The markets appear calm but there'll still be massive volatility dependant on statements, Q4 forecasts, news on external investments, job losses, politicians comments etc etc etc.
However, there now appears to be a vague timeline in place, during which nothing will drastically change - as we're currently still an EU state and it would appear that this will be the case until a Bill is put before the House in November.
What happens after Article 50 is actually invoked is imo another huge fall in the value of the pound and the markets tanking in the short term at least.
Post that it depends on how quickly a deal to access the free market is done.
Let's be 100% clear, we must have access to the free market, as it accounts for virtually half of our exports, including circa 30% of the total EU financial services sector. The EU leaders have made 2 things crystal clear so far;
1. Negotiations will not commence until we trigger article 50
2. That access to the free market will not be gained without free movement of people an a tariff being paid.
The second point is deemed by the Tories as the prime reason why the UK voted as it did, therefore that suggests that it's a political no, no, to simply accept this demand. So where will that leave us? If we reach a complete stalemate over the free movement issue, then it could take literally years to conclude a deal. A deal that didn't include free movement could either be veto'd by the member states or the compromise could be that we pay a colossal tariff in exchange for some limits on numbers, albeit that solution would go against the fundamental principle of the EU free movement ideal.
Since this referendum was announced global businesses have largely been holding back on capital investment schemes in the UK. As what's the point in setting up a base in Europe when the country you're seeking to base yourself in might not have free access to the huge market that you're seeking to penetrate?
For the entirety of this process that will continue. Worse than that, businesses who are currently based here might consider relocating their facilities to EU member states if the negotiations become protracted and it appears doubtful that a free trade agreement is going to be reached. The likes of Siemens, Vodaphone and Ryanair have already spoken openly about it. Longer term, why would the likes of Nissan continue to build cars in Sunderland for the EU market? Why would the financial sector base itself in London, Leeds or Edinburgh if it can't sell it's services to it's prime market without a tariff?
The longer it goes on, the worse it would get. As GDP would fall, unemployment rise, public services would be cut, taxes would have to be increased, disposable income would drop resulting in yet more contraction of the domestic economy as spending falls. A weak pound would make imports more costly and we have a trade deficit, so inflation increases, putting pressure on the BoE to increase interest rates....it goes on and on. That is as I see it.
The only way to avoid it, is to do a prompt deal with the EU that goes against the primary reason that the Leave vote was carried.
Okay, that is your opinion, this is mine.
We are agreed there will be volatility, but we might disagree on the scale of what is to come.
You now agree with me that there is a timeline and no one will or can be jumping it. Do you now agree that when Article 50 is triggered will be down to the new leadership?
I agree that invoking Article 50 will produce more volatility, but I believe the markets will be prepared for it, so scale will be limited.
I believe the markets will be more settled if they see a well-planned, well negotiated approach to separation, rather than expecting something asap; I do agree that the shorter the period of uncertainty the better.
To be 100% clear is to understand that having access to the free market (Single Market?) can be achieved by degrees, as in shades of grey. The terms will be open for negotiation and will be linked to other strategic needs for both parties.
1. I think lobbying and preparation has already begun.
2. Everything will be negotiable; key EU figures are already voicing this.
3. You don’t get owt for nowt.
I think it is foolish to try and preempt the outcome of the negotiations. There are lots of what-ifs, but, as you say, there is also a will to conclude on the part of both parties.
Yes, inward investment is being withheld, that was expected; how long that continues is another matter. Those already here have voiced their options as an encouragement for early settlement (in relative terms); there might be some movement, but I think I will wait and see what will happen. The Financial Passport issue can be overcome, that has been stated by others already.
I'm sorry, but the rest is just a doom laden story of what might be, there is next to no substance to it, just more what-ifs and good managers make sound provisions for what-ifs.
Your only way to avoid it is the worse possible solution anyone could possibly conceive and certainly not one that any sane political or financial leader would ever consider.
But that’s your opinion from 5hrs ago, what is your opinion now that voting and intentions are made and Carney has spoken; have you heard anything that might change your thoughts?
