Serious takeover talk

[BumbleBee]

Can't see us gaining promotion can you ?

No!

 

[Nacho]

Can't see us gaining promotion can you ?

Yes. We're not far off as it is and Parkinson doesn't seem to accept any **** so performances should improve. We should also have more money to spend in January than any other team in the league. All we really need is a goalscorer.

 

[Nostradamoose]

Yes. We're not far off as it is and Parkinson doesn't seem to accept any **** so performances should improve. We should also have more money to spend in January than any other team in the league. All we really need is a goalscorer.

Aye, if we can get someone to bang them in then we have a punchers chance of crawling back up.

 

[Nacho]

Aye, if we can get someone to bang them in then we have a punchers chance of crawling back up.

The rest of the team isn't that bad and if they got on a roll they'd look a whole lot better. Hard to do that though without a prolific goalscorer. Since Maja left we've been relying on everyone apart from our CF to win games for us which is a bizarre state of affairs.

 

[wtdog]

2 players needed. Just 2. Mobile forward and a forward thinking midfielder

 

[Rocky]

2 players needed. Just 2. Mobile forward and a forward thinking midfielder

Probably a right back as well as McLaughlin is utter ****ing dog ****.

 

[FulwellBri]

I think in reality they'd be able to pay it. Sartori is seemingly getting more involved now and he's got plenty, I imagine Donald also has plenty given that he had to show £50m to the EFL when buying us.

Assuming it's a secured loan to Madrox I think it much more likely that the plan is to pay it back in shares after a set amount of time. Basically, from what was coming out when the takeover seemed to collapse, it appeared that FPP were anxious about the risk. They only really make money if we get to the PL but they're seeing the likes of Leeds struggle (similarly big crowds, but their tickets cost more so they'll have a big gate receipt advantage).

This is a way of minimising the risk. Donald bought the club for £15m. He likely wouldn't want to sell it for that as it would mean all his work was for no profit, but FPP might think it's a fair value given the aforementioned risk. So they loan £9m to be repaid in, say, 3 years. This gives Donald and co a chance to maximise their profit. If they do rubbish and, even with this investment, we are still in league one, then £9m would likely give FPP 75%+ of the club, so they get it canny cheap which helps offset the money they'll have to spend to get to the PL.

If Donald does as well as he thinks he can and we're an established Championship side by then, the club might be worth £50m. So the £9m only gets them under 20% of the club. That's a result for the current owners because they still own £40m odd of value that they bought for £15m. They can either sell the rest to FPP then and make a good profit, or sell some and retain the rest to hopefully make an even bigger profit if they can get us to the PL. For FPP it means the deal costs them more, but it comes with a lot less risk, they've got a Sunderland that likely won't need hundreds of millions to be back in the top flight where its value will rocket, so they avoid the risk.

They could have bought £9m of shares now, but if they'd done so and the club didn't get promotion and was ran badly (they won't be able to be hands on so will have to trust others) their £9m would lose value as the overall value of the club falls. This way they definitely get £9m back, either in cash or possibly in an increased number of shares if our value has fallen, and it lets them see close up if they really want to be involved. If that's what they've done (and I'd think it likely since they aren't a bank so won't normally be in the business of loaning money just for a slight return), it is a very good bit of risk minimisation for them, and I'd think that the current owners have done very well for all concerned getting them to agree to it

The money could have been given to them in the form of equity based on an agreed valuation of the club ( maybe the reason behind the time taken ).
In that instance it would be correct to say that safc would never need to pay the money back. They would have to sell their equity either for a profit or a loss. Regardless of what investment 'vehicle ' the shares are housed in, that would remain the case.
Maybe they have first dibs if Donald and methven decide to move on etc etc.
The options are endless.

 

[FulwellBri]

I think in reality they'd be able to pay it. Sartori is seemingly getting more involved now and he's got plenty, I imagine Donald also has plenty given that he had to show £50m to the EFL when buying us.

Assuming it's a secured loan to Madrox I think it much more likely that the plan is to pay it back in shares after a set amount of time. Basically, from what was coming out when the takeover seemed to collapse, it appeared that FPP were anxious about the risk. They only really make money if we get to the PL but they're seeing the likes of Leeds struggle (similarly big crowds, but their tickets cost more so they'll have a big gate receipt advantage).

This is a way of minimising the risk. Donald bought the club for £15m. He likely wouldn't want to sell it for that as it would mean all his work was for no profit, but FPP might think it's a fair value given the aforementioned risk. So they loan £9m to be repaid in, say, 3 years. This gives Donald and co a chance to maximise their profit. If they do rubbish and, even with this investment, we are still in league one, then £9m would likely give FPP 75%+ of the club, so they get it canny cheap which helps offset the money they'll have to spend to get to the PL.

If Donald does as well as he thinks he can and we're an established Championship side by then, the club might be worth £50m. So the £9m only gets them under 20% of the club. That's a result for the current owners because they still own £40m odd of value that they bought for £15m. They can either sell the rest to FPP then and make a good profit, or sell some and retain the rest to hopefully make an even bigger profit if they can get us to the PL. For FPP it means the deal costs them more, but it comes with a lot less risk, they've got a Sunderland that likely won't need hundreds of millions to be back in the top flight where its value will rocket, so they avoid the risk.

They could have bought £9m of shares now, but if they'd done so and the club didn't get promotion and was ran badly (they won't be able to be hands on so will have to trust others) their £9m would lose value as the overall value of the club falls. This way they definitely get £9m back, either in cash or possibly in an increased number of shares if our value has fallen, and it lets them see close up if they really want to be involved. If that's what they've done (and I'd think it likely since they aren't a bank so won't normally be in the business of loaning money just for a slight return), it is a very good bit of risk minimisation for them, and I'd think that the current owners have done very well for all concerned getting them to agree to it

It's on record. Donald's net worth is under 10m. He never had 50m .
Whether he got a loan or it was some 'manipulation ' of the parachute payments ( with the blessing of short ) ..he hasnt got 50m period.

 

[DELETED ACCOUNT 1234]

Interesting bits I hadn't heard before (I probably missed them):

"Sunderland won't ever have to pay any money back."
"that will allow them to see how the club progresses, and how things pan out for the club with that money behind it."

'the trio... don't have any shares for their investment.'
'Newcastle United's need for a new training facility saw them walk away from that potential deal'
'With Chelsea and Watford they were put off by the need to build a new stadium'

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/spo...n-sunderland-investment-relationship-17219574

I think I'm just going to be happy there is some investment and stop listening to the Methven media mouth mind.

"Sunderland won't ever have to pay any money back. That will allow them to see how the club progresses, and how things pan out for the club with that money behind it."

"They have no financial connection with Sunderland AFC and that’s the way it will stay."

Both Methven quotes on the same subject but could be interpreted completely differently.

 

[DELETED ACCOUNT 1234]

The money could have been given to them in the form of equity based on an agreed valuation of the club ( maybe the reason behind the time taken ).
In that instance it would be correct to say that safc would never need to pay the money back. They would have to sell their equity either for a profit or a loss. Regardless of what investment 'vehicle ' the shares are housed in, that would remain the case.
Maybe they have first dibs if Donald and methven decide to move on etc etc.
The options are endless.

They haven't got equity in the club or Madrox though. If they had, then the ownership structure of the club would have changed and Donald has categorically stated that it hasn't. A loan secured against equity with strings attached is the most likely answer.

 

[FulwellBri]

They haven't got equity in the club or Madrox though. If they had, then the ownership structure of the club would have changed and Donald has categorically stated that it hasn't. A loan secured against equity with strings attached is the most likely answer.

You can dilute ownership without losing control.
Some are seeing transparency, I am seeing opaque right now. Right now we live in a world where what someone says one day us denied the following day by the same person.
If anyone chooses to believe that a bunch of American businessmen whose careers are built upon investing and buying companies, have chosen to give us approx 10m with no strings attached whatsoever is kidding themselves. Seriously, no interest, no payback, no equity nothing??
Yes Santa claus does pop down the chimney and the tooth fairy leaves money under your pillow.
It is a popular expression right now, but with business especially there is always a quid pro quo.
Methven is a spruiker. He can give us 50% of the news ( ie the good part ) and keep schtum about the remainder.
Btw I have no problem with 10m ( or so ) being made available if it keeps us afloat.
Clearly Donald doesnt have that money unless he mortgages his house etc etc.
There could be all sorts of other investment vehicles created to place this money in.
These blokes arent philanthropists and will expect something in return for their money.

 

[Rocky]

What should be an exciting time for the club and fans has turned into a massive damp squib. The investment is in the hands of people who I wouldn't trust to organise a piss up in a pub. They had the opportunity to get the playing side going in a different direction with a change of management. The answer? Phil ****ing Parkinson. A dull uninspiring appointment. 2 wins from 7 games.

These ****ers in charge of the club are out of their depth.

 

[Sam Handwich]

I still need all this in layman's terms me like.
So, in essence, the Americans invest, invest some more, then invest again, until Madrox have only one way of paying them back ?

 

[Smug in Boots]

I still need all this in layman's terms me like.
So, in essence, the Americans invest, invest some more, then invest again, until Madrox have only one way of paying them back ?

In essence mate there are two possibilities.

Either the Americans are involved in a gradual takeover of the club or they've spent months doing something that couldve been arranged in a few days.

 

[DELETED ACCOUNT 1234]

You can dilute ownership without losing control.
Some are seeing transparency, I am seeing opaque right now. Right now we live in a world where what someone says one day us denied the following day by the same person.
If anyone chooses to believe that a bunch of American businessmen whose careers are built upon investing and buying companies, have chosen to give us approx 10m with no strings attached whatsoever is kidding themselves. Seriously, no interest, no payback, no equity nothing??
Yes Santa claus does pop down the chimney and the tooth fairy leaves money under your pillow.
It is a popular expression right now, but with business especially there is always a quid pro quo.
Methven is a spruiker. He can give us 50% of the news ( ie the good part ) and keep schtum about the remainder.
Btw I have no problem with 10m ( or so ) being made available if it keeps us afloat.
Clearly Donald doesnt have that money unless he mortgages his house etc etc.
There could be all sorts of other investment vehicles created to place this money in.
These blokes arent philanthropists and will expect something in return for their money.

Who has suggested no interest or payback? Certainly not me.

All I've stated is that the percentage of ownership has not changed (direct quotes from Donald) which means that equity hasn't been issued.

 

[DELETED ACCOUNT 1234]

In essence mate there are two possibilities.

Either the Americans are involved in a gradual takeover of the club or they've spent months doing something that couldve been arranged in a few days.

Not doubting that you may well be right but what would be the benefit of a gradual takeover?

I'm certain that it's much more than a loan, even though right now it seems like more of a loan than a takeover.

It feels like a structured deal that has never been seen before in English football, but I can't work out what exactly has happened, which fascinates me as a fan and someone who works in finance.

 

[Guinness Guzzler]

Not doubting that you may well be right but what would be the benefit of a gradual takeover?

I'm certain that it's much more than a loan, even though right now it seems like more of a loan than a takeover.

It feels like a structured deal that has never been seen before in English football, but I can't work out what exactly has happened, which fascinates me as a fan and someone who works in finance.

I'm guessing the benefit of a gradual takeover is on the side of the current owners. If Donald paid £15m for SAFC when he bought it I can only assume it's worth about the same now (he's cut costs, but parachute payments are about to run out and we're still in league one). So a full takeover now would have seen them walk away (having not taken a wage since they came in) with no profit.

Maybe Donald asked for a lot more to give him his profit and the Americans didn't think it was worth it due to the huge amount that needs to be spent to get us competitive. If the Americans still want the club (as it's still a good deal getting in when we're, hopefully, at our lowest ebb) then maybe Donald said it had to be gradual. If he can improve us as the process is on going (using money he might not otherwise have had access to) then he'll end up with more money when they start taking shares. The risk is that if we do **** the Americans might think it's not worth getting involved with, the current set up makes it very easy for them to walk away

 

[Smug in Boots]

Not doubting that you may well be right but what would be the benefit of a gradual takeover?

I'm certain that it's much more than a loan, even though right now it seems like more of a loan than a takeover.

It feels like a structured deal that has never been seen before in English football, but I can't work out what exactly has happened, which fascinates me as a fan and someone who works in finance.

No one can work it out which, I expect, is deliberate.

Whatever the case the Americans have gone to a great amount of trouble if it's just a loan or 'investment' with no involvement.

As things currently stand it would be a very poor investment.

Success, in the form of promotion, would instantly necessitate further, more substantial, investment.

Failure would also require more investment so imo there absolutely has to be some other benefit for the 'investors'.

The fact I was told, at the very start, that this was a takeover is obviously colouring my judgement.

 

[Boldon boy]

Probably a right back as well as McLaughlin is utter ****ing dog ****.

He was horrific yesterday and has been most of the season, yet another awful signing from Ross, coton and all
I know most league 1 signings aren't going to be world beaters but christ there must be better options out there

 

[Jerry lee]

He was horrific yesterday and has been most of the season, yet another awful signing from Ross, coton and all
I know most league 1 signings aren't going to be world beaters but christ there must be better options out there

According to CM we've just recently added a Midlands scout

I can picture it now

Ow son you want trial with Villa Wolves Birmingham or Sunderland lol