we have no accurate way of measuring the real number of new infections a day. We are only testing people ill enough to go to hospital, a tiny fraction of infections. Death rate are the only reliable measure I think.
Must confess that between childcare and the day job I've not actually had any time to properly read up on all of this, but if the protocol for actually getting tested stays the same, wouldn't number of new infections still be a valid indicator, despite not truly reflecting the actual number of cases? Will defer to you on this one however, as I really haven't properly read up on it. Other half is 'on the front line' as a doctor so I'm suddenly juggling a small person and the day job.