Off Topic EU deabte. Which way are you voting ?

Trust me, it will nosedive!!...I used to work in the City and still have contacts there. The pound will go into freefall....

 

Even the Brexiters admit that the economic landscape will be worse initially. The idea that what will emerge will be better is simply wishful thinking, when the majority of economists are saying it will be a bleak picture for the UK

 

So an EU exit doesn't solve the issue then.

Gotcha

 

The pound will nosedive because the markets think leaving the EU will be bad for the Uk economy. Also markets hate uncertainty.

What the UK contributes net to the EU is a drop in the ocean of EU overall finances.

 

A drop in the ocean compared to the bigger picture of lack of investment and our own ageing and increasing population. Immigration generates more revenue in taxes that it costs to accommodate them, so the argument that they are causing our public services to buckle is BS. It's the Govt who don't invest the money that we all generate that means it's at breaking point.

 

I haven't denied the initial negative impact

 

The net cost of our membership is only 0.4% of our own GDP, so it's a minuscule fraction of the total EU GDP, and not enough to to make the markets even blink

 

Ok, so the initial impact will be a substantial hit to the UK finances. And the long term effects are a complete unknown.

Leaving sounds like a great idea then!....!

 

They can't even explain a scenario where the long term outlook is better and why.

 

If we plunge the UK back into another recession then it could take a generation to recover. It's not worth the risk, there's no guarantee that longer term we'd have a better deal, and in fact most economists are pointing to the opposite being the case.

 

Same with staying in, its impossible to predict years ahead with any certainty. Remember everyone missed the 2008 crash, the so called experts who think an exit is cause the world to blow up.

 

Due to the uncertainty surrounding a brexit I would expect a drop in value but to say it will go into free fall, particularly over the medium to long term is just opinion. For example say we do a deal with the EU whereby free trade continues based on us accepting other non-economic terms, the economy takes no hit and therefor there is no reason for the pound to drop. I appreciate this isn't necessarily the kind of deal that will be made (particularly as free movement of people would likely be the trade off and lots of brexit voters want rid of that), but until we know what deal we manage to get in place we won't know the longer term effects in the markets or value of the pound.

Again it is the uncertainty that will have the biggest effect and as things become more clear the effects of that will lower.

 

The Brexit approach is akin to one of those games where you pay £5 to open a mystery envelope.
1 of the envelopes has a £10 note in it, the other 99 have £1 coin in them.

 

The pound will drop as it did back in 2008. A rapid decline of probably 25-30%. It will happen so quickly you won't have time to blink, let alone react....

 

No it's not the same at all.

The Brexit camp have admitted there'll be a market fall and can't paint an economic outlook that will put the UK in a better position, and as a result they haven't even bothered to try.

The economists who have forecasted the result of an exit have almost universally concluded it'd leave us in a worse economic position

 

So if the figure is so insignificant, why will we suffer more than a short term re-adjustment. If this is the case why would the markets care whether we are in or out.

 

Even if that is the case, a drop doesn't equate to long term devaluation of the currency and how things play out beyond a brexit announcement will be what decides the long term effects.

 

Because the net cost of membership isn't the key driver, it's the 50% of our trade that is done with the EU that's the issue, combined with the markets worldwide that we penetrate off the back of EU collective agreements. The markets hate uncertainty and from the moment an exit vote is declared until the point when the trade agreements are signed with the EU and beyond, then that uncertainty remains.

 

Bigger than the crash of 1930, come on live in the real world, less of the spouting ****

 

Eight years later the pound has still not recovered to the levels that it was pre 2008.