Iv asked for a price on Un De Sceaux making all.
Joking aside- I saw Free Eagle quoted by Stan James. What- he's gonna run in between Hong Kong stud duty is he?
absolute robbers.Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – 2 October 2016, Chantilly
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Iv asked for a price on Un De Sceaux making all.
Joking aside- I saw Free Eagle quoted by Stan James. What- he's gonna run in between Hong Kong stud duty is he?
absolute robbers.
The good half of Saturdays "stellar field" are entered, plus the best older Horse in Europe, the best 3yo in Japan and of course, Europes Champion Filly.
A very average crop this year m9. Looks a Grade 2/3 class race once you take off your blinkers. Hth
Wee birdy told me you were heavy on Hawkbill on Saturday, [HASHTAG]#topjudgealright[/HASHTAG]
A very average crop this year m9. Looks a Grade 2/3 class race once you take off your blinkers. Hth
Wee birdy told me you were heavy on Hawkbill on Saturday, [HASHTAG]#topjudgealright[/HASHTAG]
I never said it was a great race, ive been saying for a long time its a shallow race, but strange that you were waxing lyrical about half the field 2 days ago, now they are donkeys because Minding got exposed as not quite as good as you thought.
Its a good thing about zero of my confidence comes from the form then. The only reason your dissing this filly is me, an unbeaten double classic winner, so petty. Never seen anyone so biased. Ive gave Minding her due all season, never once did I consider her an Arc winner though, but great filly in her own right.
I notice So Mi Dar is entered in a listed race at Yarmouth on Wednesday. It's probably a bit late for her to go to the Arc but if she runs and runs well she could be interesting. I would think the Filles and Mares race at the Champions weekend would be the most likely of options for her.
Some bits on Almanzor and La Cressonniere
Most of the comments on Almanzor have pointed to his sire Wootton Bassett. He was a high-class 2yo who won over 7f in France. This Group 1 was to be his last victory and he spent his last few races as a 3yo running over 6f (he did run in the French 2000G and James Palace Stakes). All credit to the French for snapping him up as a stallion. It will be interesting to see how he progresses. He comes from the Mr Prospector/Zafonic line and even the exploits of his sire, Ifraaj, would lead you to believe Wootton Bassett is most likely to get fast horses up to a mile.
When you look at Almanzor's distaff you immediately realise you are in Aga Khan territory and not only that but a Boussac family that the Aga Khan purchased back in the mid-'70s. Almanzor's dam is called Darkova and is by the little known US sire Maria's Mon who comes from the Raise a Native line. Raise a Native is the sire of Mr Prospector, so the closest inbreeding to this sire in Almanzor is a remote 6 X 6. Darkova's dam Darkara (by Halling) was owned by the Aga Khan and won over 16f as a 3yo. She is a daughter of his mare Darlbayda (by Doyoun) whom he sold at the sales to The Queen in foal to Dubai Destination. That foal produced a filly called Sally Forth who also won over 16f but was not the class of her half-sister. Sally Forth was surprisingly sold by The Royal Stud after producing 2 colt foals by Bernardini, so they have no representative. The second of these was the useful colt Forth Bridge who's best bit of form now looks his 2nd to Leger winner Harbour Law. (Looks as if the sale of Sally Forth could be a mistake). For Almanzor this is where the stamina comes from and it seems he gets 10f easily and could get further.
When you move to La Cressonniere we are back to the Royal Stud again, but more on that later. What is refreshing about her pedigree is that she is a daughter of the very promising Le Havre who represents the Blushing Groom line. It would be nice to have a really good representative of this sire line to compete with the Northern Dancer line stallions. Le Havre obviously got 10f without issue but his distaff pedigree has some very stout members that would suggest he could pass on more stamina than he had.
As regards La Cressonniere bottom half her dam was a non-winner and her grand-dam the unraced Lobmille. However this filly was by Mill Reef and out of a full-sister to the Queen's 1000G and French Oaks winner Highclere. This is the top Royal family, and the family of Nashwan etc.. Nashwan was by Blushing Groom out of a daughter of Highclere so using Le Havre introduces the mix of stallions that gave us that dual Classic winner. I have little doubt that La Cressonniere will get the trip of the Arc. It's just a shame that it's 30+ years since the Queen had a champion from her family.
Most of the comments on Almanzor have pointed to his sire Wootton Bassett. He was a high-class 2yo who won over 7f in France. This Group 1 was to be his last victory and he spent his last few races as a 3yo running over 6f (he did run in the French 2000G and James Palace Stakes). All credit to the French for snapping him up as a stallion. It will be interesting to see how he progresses. He comes from the Mr Prospector/Zafonic line and even the exploits of his sire, Ifraaj, would lead you to believe Wootton Bassett is most likely to get fast horses up to a mile.
When you look at Almanzor's distaff you immediately realise you are in Aga Khan territory and not only that but a Boussac family that the Aga Khan purchased back in the mid-'70s. Almanzor's dam is called Darkova and is by the little known US sire Maria's Mon who comes from the Raise a Native line. Raise a Native is the sire of Mr Prospector, so the closest inbreeding to this sire in Almanzor is a remote 6 X 6. Darkova's dam Darkara (by Halling) was owned by the Aga Khan and won over 16f as a 3yo. She is a daughter of his mare Darlbayda (by Doyoun) whom he sold at the sales to The Queen in foal to Dubai Destination. That foal produced a filly called Sally Forth who also won over 16f but was not the class of her half-sister. Sally Forth was surprisingly sold by The Royal Stud after producing 2 colt foals by Bernardini, so they have no representative. The second of these was the useful colt Forth Bridge who's best bit of form now looks his 2nd to Leger winner Harbour Law. (Looks as if the sale of Sally Forth could be a mistake). For Almanzor this is where the stamina comes from and it seems he gets 10f easily and could get further.
When you move to La Cressonniere we are back to the Royal Stud again, but more on that later. What is refreshing about her pedigree is that she is a daughter of the very promising Le Havre who represents the Blushing Groom line. It would be nice to have a really good representative of this sire line to compete with the Northern Dancer line stallions. Le Havre obviously got 10f without issue but his distaff pedigree has some very stout members that would suggest he could pass on more stamina than he had.
As regards La Cressonniere bottom half her dam was a non-winner and her grand-dam the unraced Lobmille. However this filly was by Mill Reef and out of a full-sister to the Queen's 1000G and French Oaks winner Highclere. This is the top Royal family, and the family of Nashwan etc.. Nashwan was by Blushing Groom out of a daughter of Highclere so using Le Havre introduces the mix of stallions that gave us that dual Classic winner. I have little doubt that La Cressonniere will get the trip of the Arc. It's just a shame that it's 30+ years since the Queen had a champion from her family.
Any news from anywhere regarding plans for her. The last I saw they were taking their time with her and planned an autumn campaign. What should be a fairly simple task for her on Wednesday should tell them whether she will be ready for a crack at the Arc. Her pedigree suggests (to me) that she will improve for a step up in trip. I see Dettori rides on Wednesday (as he did in her last 2 wins). I also notice that, on her début, Rob Havlin was on board; so she probably had a gentle introduction in her only 2yo race as late as October. To me that suggests a late maturer. The fact that her dam, after a mating to Frankel,was returned to Dubawi for a repeat mating last year, indicates how pleased they must have been with the outcome of the first mating.
I would like to see So Mi Dar stroll to a comfortable victory on Wednesday and then to see she is a confirmed Arc runner with Dettori a definite booking. That would be enough for me to believe this is a 3 horse race (Postponed, Water Cress and So Mi Dar)
Hadn't thought of that. If she is ready enough to race and do herself justice by then it would say something if they did go for the Arc. You're probably right though, that should be the easier option. That is over 2f shorter. PP has her at 6/1 though so that would also indicate the Prix de L'Opera
The Arc betting is looking a bit of a guessing game at the moment:
7/2 Postponed (very likely to show up)
6/1 La Cressonniere (very likely to show up)
7/1 Almanzor (not definitely a starter)
8/1 Makahiki (very likely to show up as he has come a long way)
10/1 Found (presumably the Ballydoyle first string)
12/1 Harzand (on the easy list; hardly had a great prep race)
20/1 Order Of St George (was the Melbourne Cup not the plan?)
20/1 Minding (will the Prix de l’Opera or Champion Stakes be preferred?)
20/1 Protectionist (owners thought to prefer this to Melbourne Cup)
25/1 New Bay (hardly had a great prep race)
25/1 Seventh Heaven (no word yet on her participation)
25/1 Idaho (did not even finish prep race if this is the plan)
33/1 Silverware (very likely to show up, won prep race over course and distance)
33/1 Left Hand (very likely to show up, won prep race over course and distance)
33/1 Midterm (no word yet on his participation)
33/1 Fascinating Rock (no word yet on his participation)
33/1 So Mi Dar (owner has already stated Prix de l’Opera as preference)
7/2 Postponed (very likely to show up)
6/1 La Cressonniere (very likely to show up)
7/1 Almanzor (not definitely a starter)
8/1 Makahiki (very likely to show up as he has come a long way)
10/1 Found (presumably the Ballydoyle first string)
12/1 Harzand (on the easy list; hardly had a great prep race)
20/1 Order Of St George (was the Melbourne Cup not the plan?)
20/1 Minding (will the Prix de l’Opera or Champion Stakes be preferred?)
20/1 Protectionist (owners thought to prefer this to Melbourne Cup)
25/1 New Bay (hardly had a great prep race)
25/1 Seventh Heaven (no word yet on her participation)
25/1 Idaho (did not even finish prep race if this is the plan)
33/1 Silverware (very likely to show up, won prep race over course and distance)
33/1 Left Hand (very likely to show up, won prep race over course and distance)
33/1 Midterm (no word yet on his participation)
33/1 Fascinating Rock (no word yet on his participation)
33/1 So Mi Dar (owner has already stated Prix de l’Opera as preference)
My thoughts exactly; have backed both!!!! If 'value' is your 'game' these two will be a lot shorter on the PMU.
Especially interested in Silverwave after watching the 2015 'Arc'. Finished well, beaten 5L in what I judge was a better field. Also seems to be in better form this year.
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There are perfectly good grounds for looking at either Left Hand or Silverwave in an open year.
The filly won a sub-standard Prix Vermeille, with Endless Time, probably only really a Group 2 horse, close enough to suggest that it was not a vintage renewal. However, Carlos Laffon-Parias’s chestnut has not been raced excessively, winning both her races since finishing half a length second to La Cressonniere in the Prix de Diane, and we definitely know that she stays.
It seems perfectly clear that Silverwave has been trained for the Arc and he was a respectable fifth last term in what looked a much better quality race than this year will present. The Prix Foy was just an exercise gallop with a nice sprint to the line over the last couple of furlongs.
The fact that Maxim Guyon is contracted to ride Left Hand at Chantilly means that Pascal Bary’s colt will be sought after by quite a few jockeys as he won the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on his penultimate start, beating Erupt, Siljan’s Saga and One Foot In Heaven, and may represent the home team’s best chance of an older horse winning unless New Bay brings his A-game.
Having looked at the first twenty in the betting, there are a few that I can see not showing up, so a couple of the lightly-raced ones in the big prices might get into the field and it could certainly be the year for (another) upset.
Advance warning for anybody that has tickets for Arc day at Chantilly:
If you are planning on getting a train from Gare du Nord to Chantilly, be aware that there are engineering works all of that weekend at Creil, so there is a replacement bus service for connecting services to Chantilly. Best to plan on getting a direct Amiens train as Chantilly is the second stop and it is quickest (€8.70). The RERD suburban train stops about fifteen times and takes nearly an hour.
Good luck if you are going as I expect that it will be packed because Chantilly is too small for the biggest race in Europe. On Arc Trials Day they were already erecting marquees not far after the winning post, presumably for sponsors and those on package deals. You are unlikely to get anywhere near the winner’s enclosure because on Arc Trials Day you needed to have some sort of premium ticket to stand on the steppings around it even though it is at one end of the parade ring.
If you are planning on getting a train from Gare du Nord to Chantilly, be aware that there are engineering works all of that weekend at Creil, so there is a replacement bus service for connecting services to Chantilly. Best to plan on getting a direct Amiens train as Chantilly is the second stop and it is quickest (€8.70). The RERD suburban train stops about fifteen times and takes nearly an hour.
Good luck if you are going as I expect that it will be packed because Chantilly is too small for the biggest race in Europe. On Arc Trials Day they were already erecting marquees not far after the winning post, presumably for sponsors and those on package deals. You are unlikely to get anywhere near the winner’s enclosure because on Arc Trials Day you needed to have some sort of premium ticket to stand on the steppings around it even though it is at one end of the parade ring.
Cannot be bothered opening a separate thread.
Has anyone been to the 'Grand Steeplchase de Paris' at Auteuil in May. Thinking about a visit next year. Am I correct in believing that, apart from the Arc, this is the best supported race (galop) in France. I have been to Auteuil in November for 'Le Weekend International de L'Obstacle' and this was fairly busy however nowhere near as bury as Longchamp in October.
Has anyone been to the 'Grand Steeplchase de Paris' at Auteuil in May. Thinking about a visit next year. Am I correct in believing that, apart from the Arc, this is the best supported race (galop) in France. I have been to Auteuil in November for 'Le Weekend International de L'Obstacle' and this was fairly busy however nowhere near as bury as Longchamp in October.
MINDING won't be heading to the Arc apparently. O'Brien relying on Found, Highland Reel and Order of St George. The last named seems a total waste of time heading over to me (unless it turns up a quagmire)? Disappointing but hardly overly surprising considering her eclipse in the Irish Champion.
That officially ends my 1% interest in the Flat 'you may as well play the lottery as predict the results' crap for another year
That officially ends my 1% interest in the Flat 'you may as well play the lottery as predict the results' crap for another year