Nassau, I just had a look at day 1 and apart from the short priced favourites I like the look of Quantitativeeasing (7/1) in the 2.40 and Hunt Ball (15/2) in the last. I see Quevega is into 1/2 but tbh with virtually no competition this is still THE banker of the week.
Biggest plot horse at Barbury Castle if you ask me - just happened to be "not right" for the Donny and Kempton races keeping his mark down
Funny how we see things differntly, I make Hold on Julio an absolute beast of a horse. HOJ kicked half the Railway fences out the ground and went past a 137 rated horse (Qhillimar) on the bridle last time out, won by 9 lengths could easily have been 29. I genuinely think this horse has so much in hand he could make the JLT look a bit silly - but his jumping does need to improve - this will no doubt be discussed at length by Choc on Monday night (preview)
Nass, I don't think Sprinter Sacre should be shorter for a competitive race like the Arkle. In fact I wouldn't touch him with a bargepole at that price! Just think for a minute...compare SS at 10/11 with Hurricane Fly at 10/11; Big Bucks at 8/13; and Quevega at 4/7. You have a million pounds to bet. Notwithstanding he's a tremendous prospect, SS has to negotiate two miles of one of the most demanding courses on earth- and he's got to beat some pretty good opposition. It's no contest , is it? There's no way SS would even get a second thought for my money. You've got the best Champion Hurdler since Istabraq at the same price- and probably the best staying hurdler ever (Big Bucks) at not much shorter. As far as Peddler's Cross' defection goes, both horses were ridiculously priced ante-post at 2/1 and 3/1. Also, PC's chase form was nothing much, so why should SS shorten further. I'll be interested in seeing SS's price on the day- I expect it to drift.
Is the Arkle really competitive? Its a two horse race for me, and I think the form shown by SS should make him an 8/11 shot. Hurricane Fly has a few rivals who I think could test him, including previous winner Binocular, and we have only seen the Fly once this season, albeit in great style, so it could be argued that he is one that might not be all that it seems. I backed Fly at 5/4 the other day with Bino as a saver, purely because of the value aspect, I will do the same with Al Ferof using the PP offer as I only can see him or SS winning the Arkle. As for PC, he was the best hurdler of the lot and one bad run doesn't make him an unworthy horse for an Arkle tilt, many a good horse has had a blip in their novice season. If you gave me the million I would put it on Quevega, however I think she is the right price for her chance, as is Big Bucks.
I like the horse Grizz and lost ante post money when he defected next time out. Has missed his Festival prep so very opposable. Also in the cold light of day his Sandown doesnt read as impressively as I thought at the time. He was well in that day and he wont kick his way through Cheltenham fences. He is pretty much a novice!
Certainly very well in that day Stick but he also put plenty of distance between himself and Neptune Collonges who then ran a cracker up at Haydock in the National Trial - he may have been getting just shy of two stone from NC but he breezed past the horse like he wasn't there, I honestly think this horse has got alot more in the tank, and despite being a 9yo he can improve further because of his inexperience.
Yes Namned ;-) Grizz. The enigma that is Netune Collonges ran a belter that day but I dont believe that makes it a solid form line. In reality it was a pretty weak event.
I dont see how people can say Lon Run and Kauto are too short when there is such a lack of credible opposition. Whats going to beat them? The Irish cuddy of Mullins? Weird Al? Captain Chris? I cant see one of the top two not winning!
I think Hold on Julio has a good chance but I just think Quantitativeeasing has the form around Cheltenham. I think 3 have good chances in the Arkle and I also expect SS to drift on the day. Scotsirish should also win the Cross Country - would have won there in December until he decided to go the wrong way!
Stick, true, but also well beaten was Any Currency who has run some fair races and only a few weeks earlier had run Deep Purple quite close and that horse has mixed it at the top table. Also in the race was Wymott who came within 6 lengths of winning a Hennessy a month beforehand, OK he's disappointed since but to go 30+ lengths away from a horse with that form you aren't a bad animal. I could be way off mark here but I think he could be a very decent horse...
Stickler, you cant be serious about KGL vs Quevega? I would offer you odds as to whether any horse can get Quevega off the bridle!!
