Binocular Cinders & Ashes Cotton Mill Countrywide Flame Grandouet Hurricane Fly Rebel Fitz Rock On Ruby Zarkandar If they are the runners you can rule out Rebel Fitz Binocular Cotton Mill Which leaves Grandouet Zarkandar Hurricane Fly Countrywide Flame Cinder and Ashes Rock on Ruby I'd only leave in Cinder and Ashes and Country Wide Flame because they are past Festival winners as on this seasons showings they have not got a prayer. That leaves 4 horses who are capable of winning this race. Grandouet Zarkandar Hurricane Fly Rock on Ruby Grandouet has a niggle that may hinder his preparation. Rock on Ruby won the prep race but could easily have been beaten with ease by Darlan. If you rule them out you are left with the Fly and Zarkandar. One is 13/8 and the other 6/1. I genuinely can't decide whether this is a strong renewal or not. I rate the front three or four in the betting but the rest aren't up to much.
I would tend to agree with you BB, and every time I look at the race, I keep coming back to Zarkandar, and also Grandouet. As I said before, I can't have Hurricane Fly at the prices, a few canters round the courses in Ireland beating the same horses isn't enough to justify the sort of price he has chalked up against him. I know he's a previous winner, but I'm of the impression this is a stronger renewal than the one he won
I will be the first to hold my hand up if I'm wrong but I don't see a single piece of form that makes me think Grandouet will win the Champion Hurdle. Not only that I think his very presence is stopping Oscar Whisky from running in the race he is best suited to. I ask you this, if Grandouet was injured/trained by someone else, which race would previous Champion Hurdle placed Oscar Whisky be running in? For me it's a no brainer, the horse couldn't beat Reve De Sivola CD (or close enough to CD) on soft and the gap will only widen between the two on spring ground plus RDS might not even be the winner of the World Hurdle. ROR has to have a chance being the reigning champ, but I think Zarkandar has the best piece of form in the book this season (when beating Prospect Wells).
My concern with Grandouet is that if he doesn't run in the Kingwell, to go and win a Champion Hurdle fresh off a break would take an almighty performance. I think he is a lovely horse and he has always been heading in the right direction. Much depends on how you take his reappearance this year. If you think he needed the run against a match fit Zarkandar, then it was a great comeback full of promise. If you think he was fit and well, you'd say he had every chance but could not beat him up the hill. The better the ground at Cheltenham, the better for Grandouet. I actually think he and Hurricane Fly are the two against the field, but with no run you have to have question marks.
If it comes up soft we'll all be thinking if Oscar Whisky was entered even more of a chance! I agree with what you are saying. The same applies to Captain Conan and Finians rainbow. Too many eggs in one basket springs to mind...
Zarkandar for me... he's a different horse this year and the trainer has also emphasised this. If the going on the first day is soft then for me I'd be even more confident in backing him
When I saw Grandouet beaten by Zarkandar (a horse I've always liked) I was very impressed by the way he travelled and jumped. He looked a class act who would appreciate a sounder surface (it was heavy). As I said at the time, if he gets a sound surface at Cheltenham I can't see him being out of the first 3. I have noticed though that at Cheltenham 2 years ago he was beaten 5l by Zarkandar on good going. Always difficult to know how they have improved relatively. I think they would be my 2, tending towards the latter if it comes up soft.
Don't understand the constant Oscar Whiskey debate. If Oscar Whiskey had a chance of winning the Champion Hurdle then I'm pretty sure Dai Waters would insist that's the race he runs in. He's a two mile five horse at his best, probably not quick enough to win a Champion Hurdle or a good enough stayer to win a World Hurdle. He's probably going to finish behind four or five horses in the Champion and one or two in a World Hurdle. Based on this it makes sense to try the World Hurdle to me. That said heading straight to Aintree might be the best idea. A fresh horse running against jaded Cheltenham horses would make him awfully hard to beat. As for the Finians Rainbow question, we'll all have a better idea after Saturday. I have no doubts the Ryanair winner runs in the Ascot race.
I'm willing to dismiss Countrywide Flame's poor showing in the Christmas Hurdle, a race that wasn't run to suit. That run aside, he's going the right way. He'll be a better horse at Cheltenham than he was at Donny last time, where he had to make the running and got no cover into a strong headwind. A strong pace and a big field round a course he's proved his liking for will bring out the best in him. The 20/1 with Paddy's has tempted me into a small ante post punt in what could be an open year,
Good question. Cotton Mill possibly. And Zarkander won't be hanging about either. They don't normally go a dawdle in the CH though, do they? So something will make the running, and something else will press the leaders.
They won't dawdle but where is the pace coming from. Zarkandar won't lead. Cotton Mill sat just off the pace at the weekend didn't he. Would they lead on him? Don;t know. They might. Overturn made it such a stiff test last year which set it up for Rock on Ruby and blunted Hurricane Fly's speed and stamina combination. I'm coming round to the opinion that with the current entries there is only one horse that is going to win this race. Unfortunately, he's a short priced favourite. Without a very strong gallop like last year he looks bomb proof to me.
With the race now 3 weeks tomorrow, the field is narrowing down and we have a pretty good idea of who will be running. Here the latest prices from Paddy Power: Hurricane Fly 13/8 Zarkandar 5/1 Rock On Ruby 6/1 Grandouet 6/1 Binocular 12/1 Cinders & Ashes 14/1 Oscar Whisky 14/1 (very likely to go the World Hurdle Route) Countrywide Flame 16/1 Cotton Mill 25/1 33/1 Bar Recent developments: Ruby Walsh has committed himself to ride Hurricane Fly (ahead of Zarkandar) Zarkandar won the Kingwell in a solid performance by 4.5 lengths from a resurgent Khyber Kim (getting 8lbs from the winner), who is back under the care of Mr Henderson Grandouet goes to the festival without a prep run and therefore has quite a bad statistic to overcome Harry Fry is bullish about Rock On Ruby's chances ("He's come out of the Doncaster race as well as we could have hoped for and it's taken him to the next level. We've got the chance to put the finishing touches on him now. We've got just over three weeks and it's very much all systems go. So we're very confident and if it continues to dry we'll be growing more confident by the day.") Any further thoughts on the pace angle? Will Rock On Ruby try and go on from the top of the hill again?
3 weeks?! Coming round fast. Zarkandar and Hurricane Fly both have had ideal preparations and will be delighted thus far. Rock On Ruby has had two really good runs too, and will improve for (what will hopefully be) spring ground. They look 3 dangers. That said however, Countrywide Flame has also ran in all of his intended outings, whilst we have not seen Cinders and Ashes since Christmas. He is another said to improve for better ground. Grandouet gave 4lb to Zarkandar on his comeback from almost a year off and went down by 2 lengths, which was a rock solid reappearance but has not been seen since, which is always a worry going into a Champion Hurdle. He looks to me like a horse who runs well fresh though- he doesn't look like a horse who necessarily thrives on a lot of racing. Henderson will have him ready but he needs a career best. Binocular will need a minor miracle you would think. Cotton Mill has been kept for better ground and therefore he might be an e/w thief in this if the ground is on the better side of good to soft after an excellent reappearance, but you would not see him winning. There seems a quiet confidence around Zarkandar this year, the Fly team sound happy, and they would look the main two as we stand at the moment. The better the ground, the better chance Grandouet and Rock On Ruby have.
My Tent Or Yours going to the Supreme Novices rather than the Champion Hurdle - this picture tells you why, his hurdling isn't yet fluent enough
