Relegation Watch

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Still sticking with my earlier post that newcastle wont get any more points, and after the hammering against liverpool their confidence will be shot. IMO I was so sure two weeks ago that i put my money where my mouth is and got 25-1 on them going down
 
RiverEndRick said:
Two wins and a draw would only take Wigan to 39, Max, and that would surely mean getting a draw at WBA. I can't see them getting anything from their game at Arsenal, so they would have to beat both Swansea and Villa, which they could do,but the pressure will be immense, given that they have to play four games and a Cup Final in 15 days. The crucial thing for City is to get at least a draw against Villa. A win, though, would be wonderful indeed.
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True rick, they would need to draw at arsenal too to get to 40, an unbeaten run. given they have got 1 point from their last 3 games, including 2 away losses, they're not on form dispite playing well.
I hope the WBA who turned up at St Marys last weekend are there on saturday for sure, and WBA will win.
 
I just checked on statto.com They were never more than a single win from safety and towards the end were outside the bottom three so this late revival was a myth
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We won seven out of our last nine games. We were, in that little form table, the best team in England. I don't know what you'd call that. ****ing miracle might be more accurate.
 
HP Sauce said:
We won seven out of our last nine games. We were, in that little form table, the best team in England. I don't know what you'd call that. ****ing miracle might be more accurate.
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HP, nothing at all against Wigan, but all the teams in trouble are wanting you to fail, so they can survive whilst playing poorly.
 
im amazed that we have such good odds still. Its very plausible that we will lose the rest of our games. 19/1 seems crazily generous, and if aston villa beat us on the weekend and wigan beat the holidayers, they will drop very sharply.
 
Max, don't have to defend yourself bud, I'm quite happy for anyone to go down apart from us too!

I was commenting more on the specific posters' outlook, rather than on Norwich fans generally! He wanders all over 606 talking about Wigan and what's going to happen to us. Getting on my tits now. :)

On the one hand we have a lot of injuries to key players including three first choice defenders, we have a big group of games in just about a fortnight including a cup final, and we really don't have much cover in our squad.

On the other hand - we're Wigan. :)

What makes me laugh - a lot - on not606 is how very personally some supporters take their own punditry. They get very defensive about their various theories and scenarios and analyses. The reality is that while it's fun to hypothesise, none of us actually know what's going to happen, so there's no point in getting angry when another supporters challenges analysis. we might all be surprised yet by how it pans out - because that's often the nature of the relegation beast.
 
HP Sauce said:
Max, don't have to defend yourself bud, I'm quite happy for anyone to go down apart from us too!

I was commenting more on the specific posters' outlook, rather than on Norwich fans generally! He wanders all over 606 talking about Wigan and what's going to happen to us. Getting on my tits now. :)

On the one hand we have a lot of injuries to key players including three first choice defenders, we have a big group of games in just about a fortnight including a cup final, and we really don't have much cover in our squad.

On the other hand - we're Wigan. :)

What makes me laugh - a lot - on not606 is how very personally some supporters take their own punditry. They get very defensive about their various theories and scenarios and analyses. The reality is that while it's fun to hypothesise, none of us actually know what's going to happen, so there's no point in getting angry when another supporters challenges analysis. we might all be surprised yet by how it pans out - because that's often the nature of the relegation beast.
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you've certainly got the right attitude there, and put things into perspective a little. after all, it's only a game of football. we were in League 1 3 seasons ago.
there is a lot of paranoia and worry out there :)
 
I think I've been where lots of supporters are in terms of getting really worked up about things. This season I just can't seem to stop enjoying it. Bizarre. And we have a Cup Final FFS! Us!!

I think clubs like you and QPR and Southampton, you've spent long periods outside the top flight and have had to fight long and hard to get back. It's really precious to you, and you're more scared of losing it maybe? Us, this still has the feel of a great big giant-killing adventure. I love it.

:)
 
hp, yes thats a factor, look at how many clubs in the championship have been in the premier league, i think it's something like 18 of them. not easy to get back up. at least we are financially stable now
 
batterseacanary said:
im amazed that we have such good odds still. Its very plausible that we will lose the rest of our games. 19/1 seems crazily generous, and if aston villa beat us on the weekend and wigan beat the holidayers, they will drop very sharply.
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Not really. If you're so amazed, put a few quid on it!

The fact is we have only gained zero points at home on three occasions - to City, Chelsea and Suarez. It is highly unlikely (though possible), on that basis, we will lose all three of our remaining matches. Even if we do lose all three, there are four teams below us who will have to do better. There is a chance Wigan won't achieve that. So those odds, I'd say, are about right. I wouldn't bet on us going down.

I see us playing a sapping game against Villa that will be momentous in its turgidness and, on that basis, we will bore Villa players into a draw, or shade a loss. If we lose to Villa, we will do the same to W Brom and almost certainly draw, if we win or draw against Villa, I see us opening up a bit against W Brom and have a chance of winning or losing. Either way, I can't see us on fewer than 39 points, which may be enough.

Never forget that Hughton's mantra is safety first - it won't be pretty, but we will be safe.
 
quite amazed frankly that HP took againsty my "punditry". It was rather more statistical analysis in my view.The fact that it centred on Wigan is entirely due to the fact that they are the team currently in eighteenth place
 
The Independent on Saturday (Tim Rich) had a double-pager about the possible third team to join those already gone, and we weren't even mentioned in the five likely candidates, which I find extraordinary.

They actually calculated Villa as being the most likely. Mind you, they had them losing at home to Sunderland! They probably want to reconsider it now. This will go down to the wire, and we are definately in the mix.
 
ncgandy said:
The Independent on Saturday (Tim Rich) had a double-pager about the possible third team to join those already gone, and we weren't even mentioned in the five likely candidates, which I find extraordinary.

They actually calculated Villa as being the most likely. Mind you, they had them losing at home to Sunderland! They probably want to reconsider it now. This will go down to the wire, and we are definately in the mix.
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was that after we lost to stoke gandy?
most outsiders think we are not in the mix because of our good home record - it's just most of us on here do!
so they had Villa, Sunderland, Wigan, Toon and Saints?
 
canary_max said:
was that after we lost to stoke gandy?
most outsiders think we are not in the mix because of our good home record - it's just most of us on here do!
so they had Villa, Sunderland, Wigan, Toon and Saints?
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That was before the Stoke game - they had us down to draw.

Predicted final table was:

Stoke 16th
Wigan 17th
Aston Villa 18th

We were sitting pretty in 15th! Here's hoping!
 
Canary Rob said:
Not really. If you're so amazed, put a few quid on it!

The fact is we have only gained zero points at home on three occasions - to City, Chelsea and Suarez. It is highly unlikely (though possible), on that basis, we will lose all three of our remaining matches. Even if we do lose all three, there are four teams below us who will have to do better. There is a chance Wigan won't achieve that. So those odds, I'd say, are about right. I wouldn't bet on us going down.

I see us playing a sapping game against Villa that will be momentous in its turgidness and, on that basis, we will bore Villa players into a draw, or shade a loss. If we lose to Villa, we will do the same to W Brom and almost certainly draw, if we win or draw against Villa, I see us opening up a bit against W Brom and have a chance of winning or losing. Either way, I can't see us on fewer than 39 points, which may be enough.

Never forget that Hughton's mantra is safety first - it won't be pretty, but we will be safe.
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i hope youre right. I can't put money on norwich to go down, seems like cheating really!
 
Another big weekend at the bottom.By Monday night,while things cannot be sorted mathematically they could be much clearer.That particular aspect hinges upon:

WBA v Wigan:The Pie Eaters need to win at THe Hawthorns.While a draw would be a good result but would not really achieve much and would leave them needing a result at The Emirates to exceed 39 points.If they lose today it looks bleak.Whereas in other years Wigan have managed a late spurt this season they have taken eight points from their last six fixtures.Over that period they have gained ground on Newcastle (4pts) Norwich (3pts) and Sunderland (1pt) Also four points on Fulham,but that is pretty irrelevant.

West Ham v Newcastle: Fat Sam,Nolan,The Drunken Geordie,this one has all the potential for a spectacular.Could Pardew lose his head at The Boleyn Ground? Will he get the axe? Will Fat Sam be the executioner.They are still ahead of Wigan by five points but have the worst form of the candidates.'arry could be their saviour though when they go to Loftus Rd next week.

Norwich v Villa : The big one.A draw would most likely be enough for both to survive.Will either or both go for it or play safe? Lambert likely to go for it IMO. This one could go any way.

Spurs v Southampton: A few jitters on the Saints board but I think that they have enough to survive now barring a disastrous finish combined with freak results elsewhere.

Sunderland v Stoke: A week ago this would have been a home banker but two straight wins for Stoke combined with that 6-1 hammering could mean that Di Canio's side may be under pressure Monday night if other results go against them.
 
Neatly summed up again, CT. Villa may have gained a psychological boost over Newcastle by lopping five off their goal difference while Newcastle added 6 to theirs, leaving them the closest to Wigan now. After all the frustration of recent months, it'd be great to gain safety at Villa's expence! OTBC!
 
God luck Canaries! <ok>

Hoping both our teams get a result today and Wigan lose. ;)

HOWAY THE LADS!

HOWAY THE CANARIES!
 
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