They don't even get to debate whether or not they think it is a penalty - just whether it is an obvious mistake. Even if they thought it wasn't a penalty I don't think they could say it was a clear mistake which is why I agree it must be down to thinking it's not a goalscoring opportunity.
They aren't allowed to take into account whether Mbemba would have got back to cover. They can only decide if he was already covering at the time of the foul. If they decided it wasn't a goalscoring opportunity I think that means they had to decide that Fletcher wasn't getting the ball if it's in the penalty area like that. They really don't help themselves with not explaining things.
The amount of gray in it means they should be explaining the thought process behind their decision. Big Sam after the match nailed it. Stop giving red cards for 'last man' fouls inside the box. The penalty is punishment enough.



