I was trying to simplify it.
But perhaps "we voted for leaving , so let's leave whatever the situation. We were OK before, we'll be all right" is somewhat underthinking things ?
Off Topic The politics thread
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I was trying to simplify it.
But perhaps "we voted for leaving , so let's leave whatever the situation. We were OK before, we'll be all right" is somewhat underthinking things ?
If I may, could I try some Economics on this.
First though, the disclaimer.
I enjoy economics as a subject. I did have to pass exams in the subject as part of a professional qualification, but that was a long time ago and is well short of making me any sort of qualified economist.
However, the expression 'count the Economists, count their opinions' is a old one.
Sir Thomas Beecham's comment, 'the English don't understand music, but they do like the noise it makes' just about covers it.
As far as Europe is concerned they sell more to us than we sell to them.
We also make a substantial net contribution the EU Budget (this is the Budget that supports the woefully inefficient Common Agricultural Policy).
If we leave without a deal our contribution stops. This gives the EU a problem.
If we fall into a recession, we buy less from Europe. DITTO.
If their tariff barriers force us to shop elsewhere. DITTO.
In fact, I can see no scenario where our having problems, following Brexit, doesn't have a harmful effect on the EU.
Perhaps there will be some sort of balance in favour of the EU from the Financial Sector, but that is questionable and in any case it will be of little comfort to the larger Engineering and Manufacturing companies, or the agricultural sectors in Southern Europe and Denmark.
A 'No Deal Brexit' is not in the interests of either the UK or the EU.
On the other hand, IF we get a deal that is fair to both sides, something like the trade agreement we had originally, and without the subsequent political and legal add-ons, everybody wins.
First though, the disclaimer.
I enjoy economics as a subject. I did have to pass exams in the subject as part of a professional qualification, but that was a long time ago and is well short of making me any sort of qualified economist.
However, the expression 'count the Economists, count their opinions' is a old one.
Sir Thomas Beecham's comment, 'the English don't understand music, but they do like the noise it makes' just about covers it.
As far as Europe is concerned they sell more to us than we sell to them.
We also make a substantial net contribution the EU Budget (this is the Budget that supports the woefully inefficient Common Agricultural Policy).
If we leave without a deal our contribution stops. This gives the EU a problem.
If we fall into a recession, we buy less from Europe. DITTO.
If their tariff barriers force us to shop elsewhere. DITTO.
In fact, I can see no scenario where our having problems, following Brexit, doesn't have a harmful effect on the EU.
Perhaps there will be some sort of balance in favour of the EU from the Financial Sector, but that is questionable and in any case it will be of little comfort to the larger Engineering and Manufacturing companies, or the agricultural sectors in Southern Europe and Denmark.
A 'No Deal Brexit' is not in the interests of either the UK or the EU.
On the other hand, IF we get a deal that is fair to both sides, something like the trade agreement we had originally, and without the subsequent political and legal add-ons, everybody wins.
I have no problem with a more rational approach to the whole situation. That is, try to get an arrangement in place.
Tariff barriers of course are between any country where we don't have an explicit deal in place. Which at least for now is nearly all of the world! So BMWs may cost a bit more, but so will all other cars from anywhere else.
Problem is we can't get a trade deal anywhere without some legal or political aspects. That's how they work. There are always rules about what can be sold, standards of manufacture, sourcing etc. (e.g. to stop one partner buying cheap crap elsewhere, adding a % and using the trade agreement to sell into the other market).
Oddly, although the agricultural policy may be a monster, UK farmers do quite well out of it. So that lot needs sorting as well.
Our contribution to the EU budget is 13%. Smaller than France or Germany (16 and 19%). Our net contribution is half that of France or Germany, so yes they do like to have our money, but they will probably get over it. I agree that the sudden cut off is not wanted at all.
Tariff barriers of course are between any country where we don't have an explicit deal in place. Which at least for now is nearly all of the world! So BMWs may cost a bit more, but so will all other cars from anywhere else.
Problem is we can't get a trade deal anywhere without some legal or political aspects. That's how they work. There are always rules about what can be sold, standards of manufacture, sourcing etc. (e.g. to stop one partner buying cheap crap elsewhere, adding a % and using the trade agreement to sell into the other market).
Oddly, although the agricultural policy may be a monster, UK farmers do quite well out of it. So that lot needs sorting as well.
Our contribution to the EU budget is 13%. Smaller than France or Germany (16 and 19%). Our net contribution is half that of France or Germany, so yes they do like to have our money, but they will probably get over it. I agree that the sudden cut off is not wanted at all.
T MAY was globe trotting for a reason we already have a deals on the table with America, Kenya, Australia, New Zealand Nigeria, but cannot implement until we leave
Corbyn backs 2nd referendum.
You stupid people listen to your superiors and betters. I'm giving you a second chance get it right this time.
You stupid people listen to your superiors and betters. I'm giving you a second chance get it right this time.
After 30 years of telling us how **** the EU was
After 30 years of telling us how **** the EU was
A statement lacking detail, SO FAR though.
No doubt he wants to avoid the sort of split that is tearing at the Tory Party, just what he doesn't need with his other problems.
However, there are Labour MP's who are in favour of Brexit as well.
Then there would be the question of what the question might be.
If there isn't an option to remain there is little point, and the 'new' suggestion that our departure is delayed seems pointless as long as Europe is not prepared to change it's stance over the Irish Border.
We can not force Europe into giving us an agreement that Parliament will pass, but if we leave without a deal, the border posts go back up in Ireland anyhow.
Personally I would suggest a compromise with the EU on this.
We will adopt a mirror agreement in Ireland to whatever is put in place between Gibraltar and Spain.
That would solve two irritating problems and the real important discussions can proceed.
Personally I would suggest a compromise with the EU on this.
We will adopt a mirror agreement in Ireland to whatever is put in place between Gibraltar and Spain.
That would solve two irritating problems and the real important discussions can proceed.
I think it’s becoming clear that we need a referendum to decide wether it’s right to have another referendum .
I will respond to one of these only. Someone else can take over as research assistant
We have absolutely no pending trade deal with the USA. We have pending talks about having talks, but so has the EU for over 6 years.
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/america...down-uk-standards-for-post-brexit-trade-deal/
https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk...e-under-draft-brexit-plan-us-ambassador-says/
https://www.iatp.org/blog/201901/what-must-be-us-uk-trade-agreement
Many difficulties exist. If the US insists on open trade on foods, then we risk being shut out of exporting farm produce to the EU. For example , this is because it would be very hard to show that the potato crossing the Channel had not also crossed the Atlantic, and the EU dos not allow the import of farm produce from the US due to their very different standards.
So if we left the EU with no deal at all, them so long as we are happy to accept GM food, higher pesticide use, high antibiotic use etc and are confident that we can shift the same amount of produce over to the US that we sell to the EU (for some food types, UK farmers export 40% to the EU), then we could probably get something in place in a year or two.
And this is just farm produce, not manufactured goods with H&S differences (arguments over fair manufacturing costs) etc.
Can this be overcome? Maybe. Will it be quick and easy? no way.
Does it mean Brexit should be stopped? Open to debate. Does it mean Brexit is complex and time should be take to get it right?
The biggest risk for both remainers and leavers is that the UK will end up in a deal with the EU that works well, but ties it to EU rules with little extra freedom, and no say in how those rules are managed and introduced.
The problem is that the EU don't have to do anything to stop Brexit. All they have to do is hold out until remainer MPs rule out a no-deal departure and it will be kicked down the road indefinitely. The betrayal of all the promises to "respect" the result will then be complete. The problem is that the issue won't go away. Leavers will re-group and the whole thing will start again. A second referendum won't solve anything, because we'll have the same arguments about the questions to be put. All I know is I won't be bothering to vote again if this carries on much longer...
Another referendum wouldn’t take us further forward , if it was a stay vote , then the leave people can remind the remainers of their own words “not binding , only advisory “
I certainly won’t vote for either of the two s hite main parties again I will just pin the tail on the donkey.
While a number of Cabinet Members are, reputedly, demanding an extension for further negotiations, to avoid a Hard Brexit it seems The French President is having none of it.
Not without a clear objective he says. I'm assuming that he isn't aiming this at the EU's negotiators.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brex...ective-macron-says/ar-BBU9muG?ocid=spartandhp
Older readers will recall that it was another French President who blocked or entry into The EU for some time before we could eventually join.
It will be interesting to see if these comments from The French President end up fortifying 'The Remainers' or getting up the noses of 'The Brexiteers', most.
Of course he has his domestic problems.
The cost of their social welfare programme along with the refusal of the protesters to pay for it.
Then there is, it seems, quite a growing, noisy bunch, apart from Le Pen and her ultra right wing, who envy us for trying to leave.
No European who supports The EU wants us to leave and be successful in case it sets a precedent.
If they are so sure of their case foe remaining, it shouldn't bother them.
It looks like we are having a lot more twists and turns to work through yet.
Not without a clear objective he says. I'm assuming that he isn't aiming this at the EU's negotiators.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brex...ective-macron-says/ar-BBU9muG?ocid=spartandhp
Older readers will recall that it was another French President who blocked or entry into The EU for some time before we could eventually join.
It will be interesting to see if these comments from The French President end up fortifying 'The Remainers' or getting up the noses of 'The Brexiteers', most.
Of course he has his domestic problems.
The cost of their social welfare programme along with the refusal of the protesters to pay for it.
Then there is, it seems, quite a growing, noisy bunch, apart from Le Pen and her ultra right wing, who envy us for trying to leave.
No European who supports The EU wants us to leave and be successful in case it sets a precedent.
If they are so sure of their case foe remaining, it shouldn't bother them.
It looks like we are having a lot more twists and turns to work through yet.
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Another vote today and there's a rumour circulating that Labour MP's are going to get behind it to just push it through so we can get on with the next stage and put this to bed. That tit from the SNP, Ian Blackford, has just started speaking and Theresa May stood up and walked out.
Every day there’s some comment from an MP that again shows how they are only considering their own views and position. Yesterday Boris Johnson said he’d now vote to support the deal . The deal that he thought was so bad for the country he resigned . So what changed his mind ? Is voting for the bad deal now good for the country ? No . It’s good for him if it means TM resigns allowing him to apply for the job . Sod the country , I get something for me .
I can't wait for the next election and see how all these MPs whose constituents voted to leave get on when they rely on these same voters to keep them on the MPs gravy train.
Some heads will surely roll, and some big heads at that.
Some heads will surely roll, and some big heads at that.
I don't live in the UK anymore so difficult for me to form a hard opinion...that said, watching from afar, all I see is a parliament of self serving tossers looking at what's best for them and being strategic about any forthcoming election either Conservative or General election. makes my pi55 boil. They are not fit for purpose.
I think the next election will have the lowest ever turnout. However , instead of just not voting ( they would say it was just down to people being indecisive) people should go along and “spoil” the ballot paper by writing across it a common statement along the lines of “I refuse to vote because I have no confidence in Uk mps or Uk democracy “ The numbers should then be publicised with the election results and hopefully show that millions have had enough of them