You don't seem to have taken on board that in this case Stoke won't even try to win 12-0, 13-0+ nor will a team try to hit each ball for 6 in an international. That makes the chances 0% straight away without the added details.
Of course. People are just trying to string you along with the nuances. In the real World there is so little chance of Saints not staying up it might as well be 0%.

... twas a great game though at the Brit!