Although its not ideal i do think now a days that the big yards can get a horse cherry ripe for the biggest races without a run. Obviously you would prefer a run but it's not the end of the world. Hurricane fly is a worthy favorite because he has proven himself this season, but i don't think that means the other key players are at a disadvantage come the day.
I would agree that they can, I wonder just how many of the winners last season at the festival hadn't had a prep run in Jan/Feb.
One of the strongest festival trends across nearly all races is "last ran between 40-60 days ago" - don't quote me on the exact numbers but you get the idea
I do know of that trend but surely in a year with so many leading contenders missing preps we can't rely on it to much?
And Binoculars last run against the Fly was very interesting bearing in mind the stewards were looking in to the dubious running. I see him running a very big race in the Champion. I am happy to go stick with Zarkandar although no bet for me until the day.. if it comes up soft I woud say it will suit Zarkandar more....bearing his staying on 5th last year.
Right chaps, your Champion is going to sort out the Champion hurdle. It is a race named after myself after all so I know you are hanging on for my detailed analysis before spending your February salary. For those of you with pension pots to invest, I say wait until you have read my comments. However, before i give you all my thoughts I take the almost unheard of step by asking the mere mortals of the board for your answers to a question that I think has the most relevance to determining the winner of this most exciting of 2 mile hurdle races. Where is the pace angle to this years renewal?
Rory Omoore. He might just nick it from the front, but will do well to hold off the late charge of Foildubh.
There appears a lack of pace at the moment and therefore until we see otherwise, that for me would make Hurricane Fly and Grandouet big favourites in my eyes. However, you can never be sure of how a race would be run- surely Harry Fry and Paul Nicholls will look to get some pace in for the likes of Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar, so Celestial Halo and Brampour may yet have a role to play. I think Zarkandar will be ridden prominently this year and when you consider that Rock On Ruby will also be up close to the pace (and presumably Countrywide Flame), I think the race will be set up for a turn of foot waiting in the wings and I do feel Grandouet may be the real big hope now he is a year older. I cant see it being a crawl and there is no way the real stayers will allow it to be. It would be foolish to give Hurricane Fly a race run to suit. There is no real value left to be had antepost so I will wait until the festival itself. It could be a battle royal coming up the hill because they wont let the stayers like Rock On Ruby out of their sight. Who goes best up the hill wins!
Very interesting take Woolly - I think I'll offer to show the forum my rear end if that happens. Hope he does though, I have a nice bet on him at 9/2
As I can't find another dedicated Champion Hurdle thread, I'll put these up here: THE STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE Class 1, Grade 1, £400,000 total prize fund. Cheltenham, 3.20pm, Tuesday, March 12, 2013, two miles and half a furlong. For four-year-olds and upwards which are allotted a rating of 130 or more by the senior BHA Head of handicapping following a review of the horses entered and taking account of races run up to and including March 5 - horses which are not qualified for a rating in GB, IRE or FR may also be entered (such horses may be eligible providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horseâs racecourse performances up to and including March 5 would merit a minimum rating of 130 - the decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final). Weights: 4yo: 11st 2lb; 5yo+: 11st 10lb; fillies & mares allowed 7lb. Entries closed January 15, entries revealed January 16 (34 entries). Scratchings deadline February 12 (22 remain), £20,000 supplementary stage & six-day confirmation stage March 6, final declaration 10.00am, March 10. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Monday, February 11. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 1FU-3100 BALDER SUCCES (FR) 5 Masterson Holdings Limited Alan King 4/32114-3 BINOCULAR (FR) 9 J P McManus Nicky Henderson 2613110 CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA) 5 Timeform Betfair Racing Club Ltd Gordon Elliott IRE 1111-25 CINDERS AND ASHES 6 Dermot Hanafin & Phil Cunningham Donald McCain 111U3-2 COTTON MILL 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson 2312-142 COUNTRYWIDE FLAME 5 Estio Pinnacle Racing John Quinn FLYING CROSS (IRE) 6 Robin Geffen David Pipe B/1F11-2 GRANDOUET (FR) 6 Simon Munir Nicky Henderson 1F1131- GRUMETI 5 McNeill Family Alan King 1131-111 HURRICANE FLY (IRE) 9 George Creighton & Mrs Rose Boyd Willie Mullins IRE 121/406/ KHYBER KIM 11 Caroline Mould Nicky Henderson 1(1)51-112 OSCAR WHISKY (IRE) 8 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Nicky Henderson 1232-111 OVERTURN (IRE) 9 Tim Leslie Donald McCain 20/1120-2 PEDDLERS CROSS (IRE) 8 Tim Leslie Donald McCain 03 RANSOM NOTE 6 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies 301-122 RAYA STAR (IRE) 7 Simon Munir Alan King 24-1112 REBEL FITZ (FR) 8 Brian Sweetnam Michael Winters IRE 3/1213-31 ROCK ON RUBY (IRE) 8 The Festival Goers Harry Fry 011105- STEPS TO FREEDOM (IRE) 7 Mrs Sean Hussey Jessica Harrington IRE 23-11432 THOUSAND STARS (FR) 9 Hammer & Trowel Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 02-25122 ZAIDPOUR (FR) 7 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 1/15F-11 ZARKANDAR (IRE) 6 Chris Giles & Potensis Limited Paul Nicholls 22 entries remain after February 12 scratchings deadline THE FOLLOWING 12 HORSES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: CASH AND GO (IRE), CLARET CLOAK (IRE), DARLAN, GENERAL MILLER, HISAABAAT (IRE), KING OF QUEENS (IRE), MIDNIGHT GAME, PEARL SWAN (FR), PUNJABI, SADLER'S RISK (IRE), TANGO DE JUILLEY (FR), TRIFOLIUM (FR)
I can only see, at most, about 9-12 of the above actually lining up comes ‘tapes up’ time. It seems to be ‘2nd preference’ for quite a few of the entries whilst several others will be best served going down the handicap route. But will, I say will, there be any supplementary entries???
Binocular Cinders & Ashes Cotton Mill Countrywide Flame Grandouet Hurricane Fly Rebel Fitz Rock On Ruby Zarkandar is probably it. But I say, I say, I say Sir Barney - the Moulds have moved old boy Khyber Kim to Mr Henderson? That went under the old radar screen. What ARE they up to???
He’s a possible, I say a possible, at Wincanton on Saturday, Oddy in the Kingwell Hurdle. Mr Henderson did formerly train Khyber Kim but he’s now an 11YO who has been off the track for almost 2 years – nothing is beyond Mr Henderson, of course, but its asking an awful, awful lot for him to restore Khyber Kim to his former glories. Should he manage to do so though...the old boy would be a leading player.
Had contact from one of the connections involved with Countrywide Flame, and his opinion was that '20/1 is a stonking each way price' and this is still his opinion after the defeat by Rock on Ruby. Not my opinion, although I am on at 20s myself, won't play again myself either, just thought I would pass it on to the forum. Looking at the current list, I'm quite happy with CWF as my e/w bet, and will back Grandouet on the day, I just can't see the Fly or Rock on Ruby winning this, can't put my finger on why though
