I think you are right stick. Unreliable jumper but back over hurdles where his best Timeform rating was 118+ at Exeter in heavy going almost 2 years ago (his last hurdle run before being sent chasing). He has a ? now but if he were to reproduce that Exeter form (without allowing for the improvement that was expected) he would come into this race on an adjusted Timeform rating of 128+ (cf Night of Passion 125+). Added to that his highest (unadjusted) rating during his chasing stint was 121+ in heavy going at Fontwell in October over 22f with a comment "for all he has the ability to rate higher, he is unlikely to get away with such lapses in better races". A reproduction of that form (againg not allowing for any improvement) would put him in this race with an adjusted Timeform rating of 131+.
He's had one run back over hurdles, over much shorter and apparently lost a shoe.
The big question is whether he will stay the extra distance (bred to prove best short of 3m).
He is potentially well in here so either they are confident he will get the distance or they want one more run under his belt before they clean up over a shorter distance.
I think I'll take your advice and have a 1 point saver but will have to reduce my stake on the fav.
Revised bet therefore (current odds):
Plumpton 15.30
Night Of Passion (9/4 WH & PP) - 6 points
Rocky Bender (7/1 Coral & WH) - 1 point
Kind Of Easy (9/1 B365) - 1 point
stick
If the market is anything to go by, my bet isn't looking too good:
Night Of Passion out to 11/4
Kind Of Easy out to 11/1
Money is piling in on Virginia Ash 5/1 with Coral. I think I'll have to have a point on with PP at 13/2
This means I could be a little out of pocket. But that horse has been out of sorts so the money implies it isn't now. Come on Night of Passion
