Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – 2 October 2016, Chantilly

The initial entries for the big end of season showpiece were made on 11th May, with just 115 choosing to pay the €7,200. Anybody else can stump up €120,000 four days before the race.

They comprise 31 older colts and horses, 10 older fillies and mares, 55 three-year-old colts and 19 three-year-old fillies. There are 11 Japanese entries.

All the entries can be seen on the France Galop website by going to the Racing Calendar and putting in the date 02/10/2016 and following the link to Chantilly.

The usual suspects are well represented:

Coolmore (various combinations) – 11 entries
Al Shaqab Racing – 9 entries
HH Aga Khan – 7 entries
Godolphin (various operations) – 7 entries
Khalid Abdullah – 6 entries
Hamdan Al Maktoum – 5 entries
SA Aga Khan – 5 entries
Niarchos family (various operations) – 4 entries
Wertheimer & Frere – 4 entries​

Alain de Royer Dupre – 11 entries
Aidan O’Brien – 11 entries
Jean-Claude Rouget – 8 entries
John Gosden – 8 entries
Sir Michael Stoute – 6 entries
Andre Fabre – 5 entries​

Forfeits: Tuesday 27th September and Wednesday 28th September.
Supplementary Entry: Thursday 29th September.
Final Declarations: Friday 30th September.

No surprise that there is not much activity on the ante post market yet:

10/1 Postponed
12/1 Found, New Bay
14/1 Minding, Duramente
16/1 Makahiki, The Gurkha
20/1 So Mi Dar, Jack Hobbs, Zawraq, Dariyan, Order Of St George, Reel Steal, Wings Of Desire


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Current odds

 

The 2 that interest me most at this stage, at those odds, are Postponed 10/1 and So Mi Dar 20/1

 

2 that of interest to me is FOUND- altho likely to be ground dependant her form as we all know ties in very well with Golden Horn , not had the best first run this season but a lot of ballydoyle horses need their run- on good ground would love to see her line up
JACK HOBBS- last year was head and shoulders above everything (except Golden Horn and was an awful ride at Ascot) his latest injury/run is off putting but it's a long way away and could benefit from having a bit of time off- have had a thin slice of the 20/1 if he lines up he won't be shorter and this has been the plan!

 

Once the Epsom Classics have been run, we might have some idea whether this season’s middle distance three-year-olds are actually any good. Whilst I like Guineas’ winner Minding (14/1) and So Mi Dar (20/1) created a very favourable impression at York that does not give a great depth to the fillies division. None of the colts have captured our imagination so far but maybe something will in The Derby. By 5th June, something will be 6/1 for the Arc.

At 16/1 The Gurkha is the shortest-priced European three-year-old colt followed by Wings Of Desire at 20/1.

With Midterm’s failure in the Dante apparently down to a hamstring injury and now a pelvic fracture, should I be trying to get back my Derby losses by backing him at 40/1 for the Arc? (Just 20/1 with Paddy Power)

The betting is amazingly light in the French three-year-old department. How about Andre Fabre’s Lagardère winner Ultra at 50/1? (Just 20/1 with Bet Victor) He is currently on the easy list but he did beat the 2000 Guineas winner at Longchamp and would have been aimed at The Derby. Fabre is overdue another Arc winner. His Cloth Of Stars is not even quoted but is entered.

If unbeaten La Cressonniere wins the Prix de Diane, she could be quoted in single figures on the chance that she will go the extra two furlongs for Jean-Claude Rouget.

 

At this stage FOUND looks a fair price and unlike Wooly I actually was impressed by her comeback considering how undercooked she would have been on debut, she won very easily. If she gets any sort of run (got none last year before accounting for Golden Horn on there next start) in this year's race she'll go very dam close.

 

Nice to see you pop up out of the blue, classy as always

 

Get on The Rock

 

Before the Tattersalls Gold Cup, Found was down to 10/1 for the Arc on Oddschecker but she is now out to 14/1.

Fascinating Rock is a 33/1 chance with Betfred and Totesport (same firm?) and he does hold an entry, so perhaps he is overpriced in early trading.

You can have 16/1 Minding with Sportingbet.

 

Do you really think Fascinating Rock is a true G1 12f horse Joe?

 

No i meant get on as in, get in, because I was on The Rock today, didnt mean get on for the Arc

 

So I am not Joe, but I think he still has it to prove. They say the target is the Arc after the Irish Champion but that is a long time to hold an ante post slip, so I would wait and see how the three year olds turn out. There might be a French filly of the Aga Khan’s heading the betting by the end of June and then nobody would want to know the older horses.

I am starting to think that I should be going and finding out what price I can get about watercress (La Cressonniere translates that way in my dictionary) before she runs in the Prix de Diane.

Fascinating Rock now just 25/1 after the trainer’s comments about running plans.

 

Wouldn't bank on it being fast enough over 12f QM

 

Im interested in La Cressonniere for it as well, had a look to see if she was in the market before the French 1000, I think she will get the trip in the Diane but not 100% about 1m4.

 

I am missing the point here, Ron. The problem with La Cressionniere might be stamina. Will she last the distance?

Precisely – if I thought she would definitely get the trip, I would be lumping on. I am off to the Diane, where I expect her to be favourite, but will they go for the Arc if she wins?

 

Its very early days but from the market just now, Duramente 14/1 looks the best bet, he is a champion in Japan and I dont think he was at his best at Meydan. He had quite a bad injury last season and that was only his second run back after surgery, as it stands there is no other champion in the market for my money although that could obviously change with all the relevant races still to be run.

 

Yes – September 11th. Have already made plans to go. Would have gone to the Prix Du Jockey Club (5th June) but for the extortionate flight/Eurostar fares but am going to Prix de Diane (19th June). May go to Arc weekend even though I expect it to be packed.

 

The problem with the Japanese runners is who will actually show up. Duramente has been in the betting the last couple of years but not travelled. The Japanese three year old Makahiki is 16/1 but I do not expect him to appear.

The betting and the entries are becoming less and less of an indication of the actual runners. The French have been desperately trying to woo the Japanese over the last few years and that has only yielded Deep Impact, Nakayama Festa and Orfevre running places.