Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – 2 October 2016, Chantilly
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The first forfeit stage for the Arc Trials Day card at Chantilly yielded predictable disappointment.
No surprise that not a single Aidan O'Brien runner remains on the card. Do Coolmore like throwing money away on Arc Trials Day entries? They do it every year. Thirteen entries in the three Arc Trials, all forfeits.
Nine of the twenty left in the Prix Du Petit Couvert are British or Irish. Will 2015 Abbaye winner Goldream make it to post for a 2016 Abbaye warm-up? He prefers quick ground.
In the Prix Niel, ten have stood their ground but this looks disappointing with Zarak doubly engaged (also in the Moulin), Midterm and Ventura Storm representing Blighty and likely favourite Makahiki for Japan. No Harzand, Wings Of Desire or US Army Ranger.
The Prix Vermeille has a disappointing seven remaining with Endless Time the only foreign raider. Found, Simple Verse, Seventh Heaven and Even Song not interested in Group 1 money.
Just One Foot In Heaven, Elliptique and Silverware remain in the Prix Foy with New Bay et al heading for Leopardstown. Surely someone will supplement on Thursday with €13,650 for third and the fee being €9,360?
In all honesty, the Prix Du Moulin is a Group 1 race in name only with three ordinary Brits (Dutch Connection, Amazing Maria and Stormy Antarctic) amongst nine.
The Prix Gladiateur, looks like a penalty kick for Vazirabad, dropped in class after disappointing in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time, which ended a seven race winning streak in staying races.
No surprise that not a single Aidan O'Brien runner remains on the card. Do Coolmore like throwing money away on Arc Trials Day entries? They do it every year. Thirteen entries in the three Arc Trials, all forfeits.
Nine of the twenty left in the Prix Du Petit Couvert are British or Irish. Will 2015 Abbaye winner Goldream make it to post for a 2016 Abbaye warm-up? He prefers quick ground.
In the Prix Niel, ten have stood their ground but this looks disappointing with Zarak doubly engaged (also in the Moulin), Midterm and Ventura Storm representing Blighty and likely favourite Makahiki for Japan. No Harzand, Wings Of Desire or US Army Ranger.
The Prix Vermeille has a disappointing seven remaining with Endless Time the only foreign raider. Found, Simple Verse, Seventh Heaven and Even Song not interested in Group 1 money.
Just One Foot In Heaven, Elliptique and Silverware remain in the Prix Foy with New Bay et al heading for Leopardstown. Surely someone will supplement on Thursday with €13,650 for third and the fee being €9,360?
In all honesty, the Prix Du Moulin is a Group 1 race in name only with three ordinary Brits (Dutch Connection, Amazing Maria and Stormy Antarctic) amongst nine.
The Prix Gladiateur, looks like a penalty kick for Vazirabad, dropped in class after disappointing in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time, which ended a seven race winning streak in staying races.
A lot of confusion about the Arc at the moment.
The Irish Champion Stakes looks mouth watering on paper but you suspect one of either Minding or Harzand will be scratched for one reason or another. If they do participate however, would you expect them to line up in an Arc?
Bit of a silly question, but would the big owners and breeders be less interested in an Arc winner at Chantilly than the traditional Longchamp??
At the minute I can't see AOB sending Minding, which would be an absolute travesty.
The Irish Champion Stakes looks mouth watering on paper but you suspect one of either Minding or Harzand will be scratched for one reason or another. If they do participate however, would you expect them to line up in an Arc?
Bit of a silly question, but would the big owners and breeders be less interested in an Arc winner at Chantilly than the traditional Longchamp??
At the minute I can't see AOB sending Minding, which would be an absolute travesty.
Early entry fees wouldn't even be pennies to them though would it? Look how many entries could be paid for by winning one Group One race never mind the barrelful Ballydoyle are on track for bagging this season. Pretty sure they can well afford to enter what they want QM!
Irish Champion Stakes looking race of the season again, on a domestic basis anyway. Minding, Harzand, Almanzor, New Bay et al making there way to it. Some line up.
Can't wait for it. Some amount of Group 1s between them. Just hope they all run in it. It looks like the last big flat race before the real stuff gets under way.
I went and had a look back at the racecards from Arc Trials Day at Longchamp over the last 7 years. Aidan O’Brien has totalled 10 runners in the Prix Niel, Prix Foy and Prix Vermeille combined in that period.
This year, the initial entry for the Prix Niel was €960; for the Prix Foy it was €960; and for the Prix Vermeille it was €2,160. The Prix Vermeille is an early closing race because it is a Group 1, so entries were made several months ago. So by my reckoning, O’Blarney cost Coolmore €19,680 in entry fees. Several of those that dropped out have taken up less valuable alternatives at Leopardstown or will be standing in their boxes this weekend.
At Thursday’s supplementary stage, just one was added to the Prix Foy meaning four will go to post. There has to be some seriously brain-dead trainers in France. Only Jean-Pierre Carvalho (who trains in Germany) added to the race despite the prize money being €74,100 first, €28,600 second, €13,650 third, €9,100 fourth and €4,550 fifth. The supplementary fee is €9,360 so if Ito Ger finishes last they will only lose €260 in a Group 2 race.
Sunday’s maximum fields will be six in the Prix Niel, six in the Prix Vermeille, four in the Prix Foy and six in the Prix Du Moulin. Zarak has opted for the Prix Du Moulin where the British interest is Dutch Connection. Endless Time is the only British interest in the Prix Vermeille and Midterm takes on Makahiki in the Prix Niel.
At the moment it certainly looks like the Irish Champion Stakes could be the race of the season – even including the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, which could feature quite a few of the same cast. The weather could be a big factor in the Irish Champion Stakes. I feel that both the front two in the market prefer a bit of juice in the ground, so if it stays dry, New Bay could be massively over-priced.
Obrien cost Coolmore 20k? They better sack him and shut the operation down then, how will they recover from this?
thats like me losing a 5er
thats like me losing a 5er
New Bay is my selection for the Arc, am on ew at 16s so hoping for a big run tomorrow
In the last seven years, Aidan O’Brien has won the Prix Foy (2014 – Ruler Of The World) and no other race from his ten runners. One of those runners was St Nicholas Abbey in 2011, third behind Sarafina in a four runner race with two Japanese runners.
Every year he wastes 20k on entries for horses that he has no real intention to run. Perhaps they should send their horses to some other trainers – they are a commercial operation so why have 200 horses in one yard when there are plenty of capable trainers who could get just as good results with 20 or 30 of their blue-bloods in their stables.
I'm not privy to what goes on behind closed doors at Ballydoyle but I think it's obvious it's the infamous 'The Lads' who very much determine the running plans of the Coolmore owned horses, which presumably includes their entries (or they at least leave an open cheque book for their trainer to stick them in as many races as are open to them to keep their options open). As has already been said the thing to bear in mind is we're talking absolute buttons to them, in terms of entry fees when you consider the wider picture. Look at the prize money they win, not to mention how much they receive from a breeder to send a filly to have a 5 minute roll in the hay with even one of their middle ranked stallions. And then just look at what Minding picked up there for her last win, over £340k- there's your entries fees for your Arc trials for SEVENTEEN years from just one race
O'Brien is merely a paid private trainer. He doesn't make the decisions. His job is to get them fit for their targets and it's a job he's being doing unbelievably for the past two decades. Like him or loathe him his record surely stands up with anyone else that's ever trained. And you could bet every penny you have that Coolmores 'rival' firm Goldolpin would have loved to have achieved even a tiny fraction of his continued success over that period. And I'd even go as far as to say they would very happily have paid out on ten times those lost entry fees to have got anywhere near it
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Bookmaker reaction to the Irish Champion Stakes was pretty quick and predictable:
5/1 Postponed (with Ladbrokes, generally 4/1 and 7/2)
8/1 La Cressonniere, Makahiki
10/1 Harzand, Minding
16/1 Almanzor, Found, Order Of St George, Zelzal
20/1 New Bay, Zawraq, The Gurkha
25/1 Fascinating Rock, Seventh Heaven, US Army Ranger, Zarak, Galileo Gold
Personally, I cannot see Minding showing up as I think they will go to the Champion Stakes. I have felt since the Pouliches that La Cressonniere will not stay and the trainer confirmed my view by ducking the Prix Vermeille (tomorrow over Arc course and distance) in favour of the ten furlong Prix La Nonette. If Postponed does not win the Arc, will the owner take all his horses away from Roger Varian? I had 20/1 about him for last year’s Arc when the owner took him out of Cumani’s yard because he wanted to run him in the Irish Champion and Cumani said he was not ready.
If Makahiki wins the Prix Niel by half the track tomorrow, will he end up favourite for the Arc? Tickets will be changing hands for thousands of Euros on the black market as half of Japan will want to be there!
5/1 Postponed (with Ladbrokes, generally 4/1 and 7/2)
8/1 La Cressonniere, Makahiki
10/1 Harzand, Minding
16/1 Almanzor, Found, Order Of St George, Zelzal
20/1 New Bay, Zawraq, The Gurkha
25/1 Fascinating Rock, Seventh Heaven, US Army Ranger, Zarak, Galileo Gold
Personally, I cannot see Minding showing up as I think they will go to the Champion Stakes. I have felt since the Pouliches that La Cressonniere will not stay and the trainer confirmed my view by ducking the Prix Vermeille (tomorrow over Arc course and distance) in favour of the ten furlong Prix La Nonette. If Postponed does not win the Arc, will the owner take all his horses away from Roger Varian? I had 20/1 about him for last year’s Arc when the owner took him out of Cumani’s yard because he wanted to run him in the Irish Champion and Cumani said he was not ready.
If Makahiki wins the Prix Niel by half the track tomorrow, will he end up favourite for the Arc? Tickets will be changing hands for thousands of Euros on the black market as half of Japan will want to be there!
Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget commented: “Before the race it seems unbelievable because there were so many champions at the start. He had never challenged against these horses until today. It is fantastic!
“Every year you hear sometimes you have bad Derbies, even in Epsom, Ireland, everywhere. He looks to improve himself from race to race. In Deauville he was more impressive than in Chantilly and today he was more impressive than in Deauville. So he is a great horse.
“I was delighted to see him behind because the pace was strong in the second part and I like to see the horse relax behind and I was very optimistic in the last turn.
“All depends on how the horse is in the next two weeks before we take the decision (about the Arc). We have La Cressonniere who is a great filly and is unbeaten in eight races and will run in the Arc.”
“Every year you hear sometimes you have bad Derbies, even in Epsom, Ireland, everywhere. He looks to improve himself from race to race. In Deauville he was more impressive than in Chantilly and today he was more impressive than in Deauville. So he is a great horse.
“I was delighted to see him behind because the pace was strong in the second part and I like to see the horse relax behind and I was very optimistic in the last turn.
“All depends on how the horse is in the next two weeks before we take the decision (about the Arc). We have La Cressonniere who is a great filly and is unbeaten in eight races and will run in the Arc.”
Surely Order of St George will struggle at this trip! Will be absurd if he turns up at the arc!
Midterm offering a helping hand for the filly, showing up one of her 2 remaining potential rivals, only Postponed left now.
Left Hand who had a perfect trip in The Diane, just won the Vermeille very comfortably to pay yet another compliment to Europe's Champion Filly.
Left Hand who had a perfect trip in The Diane, just won the Vermeille very comfortably to pay yet another compliment to Europe's Champion Filly.
What else have ya backed in the race Eddie or you all in on this French handicapper?
Just LC, liked Duramente early on, didnt back him and he got injured.
Im not all in as she isnt Treve, shes good though and its a very shallow Arc, reminds me of the Treve situation where the only horse in her class had to give her 11 pounds. Treve won half the track running further than most, you dont need to be that good to win the Arc and i would settle for a half length win over Postponed. Again it will take something remarkable to give her 11 pounds and not sure Postponed has the natural brilliance of Orfevre.
Im not all in as she isnt Treve, shes good though and its a very shallow Arc, reminds me of the Treve situation where the only horse in her class had to give her 11 pounds. Treve won half the track running further than most, you dont need to be that good to win the Arc and i would settle for a half length win over Postponed. Again it will take something remarkable to give her 11 pounds and not sure Postponed has the natural brilliance of Orfevre.
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I like Eddie when he talks sense. Best of luck with her anyway, many of my posts are tongue in cheek regarding the race thus far. I'm not on nothing ante post so will just have a small play on the day on what I fancy then. It is a shallow race by the look of it but they still take winning.
After last year I won't be backing anything unless I go there and see them in the parade ring. I went there with every intention of backing Treve (in fact she was the only reason I went). In the parade ring Treve looked dull. New Bay looked good and Golden Horn looked absolutely gorgeous. So I reluctantly deserted Treve and backed the other 2. Had I not seen them in the paddock I would not have backed Golden Horn and would certainly have backed Treve. Lesson learned. If they ain't at their best, they ain't gonna win. Something you can't tell from a race card
