Promotion Tracker 20/21

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A\proper analysis would take account of declining points in the second half of the season- most promotion chasers start to flag and very few keep up the 2 points per game ratio after 46 games.


Of course I was right here.

No club currently managing 2 pts per game.

Donkey Rovers have lost 3 on the reel.

Buckle up ladies it's a long haul and we're almost 2/3rds of the way through.
 
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Just for the hell of it...

City average 1.79 points a game which historically is good enough to finish 4th.

Points per game table:
1st - Lincoln - 1.96
2nd - Peterborough - 1.93
3rd - Doncaster - 1.85
4th - Hull City - 1.79
5th - Portsmouth - 1.78
6th - Accrington - 1.73

Actual table:
1st - Lincoln - P27 - 53pts
2nd - Hull City - P29 - 52pts
3rd - Peterborough - P27 - 52pts
4th - Portsmouth - P27 - 48pts
5th - Doncaster - P26 - 48pts
6th - Accrington - P26 - 45pts

Looking back over the past 15 seasons this is what we need from out remaining 17 games to finish:
1st - 14 wins, 1 draw
2nd - 12 wins
Play-offs - 7 wins, 1 draw
 
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For what it's worth, our last 3 seasons at this level:

1983/1984 - 4th, 1.80ppg
1984/1985 - 2nd, 1.89ppg
2004/2005 - 2nd, 1.87ppg

This is going down to the wire, no team is pulling away. Each team up there is having spells of 3, 4 or 5 games of success followed by a drop off in results. I can see it all coming down to what happens on May 8th.
 
For what it's worth, our last 3 seasons at this level:

1983/1984 - 4th, 1.80ppg
1984/1985 - 2nd, 1.89ppg
2004/2005 - 2nd, 1.87ppg

This is going down to the wire, no team is pulling away. Each team up there is having spells of 3, 4 or 5 games of success followed by a drop off in results. I can see it all coming down to what happens on May 8th.
... or tomorrow?
 
More happy reading.

City average 1.71 points a game which historically is good enough to finish 5th.

Points per game table:
1st - Peterborough - 2.00
2nd - Lincoln - 1.97
3rd - Doncaster - 1.81
4th - Portsmouth - 1.76
5th - Sunderland - 1.72
6th - Hull City - 1.71
7th - Accrington - 1.64

Actual table:
1st - Peterborough - P29 - 58pts
2nd - Lincoln - P29 - 57pts
3rd - Hull City - P31 - 53pts
4th - Portsmouth - P29 - 51pts
5th - Sunderland - P29 - 50pts
6th - Doncaster - P27 - 49pts
7th - Accrington - P28 - 46pts

Looking back over the past 15 seasons this is what we need from out remaining 15 games to finish:
1st - 14 wins
2nd - 11 wins, 2 draws
Play-offs - 7 wins
 
More happy reading.

City average 1.71 points a game which historically is good enough to finish 5th.

Points per game table:
1st - Peterborough - 2.00
2nd - Lincoln - 1.97
3rd - Doncaster - 1.81
4th - Portsmouth - 1.76
5th - Sunderland - 1.72
6th - Hull City - 1.71
7th - Accrington - 1.64

Actual table:
1st - Peterborough - P29 - 58pts
2nd - Lincoln - P29 - 57pts
3rd - Hull City - P31 - 53pts
4th - Portsmouth - P29 - 51pts
5th - Sunderland - P29 - 50pts
6th - Doncaster - P27 - 49pts
7th - Accrington - P28 - 46pts

Looking back over the past 15 seasons this is what we need from out remaining 15 games to finish:
1st - 14 wins
2nd - 11 wins, 2 draws
Play-offs - 7 wins

I think these stats are fairly meaningless, as in the first half of the season we were one of the top performing teams in the league, but in the second half we've been one of the poorer teams (13th over the last 15 games). On current form, we won't make the play-off's.
 
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I think these stats are fairly meaningless, as in the first half of the season we were one of the top performing teams in the league, but in the second half we've been one of the poorer teams (13th over the last 15 games). On current form, we won't make the play-off's.
The stats being reported are showing the rolling downward & upward trends of teams in the promotion battle. The points/game played are the true measure and highly meaningful as an indication of probable final placing. City are falling like stones relative to historical rates required to ensure promotion.
 
I think these stats are fairly meaningless, as in the first half of the season we were one of the top performing teams in the league, but in the second half we've been one of the poorer teams (13th over the last 15 games). On current form, we won't make the play-off's.

I think it'd be impressive (is that the right word?) if we failed to make the play-offs given where we were placed after the first half of the season. I remember saying the same about relegation last season though.

I think we'll make the play-offs but can't see us beating whoever we meet in them.
 
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Following this weekend.

City average 1.75 points a game which historically is good enough to finish 5th.

Points per game table:
1st - Peterborough - 2.03
2nd - Lincoln - 1.90
3rd - Hull City - 1.75
4th - Doncaster - 1.75
5th - Portsmouth - 1.73
6th - Sunderland - 1.70
7th - Accrington - 1.62

Actual table:
1st - Peterborough - P30 - 61pts
2nd - Lincoln - P30 - 57pts
3rd - Hull City - P32 - 56pts
4th - Portsmouth - P30 - 52pts
5th - Sunderland - P30 - 51pts
6th - Doncaster - P28 - 49pts
7th - Accrington - P29 - 47pts

Looking back over the past 15 seasons this is what we need from out remaining 14 games to finish:
1st - 13 wins
2nd - 10 wins, 2 draws
Play-offs - 6 wins
 
Following this weekend.

City average 1.75 points a game which historically is good enough to finish 5th.

Points per game table:
1st - Peterborough - 2.03
2nd - Lincoln - 1.90
3rd - Hull City - 1.75
4th - Doncaster - 1.75
5th - Portsmouth - 1.73
6th - Sunderland - 1.70
7th - Accrington - 1.62

Actual table:
1st - Peterborough - P30 - 61pts
2nd - Lincoln - P30 - 57pts
3rd - Hull City - P32 - 56pts
4th - Portsmouth - P30 - 52pts
5th - Sunderland - P30 - 51pts
6th - Doncaster - P28 - 49pts
7th - Accrington - P29 - 47pts

Looking back over the past 15 seasons this is what we need from out remaining 14 games to finish:
1st - 13 wins
2nd - 10 wins, 2 draws
Play-offs - 6 wins


It changes quickly. new PPG table as of last night:

1st Peterborough - 1.88 (-0.15 compared to the above)
2nd Hull City - 1.86 (+0.11)
3rd Lincoln - 1.85 (-0.05)
4th Sunderland - 1.82 (+0.12)
5th Doncaster - 1.77 (+0.02)
6th Blackpool - 1.60
7th Ipswich - 1.59
8th Portmouth - 1.58
9th Accrington & Oxford - 1.56
 
Can't believe how Portsmouth have dropped away. What has happened with them? (Apart from having a complete ****er as manager).




According to many on here WE have a complete ****er of a manager?

Just saying...



Allam’s OUT.