 'uncertainty will subside and the markets will recover' is just wishful thinking at best and downright negligent in reality.

 

[Tobes]

The guardian the communist paper

No, try the National Institute of Economic and Social Research

 

[afcftw]

Our market is worth circa 13% to the EU.

The EU is worth over 50% to us.

Simple question, who has the greater level of risk post an out vote, the U.K. Or the EU?

Since the ECB continues to increase its QE programme and use negative interest rates I'd say a 13% hit would be more than enough to seriously damage the EU economy. Then there are the individual industries in other countries that do huge amounts of trade with us such as the German car manufacturers that could potentially take huge hits and destabilise the economies of individual EU countries at a time when there economies are already attempting recovery. So there would be big pressure to have a deal made.

Clearly to us a 50% hit would be catastrophic.

The fact is though that trade will continue even if we end up with tariffs and the hit won't be nearly as big as the overall % of trade.

To not give the UK a good deal would be cutting off there noses to spite there faces. The risk for both sides would be too big not to work together.

 

[Tobes]

Do you all realise for the 2 years or so following nothing will change regarding us and the EU, so plenty of time to do deals with none EU countries and plenty want to do deals and many do commonwealth counties for one.

Also Canada is not the UK and thats why it took 7 years. The EU and the UK will want to sort out a deal quite quick for all involved

Canada is not the UK so it'll all be sound

 

[pieguts]

The markets will fall - fact

GDP will reduce and we will be plunged into recession

It could take years to negotiate these deals, it took Canada 7......so the market uncertainty won't be a blip, it'll be a prolonged plunge.

The statement 'it's costs the UK £350m a day to be in the EU" is completely misleading, as it doesn't, but many will take it at face value, that's the point, and stop pretending that it isn't.

This is the problem with this campaign Tobes, that none of this is FACT. It is assumptions which vary wildly and are used as some kind of stick to beat people with.
There is no guarantee that mortgage rates won't rise, sterling won't devalue, some world driven event won't plunge us all back into recession if we stay in the EU, in the same way as if we leave, immigration will no longer be a problem, the UK will successfully negotiate trade deals etc.etc.
What I would like to hear from both sides is a more reasoned debate on what's best for the UK, not this perpetual scare mongering that quite frankly will drive us all to the wrong decision.

 

[Tobes]

Since the ECB continues to increase its QE programme and use negative interest rates I'd say a 13% hit would be more than enough to seriously damage the EU economy. Then there are the individual industries in other countries that do huge amounts of trade with us such as the German car manufacturers that could potentially take huge hits and destabilise the economies of individual EU countries at a time when there economies are already attempting recovery. So there would be big pressure to have a deal made.

Clearly to us a 50% hit would be catastrophic.

The fact is though that trade will continue even if we end up with tariffs and the hit won't be nearly as big as the overall % of trade.

To not give the UK a good deal would be cutting off there noses to spite there faces. The risk for both sides would be too big not to work together.

The NIESR have calculated that the effect to the UK economy will be somewhere between 1.5 and 3.7% of our current GDP by 2030.

The net saving to the UK economy if we leave is 0.4%.

Anyone who thinks that's a sensible economic decision needs to give their head a wobble

 

[PINKIE]

This is the problem with this campaign Tobes, that none of this is FACT. It is assumptions which vary wildly and are used as some kind of stick to beat people with.
There is no guarantee that mortgage rates won't rise, sterling won't devalue, some world driven event won't plunge us all back into recession if we stay in the EU, in the same way as if we leave, immigration will no longer be a problem, the UK will successfully negotiate trade deals etc.etc.
What I would like to hear from both sides is a more reasoned debate on what's best for the UK, not this perpetual scare mongering that quite frankly will drive us all to the wrong decision.

For me it's a case of cutting through the spin and rhetoric and looking at the bigger picture. The UK does extremely well economically by being a part of the EU. I just don't see the point in taking the gamble of risking it all to negotiate new deals that are likely to be worse for us.

 

[HRH Custard VC]

No, try the National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Funded by the EU

 

[Tobes]

This is the problem with this campaign Tobes, that none of this is FACT. It is assumptions which vary wildly and are used as some kind of stick to beat people with.
There is no guarantee that mortgage rates won't rise, sterling won't devalue, some world driven event won't plunge us all back into recession if we stay in the EU, in the same way as if we leave, immigration will no longer be a problem, the UK will successfully negotiate trade deals etc.etc.
What I would like to hear from both sides is a more reasoned debate on what's best for the UK, not this perpetual scare mongering that quite frankly will drive us all to the wrong decision.

The markets falling is a cast iron fact, not even the Brexit campaign are denying that.

What follows is a matter of subjective opinion, however the market analyst predictions are stark

 

[HRH Custard VC]

The NIESR have calculated that the effect to the UK economy will be somewhere between 1.5 and 3.7% of our current GDP by 2030.

The net saving to the UK economy if we leave is 0.4%.

Anyone who thinks that's a sensible economic decision needs to give their head a wobble

or how about having 80M people living here and not being able to see a DR. or get a hospital bed or even buy a house your drive to work is now 3 hours and quality of live is 0. So who wants its head sorted now?

 

[afcftw]

We are an important trade partner because we are a part of the EU though. Most of the deals are done with big trading blocks of which we are a part. If we leave, not only will we create an economic **** storm for ourselves, we will then have to try and forge trade deals on the back of us being in an economic hole, without the strength of our trading block. Obama said it recently that the UK will be at the back of the queue when it comes to these deals. In the meantime, our own economy is likely to go to pot, so any deals we do will be on the back of a desperation to recover.

The mantra from the Brexit campaign that the 'uncertainty will subside and the markets will recover' is just wishful thinking at best and downright negligent in reality.

No, we aren't an important trade partner for the EU just because we are in the EU, it's because of the products and services we supply and our capacity for doing business. As far as doing deals outside of the EU, it would be far more straightforward because we wouldn't need 27 other countries to agree to the deals. We could make deals that are beneficial to ourselves. There are examples like Norway who have done more trade deals than the EU and there are examples all around the world of countries who operate outside of trade blocks having flourishing economies.

Obama did say that and then clarified his comments and said of course the US would want to continue to trade with the U.K. And since then other presidential candidates have come out saying the UK would definitely not be at the back of the queue. I'd take with a pinch of salt anything said by American politicians though.

It's not wishful thinking that the uncertainty will subside, that's a fact, uncertainty is about not knowing how things will play out. As things slot into place on whatever grounds they end up, there will be less uncertainty and as such the markets will stabilise and recover.