Champion Hurdle Preview.

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Given this years renewal looks fairly open, I've had a little bet on Pearl Swan at 70s on Betfair with 50s widely available from bookmakers. He looked a very decent prospect last year winning on his hurdling debut for Paul Nicholls and was first past the post beating Grumeti on his 2nd start conceding that rival 3lb before having the race taken away from him in the stewards room. He went for the Triumph last season and despite travelling horribly throughout the race he came from pretty much another parish and he was eating up the ground before taking a heavy tumble at the last. If he had jumped it fluently I think he would have gone very close to beating Countrywide Flame and I definitely think he would have finished at least 2nd. He suffered an injury from the fall and hasn't been seen since but considering he showed what can arguably be considered very classy form in just 3 starts and if he's grown and developed as a horse in the past 10 months then I feel this unexposed horse has the scope to make up into a Champion Hurdle prospect, especially as he should love the very quick tempo and has already shown his liking for Cheltenham. I presume his next port of call is the Betfair Hurdle in a few weeks and I've had a bet on him for that at 10/1 which I think represents a fantastic price given that off a mark of 146 he could very easily be chucked in. He could easily end up not having the class for a Champion Hurdle but at the price I'm definitely willing to have a small bet in the hope he has developed into a high class animal

I think its also interesting to note Paul Nicholls comments from the ATR Jumps preview

"Ready after Christmas and will definitely have an entry for the Champion Hurdle – won’t let Rock On Ruby have it all his own way!”
 
Roto, good morning. I don't know about the Champion Hurdle, but I agree that Pearl Swan has a great chance at Newbury. I also think Cotton Mill has a similar profile- in that he is unexposed with a fair weight. General Miller has EW chances on his best form but, like you, Pearl Swan would be my choice. <ok>
 
2011 [video=youtube;yNvEx04fN7o]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNvEx04fN7o[/video] 2012[video=youtube;2UTtqLkKQf0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UTtqLkKQf0[/video]


Two great races and they provide a fantastic comparison. I actually don't think Overturn goes off any quicker in 2012 than he did in 2011, but rather it is how he catches them all out down the hill where he suddenly ups the tempo and then none of them can quicken- he and Rock On Ruby raced away with it. In 2011, Overturn slows up on the hill and once Peddlers Cross got him in his sight, he went scorching past him and the Hurricane closed up and quickened away to score by a length. Ruby Walsh always said he would outstay those who tested his stamina but I think his turn of foot is his biggest asset and he will need that to win the 2013 renewal.


A fantastic bit of discsussion when comparing Al Ferof and Hurricane Fly in winning the Supreme Novice and Champion Hurdle respectively can be seen here:

Al Ferof ran a faster time than Hurricane Fly and that was largely down to the early pace- that was where Al Ferof ended up coming on strong at the end when he flew home off a fantastically quick tempo Supreme, and Hurricane Fly quickened up after a slower style of Champion Hurdle.


I do think a really strong gallop is the way to go at Hurricane Fly but I am not sure who will provide thas year and therefore he does look to have an outstanding chance. The softer the ground the better for him, also. I am confident we know his weaknesses now but when it comes to assessing this race we have to understand how it will be run, and at the moment there are not many horses who could press on at the breakneck pace they want. And in soft ground that would play against any pacemakers anyway as they would tire much quicker.

Hurricane remains the horse to beat IMO, despite the criticism, but we know that he IS beatable now. Fascinating renewal in prospect.
 
Can't help thinking Ruby will have learnt from last years race and ride him a bit handier this time round Toppy. It's almost as if Ruby had discounted RoR and Overturn and let them get too far ahead coming down the hill and around the bend. HF travels so well and I'm sure Ruby will ride him closer to the pace this time.
 
OddDog said:
Can't help thinking Ruby will have learnt from last years race and ride him a bit handier this time round Toppy. It's almost as if Ruby had discounted RoR and Overturn and let them get too far ahead coming down the hill and around the bend. HF travels so well and I'm sure Ruby will ride him closer to the pace this time.
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Judging by all of his runs this season Oddy I would agree with you- had him right up there and then looked to quicken away. Think they will have no excuses this time around- he'll be ridden righthand in 3rd or 4th at Cheltenham IMO.
 
Pricewise having his say in tomorrow's RP and the one that's blue on Oddschecker tonight is Cotton Mill. Strange if he's picked that one ..................
 
Can't be having him as Champion Hurdle class though ROTO ..................... I'd have Pearl Swan and Grumeti ahead of him on novice form from last season, not to mention Countrywide Flame
 
Pricewise the utter tool.


It's not hard for someone to go 'Oh look at how well Cotton Mill travelled in the Neptune before he ran out' and that the Neptune is historically a fantastic trial of future Champion Hurdlers.

BUT

a) Simonsig was about to murder him and he would be the one horse who could have really hammered home in a Champion Hurdle.
b)Monksland would have smashed Cotton Mil to pieces.

-Cotton Mill will not win a Champion Hurdle. I looked at him a lot before Christmas when considering a tipple at crazy odds, but then I watched the Neptune again and I know in my head that two stars were there in the race that day, and Cotton Mill not one of them.

I would be interested in an e/w squeak in the Betfair hurdle, but unless he wins that by 6 lengths he won't be winning a Champion.
 
Cant wait to see my #1 fav horse binocular to run on sunday! Mick Fitz said when he went to the Henderson yard he looked gleaming and he is definately one of those horses if he looks good he will run good, if he looks dull he will run dull! My 25/1 e/w for the CH will hopefully looks very good come sunday nite!
 
I am still interested in Grumeti and have had a little dabble at 66/1. Improved on the flat and went up 10lbs for winning at Ascot and then got beaten a short head at Goodwood and hasn't been seen since. The Triumph form is holding up though and I think it is a very open year in the Champion Hurdle. If he lines up on the day he will be shorter than 66/1 and I will lay some of that off. Positive reports coming from Alan King about the horses wellbeing.

Only concern is he didn't seem to stay in the Triumph, however he has another year on his back and if carrying improvement from flat I expect a bold bid. This horse should not be 3 times the price of Countrywide Flame. Possibly going to line up in the Betfair Hurdle which should tell us a lot about his chances.
 
To my (very) untrained eye, Grumeti looks like a horse who needs less of a test than Cheltenham, which in my opinion is why he turned the result around with Countrywide Flame at Aintree.

Countrywide Flame, is my idea of a horse who will run very well at a good price, and won't stop at the bottom of the hill. I did predict that he would get beat at Kempton in the Xmas hurdle before going on to post an excellent effort in the big one at Chelts, so heres hoping I'm right! Have had a decent each way bet at 20/1
 
My take on the race is that there will be no pace on at all and hurricane fly will ruise into the race and do them for speed. Afterall thats how most of the races he has won in Ireland are run. My only fear is Zarkander who is exceptionaly talented and tends to make things look a lot harder than i suspect they are for him.
 
Joe Lively said:
Countrywide Flame, is my idea of a horse who will run very well at a good price, and won't stop at the bottom of the hill. I did predict that he would get beat at Kempton in the Xmas hurdle before going on to post an excellent effort in the big one at Chelts, so heres hoping I'm right! Have had a decent each way bet at 20/1
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I hope you're right too.
 
Joe Lively said:
To my (very) untrained eye, Grumeti looks like a horse who needs less of a test than Cheltenham, which in my opinion is why he turned the result around with Countrywide Flame at Aintree.

Countrywide Flame, is my idea of a horse who will run very well at a good price, and won't stop at the bottom of the hill. I did predict that he would get beat at Kempton in the Xmas hurdle before going on to post an excellent effort in the big one at Chelts, so heres hoping I'm right! Have had a decent each way bet at 20/1
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I can definitely understand that, but with just 3 3/4l back in the triumph and then seemed to get on top in the final stages at Aintree (admittedly a lot flatter track). I just don't see it as unfeasible that he could have improved massively from 4 to 5 and that he was a little on the weak side last year. I can see him being bang there if there is no pace on early.

I have mainly taken the price because should he run well on his first start this season and line up on the day I don't think he will be a 66/1 shot.
 
How about this. We are 41 days away from the Champion Hurdle and many of the UK-based horses have had their preparation well and truly scuppered by the weather. The opportunities to get a meaningful run into horses prior to the big day are slowly running out. The Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock was lost, the Contenders hurdle at Sandown on Saturday is in jeopardy due to the hurdle course being extremely heavy. Does this all play into the hands of Hurricane Fly who has taken all his planned engagements (3 races won, just as he did in his Champion Hurdle winning season) ??
 
OddDog said:
How about this. We are 41 days away from the Champion Hurdle and many of the UK-based horses have had their preparation well and truly scuppered by the weather. The opportunities to get a meaningful run into horses prior to the big day are slowly running out. The Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock was lost, the Contenders hurdle at Sandown on Saturday is in jeopardy due to the hurdle course being extremely heavy. Does this all play into the hands of Hurricane Fly who has taken all his planned engagements (3 races won, just as he did in his Champion Hurdle winning season) ??
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I would say that it does, but also possibly into the hands of Binocular too, who will surely improve massively for his gallop behind the Hurricane. This is the same reason that I would want to take Bob's Worth on in the Gold Cup, you need to be cherry ripe for the big races, and any hold up can be very costly.
 
Yes it does Oddy. Exactly right I'd say.

I know this is very basic thinking but if you fancied Hurricane Fly last year (as many did) and can accept that he didn't meet expectations all season for whatever reason and you believe Mullins when he says that he's got him 100% right this season then 11/4 (or whatever bigger price people have taken) is massive value whether he wins the race or not.

Also, no Overturn this year. People are very worried about Hurricane's ability to quicken off a very fast pace. Where is the breakneck pace coming from this time round?
 
That's my thinking Bob. I also think we could well get softer than normal ground this year, which will also play to Hurricane Fly's strengths. I got on at 9/2 and am very happy with that <ok>
 
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