Mafia 4

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A note of caution:

Just because Milk uses fancy colours, makes long detailed posts and has played the game before does not mean people should follow him blindly...
 
Sorry for not replying lads. Just got in from work. Changed vote just to see what would happen. Wasn't forced into changing vote either.
Gerrez is still a cock so I change my vote back to Gerrez now.

Edit, I'm still watching the poster that's got my gut instinct telling me he's a naughty boy.
 
Lucaaas said:
The point with a three way tie is that it means people are more likely to react.

If we go with the 2/15 theory we only have 13% of them being mafia. If we go with 3+ it means people are more likely to react and save their mafia friends. I understand your tactic if its after a couple of days and people have clearly sided with each other but we've got basically nothing to work on apart from Gerrez & Valley defending each other and IBWT's suspicious claim as its only the first day. It makes sense to get at least 3 people into the vote IMO...
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Not necessarily...two people have claimed to be coerced (indirectly). Thus one must be lying...indirectly <laugh> There is quite a lot to work on for once <ok>
 
Things can go mental at the end of the night so before then...

The voting ends at 8pm, so your post needs a time of 7:59pm or earlier on it (and a name in bold) for it to count (all this is assuming UK time).

The forum clock used to be way off the actual time but as far as I can tell is now accurate.

After 8pm can a mod close the thread <ok>

I'll work out what happens during the night and send PMs. There will be a delay because of the PM time limit. Also in case I'm not available to post straight away.

I'll post in the pub or PM a mod or something when I have prepared things and then we go again.
 
At least we know Valley wasnt coerced, so IBWT is probably the coerced one!

Valley dont do that man! LOL

Dont know who to change my vote to, if at all!?

Any sign of Sky yet?
 
moreinjuredthanowen said:
for the record milk..... i'm looking at the math. i'd rather have a 33% chance based on getting more than 2 up as valley couldv'e just messed up. i have added him to the thing but still just think getting more in tickles more throats and i want to see who coughs a 50/50 base on ibwt being coerced and valley messing up = two innocents worst cast so 50/50 it may be. it could be 50% of zero

are you that confident of it? yeah both are red but is it not just a tint of pink as it is just one event?
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I'm using Red to indicate suspect- not to indicate I know they're guilty... perhaps they should be yellow! <ok>



I think there is a good chance one or the other is guilty. (or possibly both). Valley has been on enough times (check out the "now reading" at the bottom of the thread... I do every time) he has had enough chance to say he wasn't coerced. He could be playing a poor tactic as a newbie... but he's read what's being said- if he wants to help town he should say if he's not being coerced.

I think he is being coerced or is mafia. Could be wrong- I don't think it's just a case of being a newbie.

I think a more likely scenario is that Astro has TWO coerced people (which would really throw town off).


So no, I'm not certain of anything- but I think odds are IBWT or Valley (or both) are guilty. I'd lean more towards IBWT because it's a very IBWT style tactic. There again... throwing two fake coerced votes to make the other look innocent would be a very IBWT style tactic too.
 
ValleyGraduate12 said:
Sorry for not replying lads. Just got in from work. Changed vote just to see what would happen. Wasn't forced into changing vote either.
Gerrez is still a cock so I change my vote back to Gerrez now.

Edit, I'm still watching the poster that's got my gut instinct telling me he's a naughty boy.
Click to expand...



Thank you.


OK... then... yes... Pressure off Valley- and means IBWT could be telling truth too... so back to the drawing board.
 
So the situation as i see it through my eyes.....

I voted Gerrez because last time i voted him first up and he got off the hook by him and afc switching votes in the last seconds of the first round to send me out first in the previous game.

So because i voted Gerrez he voted for me....but i switched to afc because he takes the game too seriously.

Valley then oddly votes for Lucas without explanation....then i challenge this and Lucas suddenly switches vote to me....strange behaviour hmmmmmm
 
The artist Billy Can can said:
Not really...now Valley looks twice as suspicious <laugh> Still only two in the running as of yet....and Sky still not safe <whistle>
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I say we make a decision on 3 posters and give them 3 votes each. Because that means Sky will not be in danger (2 votes off lynching/coin toss. 1 vote leaves him open to late vote switch)
 
Bodanki':7282371 said:
At least we know Valley wasnt coerced, so IBWT is probably the coerced one!

Valley dont do that man! LOL

Dont know who to change my vote to, if at all!?

Any sign of Sky yet?
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You don't have to wait for him, you can vote for him now :bandit:
 
More fancy colours... in light of Valley's admission he is not coerced.


Recap of my thoughts:


afcftw No Evidence against AFC. Was "potentially saved" by Valley. Been quieter than normal though- which is worth investigator investigating. Not been online so OK. On the Potential Heavy - long short list.
Bodanki' No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
Gerrez No Evidence against. Was "potentially saved" by Valley. On potential Heavy - long short list
Lucaaas No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
MITO No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list.
Nozzer No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
RHC No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
Swarbs No Evidence against. Been fairly quiet On potential Heavy - long short list
Billy No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list

brb No Evidence against
danilo. See above- very quiet- worth investigator investigating at night


InBiscanWeTrust Suspicious first vote. Either under influence of heavy or wants us to think that. I don't want to remove tonight- I want to wait until tomorrow to see what it tells us.
Valley. Looked suspicious for a while... might still be. Took a long time to say not being coerced. His change of vote and not explaining it for a while is still odd.

Mummy - Me. I know that I'm innocent.
Skylarker* - Astro has told us he is innocent. Of course, there could be a twist.
 
Nozzer said:
If we're going to have a three-way, IBWT, Valley and Greez are the obvious candidates at this stage (on the surface at least).
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The artist Billy Can can said:
Why does everyone presume Valley is off the hook? Not even the whiff of an attempted Mafia fishing trip in all that? :bandit:
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For the moment, I stand by my quote. They still seem the most likely based on the available data.
 
Lucaaas said:
I say we make a decision on 3 posters and give them 3 votes each. Because that means Sky will not be in danger (2 votes off lynching/coin toss. 1 vote leaves him open to late vote switch)
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Well I'm sticking with IBWT...he has to be in the pot as his vote is for SKy (and we can't be certain he ain't Mafia just because he says so)...Valley deserves to be in even if he was just ****ing about so we need an A N Other...looks like Greez for the usual reasons <laugh>
 
Mummy said:
More fancy colours... in light of Valley's admission he is not coerced.


Recap of my thoughts:


afcftw No Evidence against AFC. Was "potentially saved" by Valley. Been quieter than normal though- which is worth investigator investigating. Not been online so OK. On the Potential Heavy - long short list.
Bodanki' No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
Gerrez No Evidence against. Was "potentially saved" by Valley. On potential Heavy - long short list
Lucaaas No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
MITO No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list.
Nozzer No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
RHC No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list
Swarbs No Evidence against. Been fairly quiet On potential Heavy - long short list
Billy No Evidence against. On potential Heavy - long short list

brb No Evidence against
danilo. See above- very quiet- worth investigator investigating at night


InBiscanWeTrust Suspicious first vote. Either under influence of heavy or wants us to think that. I don't want to remove tonight- I want to wait until tomorrow to see what it tells us.
Valley. Looked suspicious for a while... might still be. Took a long time to say not being coerced. His change of vote and not explaining it for a while is still odd.

Mummy - Me. I know that I'm innocent.
Skylarker* - Astro has told us he is innocent. Of course, there could be a twist.
Click to expand...

Not as pretty as previously. You're now less certain to be innocent in my eyes.
 
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