Daily Thread - 8th March

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NassauBoard said:
Is the Arkle really competitive? Its a two horse race for me, and I think the form shown by SS should make him an 8/11 shot. Hurricane Fly has a few rivals who I think could test him, including previous winner Binocular, and we have only seen the Fly once this season, albeit in great style, so it could be argued that he is one that might not be all that it seems.

I backed Fly at 5/4 the other day with Bino as a saver, purely because of the value aspect, I will do the same with Al Ferof using the PP offer as I only can see him or SS winning the Arkle.

As for PC, he was the best hurdler of the lot and one bad run doesn't make him an unworthy horse for an Arkle tilt, many a good horse has had a blip in their novice season.

If you gave me the million I would put it on Quevega, however I think she is the right price for her chance, as is Big Bucks.
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Nass, I accept the Arkle hasn't turned out as competitive as some, and I was mightily impressed with SS's last win at Newbury. No, i wouldn't oppose him, even though some might feel his form isn't as good as Al Ferof's. Nonetheless he still has to jump round at Cheltenham- never a gimme for any horse!
I agree that one bad run by PC doesn't make him unworthy but the opposite is likewise true ie.fences aren't hurdles and his chase form could have been achieved by a much lower rated hurdler making the transition to fences. On that basis, I shouldn't be taking 11/4 Peddlers for The Jewson, either. He needs to prove himself to me.
 
the don said:
Stickler, you cant be serious about KGL vs Quevega? I would offer you odds as to whether any horse can get Quevega off the bridle!!
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Lets just say I am looking forward to seeing how close she can get to her. If Quevega has an off day....and she has had one before! I love KGL and cant wait to see her against the best! You better nail the roof down on here if she wins!
 
Plumped for One For Harry in the bumper at 5/1 for a little each way and only bet of the day.

The form of it's race last time doesn't read too badly with the third that day running third to Ron last week.
 
If she beats Quevega (or anything else for that matter) I will be in the poor house.....
 
stick said:
Lets just say I am looking forward to seeing how close she can get to her. If Quevega has an off day....and she has had one before! I love KGL and cant wait to see her against the best! You better nail the roof down on here if she wins!
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If they go a proper pace KGL will get closer than many might expect. If they crawl then she won't place imo.

I just hope the three novices all turn up, certainly makes the Sandown bumper more interesting this year, see if we can find another good mare!!
 
Quel, watch her race against the Nicholls horse, she just doesn't have the turn of foot of Violin Davis that day, but she has stamina in abundance and she seems really game. If they go fast she will keep going, which many mares have failed to do against Quevega. Same goes for Swincombe too, another who wants it fast and furious and I think she will help make it a test.

Quevega is the one to beat, and should win, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her asked more questions than she has in the last renewal
 
Nass, I agree, the best chance they have to beat Quevega is to go fast from the outset and hope she runs out of steam.
On your final point i would say how can she be asked any less questions than last year????
 
I'd agree about this being more difficult than people are giving credit but i think Quevega's strength (or at least one) is her stamina.
 
Lads in all seriousness Quevega is hardly likely to be too troubled by what's up against her this year. Thinking about it this way, you'd have to give Quevega a squeak, a very small one perhaps, but a squeak nonetheless against the mighty Big Bucks in the World Hurdle whereas KGL et al wouldn't be finishing within 2 flights of Big Bucks...

Can't see Quevega being as troubled as people here are fearing myself. Another demolition job.
 
beeforsalmon said:
Lads in all seriousness Quevega is hardly likely to be too troubled by what's up against her this year. Thinking about it this way, you'd have to give Quevega a squeak, a very small one perhaps, but a squeak nonetheless against the mighty Big Bucks in the World Hurdle whereas KGL et al wouldn't be finishing within 2 flights of Big Bucks...

Can't see Quevega being as troubled as people here are fearing myself. Another demolition job.
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I wouldn't give her any chance against Big Bucks. Not at all.
 
NassauBoard said:
I wouldn't give her any chance against Big Bucks. Not at all.
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I'm not saying for a moment I'd expect her to win but seeing as Volver La Vedette is about 14-1 against Big Bucks, and Quevega is a much better mare than VLV (see her first mares hurdle) you'd expect the bookies to be pricing up Quevega as a single figure price, no? Also in Punchestown last season didn't she beat Mourad by a not dissimilar distance to what BB managed at Cheltenham?

I don't think she'd beat him but she's certainly done enough to be worthy of taking him on. Which, in my opinion, is not something you'd be saying about her rivals?
 
She has done enough, but only because she has had time to do enough. She is lining up against three good novices, one of which won the Lanzarote, I think all three are underrated by the handicapper (or perhaps graded horses are overrated) in terms of performance. Given a year or so, potentially one of them could be worthy of a place in a World Hurdle.

As for VLV, no idea as to why she is 14/1, that price is barking. Quevega would be single figures, but that would only be because people thinking 'what if' in the same way they are about Whiskey.
 
But by that theory would there be any horse who should start at lower than 10/1 against Big Bucks?

I'm under no illusions as to the champs ability but I'd give Quevega a chance with her allowance to upset him. I think she's top draw and you could argue she's not faced a real test either. When was the last time Quevega had to battle to win and that includes the Irish Champion last year when she put in a stinker at the last?
 
VLV is a funny horse. Her reputation at th top table was built by beating Mourad in races pre Christmas 2011 in slowly run small field contests. She's good no doubt but I'd say not as good as is widely accepted at the moment.
 
Whether we think Quevega can beat Big Bucks or not is an irrelevance: I was merely adding to illustrate my point the superiority of Quevega over her rivals using BB as a benchmark! You could name any price you want against KGL in the World Hurdle! You may very well be right Nass about KGL et al will improve enough to be considered good enough to take on Big Bucks one day but that day has still to come!

To go back to my original point I think Quevega will win this extremely comfortably (as you'd expect at her price) against these rivals. If I was borrowing Tam's hypothetical million it would be going on her! I truly think she's the best NH mare we've seen for sometime and I don't think we'll have another for many years to come.
 
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