Off Topic Coronavirus
- Thread starter Sooperhoop
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You Canucks seemed to have surged from near last to close to first in the jab stakes, how did that happen? Nice work though.
Don't tell me Peru is on the green list or the must travel to destination this year.......
Seriously though we're heading for a 4th wave expected in August and September as numbers having the Delta variant start to rise. Indoor eating and Drinking has been delayed by 2 weeks until 19th July in the hope that vaccinations can be ramped up again.....sound familiar? Hoping to get my 2nd jab week after next, time shortened fro 12 weeks to 8 weeks as those of us in the 60 to 69 cohort were left in a bit of limbo as the over 70's were given their 2 jabs early and those in the 45 - 60 age range were given either the Jensen single jab or Pfizer at 3 week intervals and were fully vaccinated. It suddenly dawned on the powers that be that the 60+ were still at risk, so they changed tack 2 weeks ago........
Good job it's summer and the weather has been ok so at least we can dine outdoors if we want to go out........
No I forgot Kiwi, so reading it now.
So first thing it was conducted using Israeli data. Israel is really an outlier in this pandemic. Never got a really big hit from the virus, and nearly everyone is now vaccinated. They were the first nation to go for wholesale vaccination too remember
The authors say this themselves in the article
The field study was somewhat specific to the situation in Israel, and studies in other countries and other populations or other post-marketing surveillance studies might reveal more beneficial clinical effect sizes when the prevalence of the infection is higher.
Their death rate is 71/100,000 population…lets compare to UK 195/100,000, USA 183 and say Peru which is “top” with 595 deaths per 100,000.
One could ask whether the fact they got the vaccinations done before the pandemic got a hold is the reason.
So by that reasoning Kiwi…
Every child is given a polio vaccine now (in 1950, there were 750 deaths and 7500 cases of paralysis in UK alone), now the UK is polio free. However there are still some cases of adverse side effects to the polio vaccine. One of the worse is anaphylaxis . In the UK between 1997 and 2003 there were a total of 130 reports of anaphylaxis following ALL immunisations. Around 117 million doses of vaccines were given in the UK during this period. This means that the overall rate of anaphylaxis is around 1 in 900,000.
There are few deaths from Covid, because the vaccine works...point 1
They also say that the data depends on self reporting, and is not “checked”.
Basically, those are people who just died within a certain period of getting the vaccine, not that the vaccine caused their deaths
They do not say what the adverse effects are, they do not say the cause of death in the people who got the vaccine and then died..point2
So this report is very much like the other report from USA and circulating on Instragram recently that stated:- An Instagram post has claimed that the Covid-19 vaccines have killed 3,362 people in less than four months. This is roughly the number of deaths reported in the US following Covid-19 vaccination between December 2020 and April 2021, but there’s no evidence that these deaths were caused by the vaccine.
There are “ Lies, damn lies and statistics” as Mark Twain said.
It is a poor study
Just remember...We have a daily infection rate similar to last winter, but we have a daily death rate in the low teens and we are thinking of getting completely out of lockdown in 8 days time. We have 60,000 at Wembley tomorrow night, and you can nearly go on holiday.
The Vaccine has given millions of us our lives back...
This is absolutely true
You can take a single cell now...and amplify up a small sequence of DNA from it...if you try hard enough
BUT
by setting the limits you make sure what you do is meaningful....this is determined by the scientist and the control bodies (diagnostic criteria). It is done by setting suitable controls
AND HE NEVER SAID IT EITHER
[Dr Mullis] said that this PCR test was not made to detect any type of infectious disease. It’s designed to pick up a signature of DNA and RNA of the person being tested.”
There is absolutely no evidence that the inventor of the PCR process said this. PCR is used for a number of scientific processes, and in general, it amplifies bits of genetic information so that they can be detected within samples. But PCR tests are specific to the DNA they are testing for, whether that’s of a person or a virus, so aren’t “designed” to pick up the genetic material of the person being tested.
More false facts on the internet I am afraid Kiwi
Beth, I’ve seen a story that the gap between jabs is going to be cut to 4 weeks. I know this is more in line with the trials, especially for Pfizer, but we now have more real world evidence than for just about any other treatment and as far as I understand that all points to a longer gap for the AZ vaccine being more effective, and certainly more than the original 3 weeks for Pfizer. I’ve also heard that Pfizer are saying that protection for double jabbed people drops from over 90% to about 64% after six months, so are recommending a booster around then. I’m trying to work out whether both this and the handily flexible stuff on gaps between jabs are to do with science, commerce or politics. What do you think?
I’m pretty sure the cut in time would be about politics, encouraging uptake so that younger people have a better chance of a summer holiday abroad. The uptake drops alarmingly through the age groups, over 90% for the over 50s, 75% for 30 to 45 and in the 50s for 18-25. Less than 100,000 first jabs a day from a peak of over 500,000, and we are assured that there is no shortage of supply of Pfizer vaccine. Also heard that, come September, when everyone will have had the chance to be double jabbed, COVID passports will be needed to get into pubs and clubs, a pretty crude bribe/threat to get the young on board, but gets my vote.
Our GP friend was round yesterday, told us that her daughter had planned a small gathering in their garden to celebrate her 17th birthday. But 18 of the 20 who were to attend were in isolation, and a couple of them quite ill. This thing is now really spreading like wildfire through the younger members of the population, and simply because of the huge volumes (30,000 a day expected to rise to 100,000 by the end of the month) even if most will not get seriously ill, the sheer numbers will mean, even if it’s a tiny proportion, a big number will end up in hospital. The SAGE forecast of two weeks ago of hospitalisation numbers is already 30% below the reality. Thankfully the numbers of deaths really do seem to be remaining low, but who knows what the levels of long COVID will be.
I’m not sure this is going the way we want. Javid has said that his objective is to stop the priority waiting list for non COVID treatment from reaching 13 million. The more beds which are taken up with COVID patients, and the more restrictions within hospitals to prevent the spread of infection, the less chance he has. He is an aggressive ‘back to normal’ merchant, but I suspect his approach may actually delay normality.
I don’t know why mask wearing has become such a totemic symbol of ‘freedom’ (if not wearing a mask is freedom that’s a pretty low bar), don’t see why the minor inconvenience of continuing to wear these in enclosed spaces can’t remain a rule as opposed to ‘relying on people to act responsibly’ which only takes a tiny minority to ignore to **** it up for everyone.
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Panorama on the BBC tonight all about Long Covid and the devestation it is leaving in it's wake. It's estimated there are now 2million Long Covid sufferers in the UK, from all age groups including children. Estimated recovery time is up to 3 years, with a small percentage never recovering. Big concerns from the medical community that relaxing all restrictions will expose countless others to Long Covid.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000xwjg/panorama-long-covid-will-i-ever-get-better?page=1
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000xwjg/panorama-long-covid-will-i-ever-get-better?page=1
New Zealand children falling ill in high numbers due to Covid ‘immunity debt’
Doctors say children haven’t been exposed to range of bugs due to lockdowns, distancing and sanitiser and their immune systems are suffering
The Wellington hospital in New Zealand. The city has 46 children hospitalised with respiratory illnesses. Photograph: Dave Lintott/REX/Shutterstock
Tess McClure in Christchurch
@tessairini
Thu 8 Jul 2021 05.50 BST
New Zealand hospitals are experiencing the payoff of “immunity debt” created by Covid-19 lockdowns, with wards flooded by babies with a potentially-deadly respiratory virus, doctors have warned.
Wellington has 46 children currently hospitalised for respiratory illnesses including respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV. A number are infants, and many are on oxygen. Other hospitals are also experiencing a rise in cases that are straining their resources – with some delaying surgeries or converting playrooms into clinical space.
RSV is a common respiratory illness. In adults, it generally only produces very mild symptoms – but it can make young children extremely ill, or even be fatal. The size and seriousness of New Zealand’s outbreak is likely being fed by what some paediatric doctors have called an “immunity debt” – where people don’t develop immunity to other viruses suppressed by Covid lockdowns, causing cases to explode down the line.
New Zealand not willing to risk UK-style ‘live with Covid’ policy, says Jacinda Ardern
Read more
Epidemiologist and public health professor Michael Baker used the metaphor of forest brushfires: if a year or two have passed without fire, there is more fuel on the ground to feed the flames. When a fire finally comes, it burns much more fiercely. “What we’re seeing now is we’ve accumulated a whole lot of susceptible children that have missed out on exposure – so now they’re seeing it for the first time,” Baker said.
The “immunity debt” phenomenon occurs because measures like lockdowns, hand-washing, social distancing and masks are not only effective at controlling Covid-19. They also suppress the spread of other illnesses that transmit in a similar way, including the flu, common cold, and lesser-known respiratory illnesses like RSA. In New Zealand, lockdowns last winter led to a 99.9% reduction in flu cases and a 98% reduction in RSV - and near-eliminated the spike of excess deaths New Zealand usually experiences during winter.
“This positive collateral effect in the short term is welcome, as it prevents additional overload of the healthcare system,” a collective of French doctors wrote in a May 2021 study of immunity debt. But in the long term, it can create problems of its own: if bacterial and viral infections aren’t circulating among children, they don’t develop immunity, which leads to larger outbreaks down the line.
“The lack of immune stimulation… induced an “immunity debt” which could have negative consequences when the pandemic is under control and [public health intervientions] are lifted,” the doctors wrote. “The longer these periods of ‘viral or bacterial low-exposure’ are, the greater the likelihood of future epidemics.”
New Zealand has reported nearly 1,000 RSV cases in the past five weeks, according to the Institute of Environmental Science and Research. The usual average is 1,743 over the full 29-week winter season. Australia is also experiencing a surge, with overcrowded Victoria hospitals also hit by unusually high rates of RSV.
‘Last one standing’: Delta variant poses threat to New Zealand’s Covid-free bubble
Read more
Peaks like the current outbreak don’t necessarily mean the country will have more RSV cases overall, Baker says – it may just be that all the cases are grouped together, instead of spread out over several years. But even that can cause major problems. “If you get a big peak it can overwhelm your health system, or put real pressure on it, which we’re seeing with RSV,” Baker said.
The current outbreak is already stretching New Zealand’s hospitals. At Middlemore hospital in Auckland, a playroom has been converted into a clinical space with 11 special care baby cots. Health boards in Auckland and Canterbury have postponed surgeries to divert resources into children’s wards. A number of hospitals have asked children under 12 not to visit, to try to avoid spreading the virus. John Tait, chief medical officer for the Wellington area’s district health boards said the region had 46 children hospitalised, including two in intensive care. Those numbers were “continually changing as patients are discharged and others admitted,” he said.
Usually, people experience near-universal exposure to RSV as children, Baker said, with most exposed in their first year of life.
“If you remove that exposure for a period then you will have a bigger cohort of unexposed children, and therefore – as you can see we have happening at the moment – it can sustain a much bigger outbreak when they are eventually exposed to the virus.”
While RSV is a common cause of winter hospitalisation of children, elderly people and people with suppressed immune systems are also vulnerable. New Zealand’s director-general of health, Dr Ashley Bloomfield, said he was “certainly concerned about the sharp surge in RSV cases”.
“We had very little RSV last year,” he said. “There’s some speculation that [the current outbreak] may be partly exacerbated by the fact we didn’t have any last year and so there is a bigger pool of children who are susceptible to it.”
Doctors say children haven’t been exposed to range of bugs due to lockdowns, distancing and sanitiser and their immune systems are suffering
You must log in or register to see images
The Wellington hospital in New Zealand. The city has 46 children hospitalised with respiratory illnesses. Photograph: Dave Lintott/REX/Shutterstock
Tess McClure in Christchurch
@tessairini
Thu 8 Jul 2021 05.50 BST
New Zealand hospitals are experiencing the payoff of “immunity debt” created by Covid-19 lockdowns, with wards flooded by babies with a potentially-deadly respiratory virus, doctors have warned.
Wellington has 46 children currently hospitalised for respiratory illnesses including respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV. A number are infants, and many are on oxygen. Other hospitals are also experiencing a rise in cases that are straining their resources – with some delaying surgeries or converting playrooms into clinical space.
RSV is a common respiratory illness. In adults, it generally only produces very mild symptoms – but it can make young children extremely ill, or even be fatal. The size and seriousness of New Zealand’s outbreak is likely being fed by what some paediatric doctors have called an “immunity debt” – where people don’t develop immunity to other viruses suppressed by Covid lockdowns, causing cases to explode down the line.
You must log in or register to see images
New Zealand not willing to risk UK-style ‘live with Covid’ policy, says Jacinda Ardern
Read more
Epidemiologist and public health professor Michael Baker used the metaphor of forest brushfires: if a year or two have passed without fire, there is more fuel on the ground to feed the flames. When a fire finally comes, it burns much more fiercely. “What we’re seeing now is we’ve accumulated a whole lot of susceptible children that have missed out on exposure – so now they’re seeing it for the first time,” Baker said.
The “immunity debt” phenomenon occurs because measures like lockdowns, hand-washing, social distancing and masks are not only effective at controlling Covid-19. They also suppress the spread of other illnesses that transmit in a similar way, including the flu, common cold, and lesser-known respiratory illnesses like RSA. In New Zealand, lockdowns last winter led to a 99.9% reduction in flu cases and a 98% reduction in RSV - and near-eliminated the spike of excess deaths New Zealand usually experiences during winter.
“This positive collateral effect in the short term is welcome, as it prevents additional overload of the healthcare system,” a collective of French doctors wrote in a May 2021 study of immunity debt. But in the long term, it can create problems of its own: if bacterial and viral infections aren’t circulating among children, they don’t develop immunity, which leads to larger outbreaks down the line.
“The lack of immune stimulation… induced an “immunity debt” which could have negative consequences when the pandemic is under control and [public health intervientions] are lifted,” the doctors wrote. “The longer these periods of ‘viral or bacterial low-exposure’ are, the greater the likelihood of future epidemics.”
New Zealand has reported nearly 1,000 RSV cases in the past five weeks, according to the Institute of Environmental Science and Research. The usual average is 1,743 over the full 29-week winter season. Australia is also experiencing a surge, with overcrowded Victoria hospitals also hit by unusually high rates of RSV.
You must log in or register to see images
‘Last one standing’: Delta variant poses threat to New Zealand’s Covid-free bubble
Read more
Peaks like the current outbreak don’t necessarily mean the country will have more RSV cases overall, Baker says – it may just be that all the cases are grouped together, instead of spread out over several years. But even that can cause major problems. “If you get a big peak it can overwhelm your health system, or put real pressure on it, which we’re seeing with RSV,” Baker said.
The current outbreak is already stretching New Zealand’s hospitals. At Middlemore hospital in Auckland, a playroom has been converted into a clinical space with 11 special care baby cots. Health boards in Auckland and Canterbury have postponed surgeries to divert resources into children’s wards. A number of hospitals have asked children under 12 not to visit, to try to avoid spreading the virus. John Tait, chief medical officer for the Wellington area’s district health boards said the region had 46 children hospitalised, including two in intensive care. Those numbers were “continually changing as patients are discharged and others admitted,” he said.
Usually, people experience near-universal exposure to RSV as children, Baker said, with most exposed in their first year of life.
“If you remove that exposure for a period then you will have a bigger cohort of unexposed children, and therefore – as you can see we have happening at the moment – it can sustain a much bigger outbreak when they are eventually exposed to the virus.”
While RSV is a common cause of winter hospitalisation of children, elderly people and people with suppressed immune systems are also vulnerable. New Zealand’s director-general of health, Dr Ashley Bloomfield, said he was “certainly concerned about the sharp surge in RSV cases”.
“We had very little RSV last year,” he said. “There’s some speculation that [the current outbreak] may be partly exacerbated by the fact we didn’t have any last year and so there is a bigger pool of children who are susceptible to it.”
Still on the road to recovery. She's miles better than she was, but still has a wide range of symptoms that flare up - mainly fatigue and muscle pain all down one side. She's back to work, but only doing 3 days a week at the moment as she's exhausted come the third shift Was strange watching Panorama, as she could have made that film herself - the reporter had almost exactly same symptoms.
‘Personal responsibility’ under pressure, unsurprisingly. It only really works if nearly everyone takes it seriously, and if guidance is crystal clear.
Half a million people pinged by the NHS app to self isolate, expected to hit 10 million over the next few weeks, 800k kids off school, the vast majority have/would test negative, many already double jabbed (but have to wait until 16 August to be exempt from isolation for some reason). Many businesses with 5-10% of their workforce isolating, struggling to maintain normal operations. But the app is ‘guidance’ not compulsory, though a legal grey area if an employer instructs an employee to come into work.
I’m beginning to suspect that the government has implicitly decided that now is the time to go for the dreaded ‘herd immunity’ through a combination of vaccination and infection, because there will always be a group who won’t get vaccinated and it’s less damaging to the NHS for this to rip now rather than in the winter. But the huge numbers involved make this a leap into the dark in terms of consequences. As always, if this is the strategy I’d be fine with it if explicitly stated and if the guidance was clear and straightforward to implement.
Half a million people pinged by the NHS app to self isolate, expected to hit 10 million over the next few weeks, 800k kids off school, the vast majority have/would test negative, many already double jabbed (but have to wait until 16 August to be exempt from isolation for some reason). Many businesses with 5-10% of their workforce isolating, struggling to maintain normal operations. But the app is ‘guidance’ not compulsory, though a legal grey area if an employer instructs an employee to come into work.
I’m beginning to suspect that the government has implicitly decided that now is the time to go for the dreaded ‘herd immunity’ through a combination of vaccination and infection, because there will always be a group who won’t get vaccinated and it’s less damaging to the NHS for this to rip now rather than in the winter. But the huge numbers involved make this a leap into the dark in terms of consequences. As always, if this is the strategy I’d be fine with it if explicitly stated and if the guidance was clear and straightforward to implement.
How many of the half a million are self-isolating, I wonder. You can get pinged if your next door neighbour is positive, even if your nearest contact is through a brick wall. You can also get pinged if you go to a pub and someone positive comes in later, even if you've already left by then.
How come the unwitty Witty just keeps shtum when johnson baffles on about 'freedom day' and the link between hospitalisation and deaths been broken, only to come out and say we could be back in lockdown in 5 weeks? Scientists across the globe are basically calling us 'an experiment'. Is it too much too soon?
We are definitely seeing more cases again….at one now. 26 year old, breathing too quick….going to hospital
2 weeks from now and half the country will be isolating anyway, nevermind a lock down!
All the warning signs are there, higher infection rates, doubling every few weeks. Scientists, doctors etc saying its going to be chaos. The Dutch as an example, having to go back in to lockdown. Not sure how their vaccination programme is though compared to ours. Ive got a very bad feeling about monday to say the least.