The PL relegation battle ...
- Thread starter Smug in Boots
- Start date
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Another cracking point for Leeds earlier on
West Ham v Nottingham Forest on Tuesday night is huge.
West Ham v Nottingham Forest on Tuesday night is huge.
I honestly thought that Liverpool were there for the taking, if they carry on like that they'll get caught by a few teams. Not saying it's not a good point for Leeds, but more a fortunate one for Liverpool. They're lucky that they've got Fulham, Burnley and Bournemouth in their next 4 games. Stronger team than those and I could see Liverpool dropping a lot of points in January (they've got Arsenal and the skunks) if they play like that.
Newcastle really dropped lucky that the Liverpool they played, in the LC Final ...
... was chaotic and inept in a manner being displayed now.
One of the most lifeless displays in a final I've seen.
The thing is that was the precursor for how they've played this season but it kind of got ignored at the time. Their performances from March to the end of the season weren't great but the lead they'd built up allowed them to get the title without much pressure. I think if they'd not had that lead they'd have blown the league last season.
Halfway through the season, we are 15 points above 17th spot... so atm relegation is now only a very very slim possibility....that is something i did not think i would say last August.
Wolves and Burnley are certainties ( Wolves) especially.
Some teams will have a good/bad run from now on...
36 points is usually safety...
Wolves and Burnley are certainties ( Wolves) especially.
Some teams will have a good/bad run from now on...
36 points is usually safety...
Long as we’re not involved im not bothered but think the bottom 3 now there won’t get out maybe West Ham if they strengthen this month
Still say Bournemouth could get dragged into the mix, especially as Semenyo is on his way out… difficult to replace a player like that
looking at the bottom now and i think west ham 'should' be the team to pull clear but to be honest only bowen has looked up for games, maybe ward-prowse, they either need a good window (can they afford it though?) or somebody to give that squad a kick up the backside.
i am still finding it strange to be in the premier and these pundits, after wholly agreeing that we would finish bottom, do not mention us in relegation talk.
i am still finding it strange to be in the premier and these pundits, after wholly agreeing that we would finish bottom, do not mention us in relegation talk.
....and proof that selling your back four and keeper in the same transfer window, is really not a good idea.
Think the bottom 3 are gone.
Everyone else has a bit more about them, and a big cushion too.
That’s absolutely shambolic from West Ham today.
Everyone else has a bit more about them, and a big cushion too.
That’s absolutely shambolic from West Ham today.
Not convinced Forest are safe, I still think they're poor and have a lunatic owner. They could still drop if West Ham pull something together. But for me it's three from the bottom four, I still think Wolves and Burnley are gonnas, so one from the other two.
Aye if anyone gets sucked in it’s Forest. I just think they’ve a bit more quality in their squad.
For those of you who remember the Premier Passions series, Bobby Saxton outlined how he looked at the league table as follows.
First, don’t look at the table until ten games have been played. At that point in time you have a good idea of who your rivals are.
After the first ten games look ten points above you and ten points below you in the table. That gives a realistic limit on how high you can climb and how far you can fall. There will from time to time be exceptions to this rule but that is rare.
To assess which teams you can catch or be caught by add or deduct one pint per game remaining in the season and if your total points after doing this is less than the team chasing you then you can be caught. If it is more then you can not be caught.
So applying this to the teams at the bottom.
Wolves with 6 points and 18 games to go have a finishing range of 18th to 20th. The highest placed team they could catch is Bournemouth.
Burnley have a range of 16th to 20th, with Sunderland being the highest placed team they could finish above. We would have collapse for that to happen.
West Ham have a range, also of 16th to 20th, the highest placed team they could catch is Chelsea.
Clearly as the season progresses the highest placed team you can catch falls quickly, especially once you get past the new year.
Realistically it is only the bottom 6 who can go down, it would be nice if it was from the bottom seven, as that would include the Visitors.
Applying the same criteria to Sunderland, we have a range of 4th to 16th and Wolves can not finish above us. Win tomorrow and applying Saxtons rule none of the bottom three can catch us.
So I think I can safely say we are not going down.
First, don’t look at the table until ten games have been played. At that point in time you have a good idea of who your rivals are.
After the first ten games look ten points above you and ten points below you in the table. That gives a realistic limit on how high you can climb and how far you can fall. There will from time to time be exceptions to this rule but that is rare.
To assess which teams you can catch or be caught by add or deduct one pint per game remaining in the season and if your total points after doing this is less than the team chasing you then you can be caught. If it is more then you can not be caught.
So applying this to the teams at the bottom.
Wolves with 6 points and 18 games to go have a finishing range of 18th to 20th. The highest placed team they could catch is Bournemouth.
Burnley have a range of 16th to 20th, with Sunderland being the highest placed team they could finish above. We would have collapse for that to happen.
West Ham have a range, also of 16th to 20th, the highest placed team they could catch is Chelsea.
Clearly as the season progresses the highest placed team you can catch falls quickly, especially once you get past the new year.
Realistically it is only the bottom 6 who can go down, it would be nice if it was from the bottom seven, as that would include the Visitors.
Applying the same criteria to Sunderland, we have a range of 4th to 16th and Wolves can not finish above us. Win tomorrow and applying Saxtons rule none of the bottom three can catch us.
So I think I can safely say we are not going down.
Far too early to say for me mate. West Ham v Forest is absolutely huge during the week
So to summarise, the bottom 3 are ****e and we're dead good. Got it
Possibly. Mind you if Wolves and Burnley weren't as bad as they are I think a few more teams would be twitching their arses. Bournemouth and Fulham in particular.
Fulham have taken 12 points from Wolves, Burnley, West Ham and Forest in the last 2 months. They could easily 6, 8, 10 points lower than their current 27 and be right in the the relegation battle.
Bournemouth have taken 8 points from 4 games against Wolves, Burnley, West Ham and Forest including beating Forest and Wolves. If they'd not won those 2 games they could easily be on 19 points outside the relegation spots on goal difference. And if they'd lost to Burnley instead of drawing??
Having the bottom 4 being as poor as they are is probably why the league is so tight, it's giving points to a lot of clubs they may not necessarily have had.
Saxton was a wise man. He also said "Get up their fooking arses"!
