The battle to drive for Toro Rosso in 2015
Red Bull has four drivers on its books that are all in contention for a Formula 1 race seat with Toro Rosso in 2015. BEN ANDERSON looks at each candidate's case
By Ben Anderson
F1 assistant editor
Things change quickly in Formula 1. It's a cliche but it's true. Just look at Red Bull: dominant multiple world champion one minute, also-ran the next.
It's no different for the various drivers on its roster: Sebastian Vettel has risen and fallen with the tide of the team this season, and now he's off to Ferrari.
Daniel Ricciardo stepped up from being a Toro Rosso 'nobody' to become Mark Webber's replacement as Red Bull's Aussie charger this year; now many are feting him as F1's next superstar.
Daniil Kvyat's life is moving at a supersonic pace: GP3 champion to Toro Rosso F1 rookie to Red Bull's next great hope, all in the space of less than 12 months.
Things change quickly in Formula 1, and that will no doubt be some comfort to Jean-Eric Vergne, as the Frenchman fights for his F1 future.
When Red Bull signed Formula 3 rookie Max Verstappen to its much-vaunted junior programme in the summer, then chose to promote him straight into F1 with Toro Rosso in 2015, Vergne's prospects took a massive dive. He was out of Toro Rosso, with no prospect of a promotion to Red Bull. He seemingly had eight races to save his F1 career.
But the shifting sands that have removed Fernando Alonso from Ferrari, sent Vettel there in his stead, and plucked Kvyat out of Red Bull's F1 kindergarten with only 15 starts under the Russian's belt, have also handed Vergne a potential lifeline.
Toro Rosso team principal Franz Tost would like an experienced hand to help guide Verstappen (hailed the 'new Senna' by Red Bull junior boss Helmut Marko) through his baby steps in F1, and it seems Red Bull owner Dietrich Mateschitz is coming round to that way of thinking too.
That surely puts Vergne in pole position to retain the second Toro Rosso seat in 2015. If it happens, it will be a remarkable turnaround in fortunes for Vergne - from desolation to redemption in one fell swoop.
But the incumbent faces serious pressure from elsewhere in the Red Bull ranks. Junior drivers Carlos Sainz Jr (recently crowned Formula Renault 3.5 champion), Alex Lynn (set to become GP3 champion at November's Abu Dhabi finale), and Pierre Gasly (a French favoured son of Renault who finished runner-up to Sainz as an FR3.5 rookie) are all snapping at his heels.
Red Bull boss Christian Horner insists nothing will be decided until the season has "panned out", so Vergne still faces an anxious wait.
"It's important to make people trust me, but I have many things [going for me]," Vergne argues when quizzed about the real possibility of being frozen out of F1 next year. "There are Daniel's results against Seb; we were the same the last two years.
"Obviously you want to be set up in a top team, that's when you get comfortable, but it's when you're not comfortable that you can show your potential and show the maximum of yourself.
"In this kind of situation, I'm always able to extract my best, which is what I plan to keep doing. Every year I never knew what was going to happen the year after, so it's not a problem. It won't distract from performing well in races."
Vergne is in a Catch-22 situation. He uses his record against Ricciardo when they were team-mates at Toro Rosso as his main argument for staying in F1 (though he was outscored and outqualified by the Australian across their final season together), but this is exactly the same reason Red Bull has decided he is not worth keeping - beyond providing a useful benchmark against which to measure the latest prodigy on its junior conveyor belt.
He has driven well in an unreliable car this year (even more so during the last few races, as the gravity of his circumstance has become apparent), but ultimately Red Bull still feels rookie Kvyat has done a better job relative to a driver in his third season of F1...
"Everyone knows that I've not been dropped by Toro Rosso because of a lack of results, or a lack of performance," Vergne counters.
"I've had the best results for the team since they started building their own cars. Vettel was in a Red Bull [when he drove for STR in 2008 and won famously at Monza], so I don't take that into consideration.
"Red Bull has always backed me; it's thanks to them that I'm here. We can always find a way to remain in the family without being at Toro Rosso. We'll see – nothing is finished, I'm still a Red Bull driver."
For now at least. Tost admitted during August's Belgian Grand Prix that Vergne had missed the boat with Red Bull when it sailed into 2014 with Ricciardo – and not the Frenchman – on board, so even if Vergne does remain a Toro Rosso driver beyond the current campaign, it's likely only to be a temporary stay of execution while Verstappen finds his feet.
The difficulty with this option for Red Bull is the way it's come about. Vergne was already facing the exit when Vettel dropped his Ferrari bombshell, and the Frenchman was furious when he found out Kvyat would be promoted ahead of him to take Vettel's place.
Is Vergne prepared to swallow his pride in exchange for one more year in the car and the hope of finding alternative employment in 2016? Red Bull may decide to just cut its losses, in which case it has three other drivers – hungry to break into F1 – to consider.
Many onlookers reckon Sainz Jr (son of World Rally legend Carlos) is the man best placed to step into the breach. He drove impressively for Red Bull and Toro Rosso during last year's young driver test at Silverstone, and recently became the first Red Bull Junior to win the Formula Renault 3.5 title.
A recent decision by main backer CEPSA to end its association with Toro Rosso in favour of a tie-up with Spanish football giant Real Madrid could hurt his chances, but Sainz feels he is ready for the step.
"If I would have jumped last year to Toro Rosso I would have been quick, but maybe in tricky sutuations I wouldn't have known how to turn things around," Sainz says. "This year I have achieved the whole package, and that's what gives me the confidence if I arrive next year [in F1] to do a good job from the beginning.
"[When] the news came out about another 'free' seat at Toro Rosso everyone was placing me there straight away, but I was the first one to say 'wait'. In Red Bull anything can happen, [and] there are obviously a lot of good guys in the junior programme.
"Let's hope it happens. I have to stay calm, because from now on I cannot do much more. I think I've finished my job. I will keep pushing in the simulator and whenever they give me the opportunity of driving in Abu Dhabi with Red Bull as my prize for this championship I will push.
"But I have put my cards on the table – the results and the numbers are there – so now I just have to wait. In Formula 1 sometimes it goes like that. This year I feel more prepared than ever to arrive in Formula 1, it's just a matter of waiting, and hoping."
If not Vergne, nor Sainz, then surely Britain's Alex Lynn is the next logical choice. A superb victory in the 2013 Macau Formula 3 Grand Prix brought him onto Red Bull's radar and he's used the backing to dominate this year's GP3 Series. Only a miracle from Dean Stoneman (plus an utter capitulation from the runaway leader) can deny Lynn the title at next month's Abu Dhabi finale.
It's difficult to see what else Lynn could do to convince Red Bull's bosses he deserves an F1 shot, but the Brit doesn't sound convinced he has a genuine chance of being a Toro Rosso driver next year.
"I can only do what I can do and prove I deserve the seat," Lynn tells AUTOSPORT. "Obviously the powers that be – and that means Helmut – need to be impressed. It's difficult to know what he's thinking, because he's got a great poker face and keeps his cards close to his chest.
"The impression I get is that he's going to be happy I'm going to win the championship – that's the real gauge of my performance, but I think Helmut always says, 'You've got to win the championship', and if you don't it makes things harder.
"Carlos has done a good job this year and JEV's drive in Singapore was world class, so I certainly couldn't sit here and say I'm in contention if I wasn't winning my championship.
"Helmut said at the start of the year, 'Let's see what you can do, and if you're going like a rocket then we'll evaluate things'. They're in a great position because we're all doing a good job – there's no bigger motivation than knowing there's that seat available.
"Whatever happens I've got a lot to be thankful for, because the Red Bull Junior Team gives you the chance to live your dream."
On the face of it, Pierre Gasly would seem the rank outsider to be promoted. After finishing runner-up to Sainz as an FR 3.5 rookie this year, the Frenchman looked set for a move into GP2 next year (he's already enjoyed a few recent exploratory outings in the series), but the 18-year-old fits better with Red Bull's sudden desire to make F1 drivers out of teenagers, and support from the team's engine supplier Renault could propel him to the front of the queue.
"I'm waiting to see if I get the call or not – I'm really happy with what I have done, so we will see what happens," Gasly says. "At least we couldn't do better this year. Carlos scored too many points in the beginning of the year compared to us, so we will see what I deserve.
"I think I have a chance [in F1]. I'll try to show them that I can go there. For the first year in 3.5 it hasn't been easy against more experienced drivers, but by the end of the year I was more often in front. Compared to my experience I think I have shown good stuff all the time.
"I think I'm ready. Max got the opportunity – he was really young and they gave him the chance to show what he can do, so I hope they give me the same chance and I will try to show them I deserve it.
"It's what I want to do, I want to be in Formula 1. I will do everything to get it. Only one guy can decide it so we will see."
Horner insists all four drivers are in contention for the drive and that there is "no rush" to decide who gets the seat until all the relevant championships are settled. That means Lynn has one more chance to press his case for F1 promotion, while Vergne has three more grands prix to convince his bosses he deserves a stay of execution.
The question is one of multiple choice, with four different solutions, and it seems there is no easy answer...
