Mafia 4

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moreinjuredthanowen said:
i think associating people is fine but extending it to if one is innocent the othe ris or vice versa is dangerous.
Click to expand...

I think as long as you take it as "probably" and don't make anything "certain" then it is OK. Have to be flexible and willing to realize when you're wrong- but it's fair to link people and say- if such a person is guilty- then X might be too. It's when you get stuck in one mindset and stop being flexible you're in trouble.

Nothing wrong with doing a complete U-turn when you realise the theory you thought was correct turns out to be wrong.

moreinjuredthanowen said:
I think valley has to be suspected for the move but the question must be do WE as town let this take us to a place where the whole day vanishes in a cloud of everyone piling on valley and we lose the tie up....

I don't know the answer to that.
Click to expand...

No! We don't pile up on Valley! There is equal chance that IBWT is the guilty one.
 
The artist Billy Can can said:
No but the least we should do is ensure both are in any potential tie.....one appears guilty if not both so we have to have both in the vote surely <ok>
Click to expand...

yes that sounds fair

there is a case neither is guilty but without anything else to go on...........

Voting Table: (Order vertically is from first person voted to most recent person voted for, Order of votes by is first cast listed first, second listed second etc)
[table="width: 500, class: grid, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Nominee[/td]
[td]Votes[/td]
[td]Vote(s) By[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Gerrez[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]AfcFtw, Mummy[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Lucaaas[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]Mito. Vally[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]BRB[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]gerrez, lucaaas[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]IBWT[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]nozzer, billy[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]RHC[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]bodanki[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]sky[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]IBWT[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]afcftw[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]swarbs,brb[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]bodanki[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]RHC[/td]
[/tr]

[/table]

not voted listed alphabetically: Danilo, Skylarker

Table of people with no votes: (listed alphabetically)
[table="width: 500, class: grid, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Nominee[/td]
[td]Votes[/td]
[td]Vote(s) By[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Billy[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Danilo[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]
mummy's milk[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]MITO[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Nozzer[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Swarbs[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Valleygraduate12[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]No lynch[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
 
right.... now its my turn.

valley and IBWT are under suspicions fo rtheir actual votes. I'd rather that than say gerrez who is in danger for not much.

Valley has voted for Lucaaas. this put lucaaaas on 3 votes and in the lead. everyone is suspicious of that and we don't know why so I ask valley to comment. equally it could be done to get us all to come off lucaaas but how can we know.

however there is one thing nobody has done.... and thats to get a reaction

therefore I now vote for VALLEY

lets see what occurs
 
moreinjuredthanowen said:
I think basically both can be suspects but i don't want to see jsut them in a 2 way. Lets get another still up there.
Click to expand...

IBWT is claiming to be coerced.
Valley is not-not claiming to be coerced (but acting like it).

Unless there is a second forced vote (probably not likely) - almost certainly one or both have to be guilty. Bringing a third person into the mix might dilute the chance of us hitting Mafia.
 
Voting Table: (Order vertically is from first person voted to most recent person voted for, Order of votes by is first cast listed first, second listed second etc)
[table="width: 500, class: grid, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Nominee[/td]
[td]Votes[/td]
[td]Vote(s) By[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Gerrez[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]AfcFtw, Mummy[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Lucaaas[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]Valley[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]BRB[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]gerrez, lucaaas[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]IBWT[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]nozzer, billy[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]RHC[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]bodanki[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]sky[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]IBWT[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]afcftw[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]swarbs,brb[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]bodanki[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]RHC[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]valley[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]MITO[/td]
[/tr]


[/table]

not voted listed alphabetically: Danilo, Lucaaas, Skylarker

Table of people with no votes: (listed alphabetically)
[table="width: 500, class: grid, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Nominee[/td]
[td]Votes[/td]
[td]Vote(s) By[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Billy[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Danilo[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]
mummy's milk[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]MITO[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Nozzer[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Swarbs[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]No lynch[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
 
Mummy said:
IBWT is claiming to be coerced.
Valley is not-not claiming to be coerced (but acting like it).

Unless there is a second forced vote (probably not likely) - almost certainly one or both have to be guilty. Bringing a third person into the mix might dilute the chance of us hitting Mafia.
Click to expand...

don't necessarally agree. I think the more in the better. 4/15 are mafia. if we just pick 2 we have just gone with a ploy by one or other and diluted our chances... I'd keep at least 3 up.
 
moreinjuredthanowen said:
however there is one thing nobody has done.... and thats to get a reaction

therefore I now vote for VALLEY

lets see what occurs
Click to expand...


I'll change to I vote for valley too. That should get IBWT and Valley in a tie with AFC (who I don't think should be in it) - if one more person votes for IBWT and Valley each they will be in a coinflip together on 3 votes. (2 more than Sky- so Sky is safe).
 
moreinjuredthanowen said:
don't necessarally agree. I think the more in the better. 4/15 are mafia. if we just pick 2 we have just gone with a ploy by one or other and diluted our chances... I'd keep at least 3 up.
Click to expand...


3 in the pot gives us a 2/3rds chance of hitting town (if the third is not Mafia). 2 in the pot almost certainly (unless hidden rule Astro hasn't told us about) gives us a 50% chance of hitting Mafia (and knowing who to hit the following night if we miss).
 
Do either (or both) RHC or Bodanki feel like changing their current revenge votes? You're obviously free to stick with them, but I'm not sure what purpose they really serve right now.
 
Mummy said:
3 in the pot gives us a 2/3rds chance of hitting town (if the third is not Mafia). 2 in the pot almost certainly (unless hidden rule Astro hasn't told us about) gives us a 50% chance of hitting Mafia (and knowing who to hit the following night if we miss).
Click to expand...

assuming both are not innocent of course

i think

1. we have no history with valley.

2. we have history with biscan.

if one is lying and we only have history to go on it'll be biscan but.... equally the timing and the fact valley was on a bit really he coudl have done more than this and that hurts his case.
 
Voting Table: (Order vertically is from first person voted to most recent person voted for, Order of votes by is first cast listed first, second listed second etc)
[table="width: 500, class: grid, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Nominee[/td]
[td]Votes[/td]
[td]Vote(s) By[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Gerrez[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]AfcFtw[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Lucaaas[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]Valley[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]BRB[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]gerrez, lucaaas[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]IBWT[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]nozzer, billy[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]RHC[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]bodanki[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]sky[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]IBWT[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]afcftw[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]swarbs,brb[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]bodanki[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]RHC[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]valley[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]MITO,mummey[/td]
[/tr]


[/table]

not voted listed alphabetically: Danilo, Lucaaas, Skylarker

Table of people with no votes: (listed alphabetically)
[table="width: 500, class: grid, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Nominee[/td]
[td]Votes[/td]
[td]Vote(s) By[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Billy[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Danilo[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]
mummy's milk[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]MITO[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Nozzer[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Swarbs[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Valleygraduate12[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]No lynch[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
 
moreinjuredthanowen said:
assuming both are not innocent of course

i think

1. we have no history with valley.

2. we have history with biscan.

if one is lying and we only have history to go on it'll be biscan but.... equally the timing and the fact valley was on a bit really he coudl have done more than this and that hurts his case.
Click to expand...



Trying to "play with" the town is definitely a Biscan (when guilty) tactic. We don't know if it is a Valley tactic too- but Valley could be being schooled by Mafia if in it. If for example (not an accusation) Gerrez was Mafia with Valley- I could see him coaching Valley to do the spoof.
 
Recap of my thoughts:


afcftw No Evidence against AFC. Was "potentially saved" by Valley. Been quieter than normal though- which is worth investigator investigating. Not been online so OK. On the Potential Heavy - long short list.
Bodanki' No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
Gerrez No Evidence against. Was "potentially saved" by Valley. On potential Heavy - long short list
Lucaaas No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
MITO No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list. Confused by his wanting to dilute an obvious two way tie where one or both very likely guilty
Nozzer No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
RHC No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
Swarbs No Evidence against. Been fairly quiet On potential Heavy - long short list
Billy No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list

brb No Evidence against
danilo. See above- very quiet- worth investigator investigating at night


InBiscanWeTrust Suspicious first vote. Either under influence of heavy or wants us to think that. I don't want to remove tonight- I want to wait until tomorrow to see what it tells us.
Valley. See above

Mummy - Me. I know that I'm innocent.
Skylarker* - Astro has told us he is innocent. Of course, there could be a twist.
 
The point with a three way tie is that it means people are more likely to react.

If we go with the 2/15 theory we only have 13% of them being mafia. If we go with 3+ it means people are more likely to react and save their mafia friends. I understand your tactic if its after a couple of days and people have clearly sided with each other but we've got basically nothing to work on apart from Gerrez & Valley defending each other and IBWT's suspicious claim as its only the first day. It makes sense to get at least 3 people into the vote IMO...
 
Mummy said:
Recap of my thoughts:


afcftw No Evidence against AFC. Was "potentially saved" by Valley. Been quieter than normal though- which is worth investigator investigating. Not been online so OK. On the Potential Heavy - long short list.
Bodanki' No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
Gerrez No Evidence against. Was "potentially saved" by Valley. On potential Heavy - long short list
Lucaaas No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
MITO No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list. Confused by his wanting to dilute an obvious two way tie where one or both very likely guilty
Nozzer No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
RHC No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
Swarbs No Evidence against. Been fairly quiet On potential Heavy - long short list
Billy No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list

brb No Evidence against
danilo. See above- very quiet- worth investigator investigating at night


InBiscanWeTrust Suspicious first vote. Either under influence of heavy or wants us to think that. I don't want to remove tonight- I want to wait until tomorrow to see what it tells us.
Valley. See above

Mummy - Me. I know that I'm innocent.
Skylarker* - Astro has told us he is innocent. Of course, there could be a twist.
Click to expand...

for the record milk..... i'm looking at the math. i'd rather have a 33% chance based on getting more than 2 up as valley couldv'e just messed up. i have added him to the thing but still just think getting more in tickles more throats and i want to see who coughs a 50/50 base on ibwt being coerced and valley messing up = two innocents worst cast so 50/50 it may be. it could be 50% of zero

are you that confident of it? yeah both are red but is it not just a tint of pink as it is just one event?
 
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