I pretty much stopped betting on what I thought outcomes would be, long ago. So long as the odds are attractive, I basically now only ever bet on things which I don't want to happen.
Hampshire winning the t20 cup in 2010 cost me almost £60 in total. No problem with that though. I'd rather lose that £60 (over a three month period) with Hampshire winning something at the end of it, than just losing that £60 on outcomes which I honestly don't care for. And if I win (ie what I didn't want to happen, has happened), well at least I've got something (no matter how small) out of it.
And besides, the odds were 150/1! Given that we were far from safe at the time, they were ridiculous. Even my father put £10, and I have never known him to bet. Stupid odds.