Minding took a walk on betfair, almost touched 25, 16 just now. Were she to run in the Matron id forget about the Arc for her. The Japanese horse Makahiki looks the only one who could close in on the top 3 if he wins his trial.
Reportedly, Minding may be taking on the boys in the Irish Champion Stakes. If she does so and is successful, will they target the Champion Stakes at Ascot rather than the Arc? I am beginning to like the possibility that late-developing Seventh Heaven, winner of the Irish and Yorkshire Oaks, may become the Ballydoyle flag-bearer at Chantilly. She is currently on offer at 25/1 in a couple of places. The problem with the Ballydoyle horses is that although they tend to hold entries for Arc Trials day, they very rarely show up. A couple of bookies have priced up the Prix Vermeille and have Seventh Heaven as 2/1 favourite, which could be stealing money if we knew she were going to run. In the other Arc trial races, New Bay is favoured over Highland Reel in the Prix Foy, but I cannot see the latter running, whilst Harzand and Makahiki vie for favouritism in the Prix Niel. I notice that So Mi Dar has reappeared in a number of the Arc price lists at 20/1 but I have not heard any word of her imminent return to the racecourse.
Tapestry. The Matron is hardly an arc prep is it? I wouldnt want to be running in a Group 1 mile race to get ready for the best 1m4 race in Europe 3 weeks later. Looks like she runs in the Irish Champion anyway, but Harzand goes into the race in much better shape for a crack at the Arc after it.
But we know Minding gets 12F well so any prep run would surely just be a pipe opener to blow away the cobwebs. 8, 10 or 12 furlongs shouldn't really matter should it?
Shes been on the go all season, 2 Group 1s in may, 2 in June, 1 in July and just over a month off before this, dont think there will be any cobwebs, over the top if anything. To then drop back in trip again is sending mixed signals to the horse imo, and to just be out for a gallop as fav in a group 1 isnt something Ballydoyle would do I dont think. Its just not ideal in my opinion, two completely different tests at the top level within the space of 3 weeks. I could see your point if she hadnt run for a while and this was a 1/10 job over a mile just for fitness.
Would you send her straight to Chantilly instead? I guess taking on the colts in the Irish Champion stakes has its merits, not sure what else Coolmore would have for the Arc though?
If I was targeting the Arc with her she wouldnt have run in the Irish Guineas or the Nassau, certainly not both. Guineas, Oaks, Pretty Polly, then a break for Irish Champion/Vermille and Arc would have been a decent campaign. From her current campaign id probably have went for a lesser race at 10f for a prep rather than straight there. Shes had a great season and id like to see her win the Irish Champion for selfish reasons, to boost the fillies form over the colts. Obrien isnt scared to run his good horses most of the time, protection of Gleneagles a rare exception, but his record in the Arc when you look at the horses hes had suggests the way he runs them is not ideal for that particular end of season championship. He doesnt have anything else I would consider good enough.
I guess if she beats the colts over 10F in Ireland then she deserves to take her chance in the Arc if she is giving him the right signals at home. Having said that, I don't think the Arc would be a slam dunk this year so she would need to be at her best to win it. We'll see what the lads decide to do with her.
The Arc would be a lesser race without her, regardless of her preparation, one of the best this season. Still think she might have been in trouble to catch So Mi Dar after her trip in the Oaks tho!
Yep- top class filly Who IS that in your avatar picture btw? Doing my head in trying to place the face
I like the change of plans by the Japanese in the last year of so by running their horses on Trials Day in France before the Arc instead of the Group 2 in Japan. Will not be betting however If I was; La Ctessonniere for me. Weight concession for three year fillies, especially top class fillies, proving difficult to concede.
If you're confident in what will and will not run in the trials then get everything backed and lay it off on the day. You'll make a killing.
Those wanting to try and make some sort of book on the Arc Trials day card at Chantilly might be interested in the entries for the three trial races (supplementary entries allowed on Thursday 8th). Prix Niel (3yo, 27 entries) Midterm* (Sir Michael Stoute), Ashkoul (Alain de Royer Dupre), Darabad* (Alain de Royer Dupre), Harzand* (Dermot Weld), Zarak* (Alain de Royer Dupre), Doha Dream (Andre Fabre), Qatari Gold (Mikel Delzangles), Red Verdon (Ed Dunlop), Wings Of Desire* (John Gosden), Robin Of Navan* (Harry Dunlop), Unicorn (Aidan O’Brien), Carzoff (Alain Couetil), Spring Master* (Pascal Bary), Cedar Blue* (John Hammond), Apilobar* (Fabrice Vermeulen), Stellar Mass (Jim Bolger), Makahiki* (Yasuo Tomomichi), Idaho* (Aidan O’Brien), The Major General (Aidan O’Brien), Ventura Storm (Richard Hannon), Royal Artillery (John Gosden), Triplicate (Aidan O’Brien), US Army Ranger* (Aidan O’Brien), Savoir Vivre* (Jean-Pierre Carvalho), Maniaco* (Andre Fabre), The Juliet Rose* (filly, Nicolas Clement), Left Hand* (filly, Carlos Laffon-Parias). Prix Vermeille (3yo+, 22 entries) Candarliya* (4yo, Alain de Royer Dupre), Bateel (4yo, David Simcock), Siljan’s Saga* (6yo, Jean-Pierre Gauvin), Endless Time (4yo, Charlie Appleby), Speedy Boarding (4yo, James Fanshawe), Found* (4yo, Aidan O’Brien), Simple Verse* (4yo, Ralph Beckett), Mambomiss (5yo, Damien Watrigant), Deremah (3yo, Alain de Royer Dupre), Nezwaah (3yo, Roger Varian), Minding* (3yo, Aidan O’Brien), Seventh Heaven (3yo, Aidan O’Brien), Mango Tango (3yo, Pascal Bary), Turret Rocks (3yo, Jim Bolger), So Mi Dar* (3yo, John Gosden), Golden Valentine (3yo, Freddie Head), Pretty Perfect (3yo, Aidan O’Brien), Somehow (3yo, Aidan O’Brien), Even Song (3yo, Aidan O’Brien), The Juliet Rose* (3yo, Nicolas Clement), Highlands Queen (3yo, Yohann Gourraud), Left Hand* (3yo, Carlos Laffon-Parias). Prix Foy (4yo+, 11 entries) Harlem (4yo, Andre Fabre), New Bay* (4yo, Andre Fabre), Protectionist (6yo, Andreas Wohler), Highland Reel* (4yo, Aidan O’Brien), Sir Isaac Newton (4yo, Aidan O’Brien), Dylan Mouth (5yo, Marco Botti), One Foot In Heaven* (4yo, Alain de Royer Dupre), Elliptique (5yo, Andre Fabre), Tiberian (4yo, Alain Couetil), Silverwave* (4yo, Pascal Bary), Dartmouth (4yo, Sir Michael Stoute). * – already holds Arc entry.
Arc Trials Day odds Prix Niel Sunday Harzand (5/2) Makahiki (11/4) Zarak (9/2) Royal Artillery (13/2) US Army Ranger (7) Midterm (14) Apilobar (16) Left Hand (16) Maniaco (16) Red Verdon (16) Prix Vermeille Seventh Heaven (2) Found (5) Minding (5) Siljans Saga (6) Golden Valentine (7) Left Hand (8) Speedy Boarding (8) Bateel (10) Candarliya (10) Highlands Queen (10) Prix Du Moulin Zelzal (5/2) Vadamos (7/2) Belardo (9/2) Zarak (9/2) Dutch Connection (5) Trixia (7) Toormore (8) Mr Owen (14) Amazing Maria (16) Dicton (16) Prix Foy New Bay (10/9) Silverwave (9/4) Highland Reel (5) One Foot In Heaven (5) Protectionist (32/5) Dartmouth (7) Elliptique (7) Harlem (8) Sir Isaac Newton (9) Dylan Mouth (14)
By next Sunday night, this betting could look radically different: 4/1 Postponed 6/1 Harzand 8/1 La Cressonniere 9/1 Minding 14/1 Makahiki 16/1 New Bay, Found, Almanzor, Order Of St George, A Shin Hikari, Zelzal 20/1 Fascinating Rock, So Mi Dar, Zawraq, The Gurkha There are a couple there that are not going to show up anyway (quoted by a couple of bookies looking for mug punters) but the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc Trials could see Harzand or Minding top of the market with an impressive win. The bad news for those of us venturing to Chantilly next week is the miserable weather forecast for next weekend.
