Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – 2 October 2016, Chantilly

50 year 80/1 ALERT

 

I'd need a larger sample size to recommend stayers as good Arc propositions. Average renewals is the only reason they get close imo.

 

The consensus of opinion before the race was that this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe was a mediocre or average renewal in the absence of any superstar performer and with the three top three year old fillies in Europe not in the line-up.

Down at the start, New Bay was on his toes and Highland Reel had become noticeably sweated up.

A high draw was perceived to be bad although the runners broke around a left-hand bend after a furlong. Order Of St George stayed wide, therefore nearest to the rail on the bend, whilst the rest of field followed Vedevani in the centre of the course.

The pacemaker set a good pace with Highland Reel and Order Of St George in close attendance, The Grey Gatsby, Postponed and Harzand just behind these leaders, Found in mid division on the inside, Makahiki wide in the mid-division and New Bay towards the rear.

As the field swept around the long bend towards home, Vedevani was still going strongly, slightly detached from the field with Postponed moving up to second and Found challenging on his inside and Highland Reel on his outside. The non-stayer The Grey Gatsby had dropped away, as had Makahiki, who was stuck wide the whole race, whilst New Bay was staying on wide past the retreating Harzand.

With 300 metres to go, Found had hit the front with Highland Reel in pursuit as Postponed dropped away and Order Of St George stayed on into third.

After the race, Pat Smullen opined that top-rated three year old Harzand’s poor showing was probably down to two tough races in the Derby and the Irish Derby (a bit of a lame excuse), whilst Roger Varian reported that fifth placed favourite Postponed had gone into the long bend on the wrong lead and simply had not picked up in the straight.

Top-rated Postponed clearly did not run to his 124 mark, whilst third-placed Order Of St George had achieved his 124 rating in the 2015 Irish St Leger so neither of them could be considered a reliable gauge of the form. If King George winner Highland Reel ran to his 121 rating, that would give the winner Found a similar rating (raised from her pre-race 118), given that she was in receipt of the allowance and won by less than two lengths.

It is reported that Found may turn out again in the Champion Stakes on Champions’ Day. There she could meet the top-rated three year old in Europe, Prix du Jockey Club winner Almanzor. They have history...

 

I think the Arc would have been better run at Deauville, its quite a short run in but is a much fairer track than Chantilly.

Hold up horses had absolutely no chance the way the track was playing, the first 3 in the Boussac were 1st 2nd and neck 4th turning in, Senga who finished 4th needs marking up heavily and must be a decent filly.

National Defense got the lead in the Lagadere and nothing got near him, again the first 3 turning in finished 1-2-3.

Placecock(sic) and Speedy Boarding 1-2 from well over 3 out, So Mi Dar clearly the best horse in the race closing in 3rd.

The Arc was more truly run as you would expect with a pacemaker who was still 3 clear going to the 2 pole and managed to beat 40% of his rivals which is unheard of for a pacemaker in this race, Order of St George was 2nd 1 off the rail most of the way with Highland Reel in 4th also 1 off the rail, Found just had a perfect position all the way, covered up on the rail in 5th from 5 out. Siljans Saga also had a lovely run round behind Found on the rail all the way. Harzand only got by his pacemaker in the last 50 yards.

Limato in the Foret also got a dream trip 3rd on the rail and he is probably flattered as a result, albeit clearly the class horse in the race, unsurprisingly the 40/1 runner up led from the start.

Wouldnt trust the form an inch from any of the races.

 

agree with that boris-take nae heed o that ....

 

If you class beating Derby and multiple Group One winners (Westerner) and beating three classic winners and one of the best mares of my lifetime in Park Top (Levmoss), then OK. Yes, I don't believe the Ascot Gold Cup is as good a race as it used to be, but neither are some recent Arc De Triomphes.
It's easy to be blinkered about class stayers stepping down in distance. Remember triple Ascot Gold cup winner, Sagaro. His final six furlongs in the Gold Cup was the fastest ever recorded at Ascot- unequalled by any sprinter or miler at the time. What does that say?

 

Found has done just that, beaten Grp1 winners, Derby winner and it's a poor renewal apparently! It means that Sagaro was a very good horse I would say.

It all depends on circumstances too. There are hundreds of cases anyone could use to aid a debate in their favour ie. Stone Of Folca ran the quickest 5f in history and yet never achieved a racing mark of over 100 or won any group race! It's all subjective.

 

Fair comment but not necessarily "subjective." I don't think this year's Arc was top quality- and Postponed went out like a candle in the wind- but, in fairness to Found, she's a wonderfully consistent mare who shows her very best in the autumn. An owner's 'dream' I should think- subjectively!

 

I should have said it can often be subjective. Of course the results are there to be seen and the majority of the time they speak for themselves but often people will place greater emphasis on a horse they become attached too ala Frankel, Arkle etc. for example.

To get back to the original topic I am not slating stayers dropping back, obviously we can see exceptional horses with that ability to race effective over the longer trip and shorter. But many times for they stayer to beat the faster horses it will need favourable circumstances ie.favourable ground for or against opposition. I wouldn't back Order Of St George to beat Postponed over and over again at the distance although he did finish in front Sunday, that form wouldn't hold up long term surely?

 

No, I agree on that point.
Interestingly, though, Frankie took him on the wide outside for some reason- and lost many lengths by doing that and then coming back across to rejoin the pack. Surely not to get better ground! On much softer ground- and not doing that tactic- he just might have gone close. Not a quality Arc, though, and Order Of St George's fine effort needs no justification nor excuse.

 

A few hours after the Arc, the only videos I could find on YouTube all seemed to come from Japanese sources, perhaps something to do with France Galop image right restrictions. I watched the race two or three times before writing my review.

Like you, I wondered about Frankie’s tactics. Was he acting under instructions from O’Brien as it had been decided that their three runners should try different methods of overcoming their high draws? Or had it simply been left to him to do what he thought was best? I cannot imagine that there was any significant difference in the ground across the course, so I do not think he was particularly looking for one type of ground.

Frankie knew that his horse had no stamina worries and he had plenty of horse to use. Whilst Found and Highland Reel tracked across to their right to join the main phalanx grouped behind the pacemaker, Order Of St George took the direct route to the apex of the left-hand bend and then gradually crossed over to join the field. So whilst it was the ‘wide outside’ of the course he was actually on the inside at the bend.

It is hard to conclude that his actions gained any significant advantage and I cannot think that if he had followed the crowd at the start of the race it would have made any difference to the result.

With respect to the argument about how many Group 1 winners there were in the race, I expect that a look back at the record books would show that the field is frequently packed with them as the Arc usually attracts the winners of most of the top middle distance races from across Europe. Even in a mediocre year, something has to win the Group 1 races because they obtain that status by virtue of prize money and calibre of previous winner.