Champion Hurdle Preview.

I can't wait. As it stands I won't hear of defeat for Hurricane Fly, Sprinter Sacre, Quevega and Pont Alexandre.

 

These were two interesting comments after the Inernational:

Nicholls said: "I don't think he was ever right last season but that was a proper job today. He had his ears pricked and he doesn't want to be in front as far out as he had to be here. I won't run him again until Wincanton in February but I wouldn't be worried if I didn't run him again until the Champion."

Nicky Henderson thought the ground went against Grandouet and said: "Barry thought he was going to win a minute coming down the hill but he just got bogged down in that sticky ground. He will benefit for the outing but we are leaning at the moment towards not running again until the Champion."


Clearly Nicholls and Henderson are not overly concerned by the stats for Champion Hurdlers and also bear in mind that Rock On Ruby won last year without a prep race (he last run in the Christmas hurdle before taking the Champion crown in March). Good news for Grandouet fans then that Henderson was leaning towards having him fresh at Cheltenham before there was any setbacks.

 

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/cheltenham-features/myth-busting-champion-hurdle-trends-110213-43.html


In the latest of his myth-busting series, Simon Rowlands inspects a trend-follower's favourite.

One way of ensuring success in archery would be to shoot an arrow in the air then paint a target around where it fell.

A similar thing happens when some "trends" practitioners try to make their analysis seem relevant. Identify a common theme - any theme - among past winners of a race, trim your timescale to exclude inconvenient examples to the contrary, and, hey presto!, you have yourself a "trend".

Few races have had so many arrows shot and so many targets drawn in recent years as the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Five-year-olds could not win the race, then the five-year-old Katchit won the race in 2008. Offspring of Montjeu were no good in this or other races at The Festival, then Montjeu's son Hurricane Fly won the Champion Hurdle in 2011. A horse had to have a recent race, and a winning one at that, then Rock On Ruby won the Champion Hurdle in 2012 after a defeat and a layoff.

It will be interesting to see where the arrow ends up this year.

A major problem with conventional trends analysis is, as mentioned in the first two parts of this myth-busting series, that it concentrates on winners and winners alone, ignoring the inconvenient truth that if a trend exists it should affect all qualifying horses and be manifested in how losers lose and how winners win.

This time last year, a popular Cheltenham betting guide pointed out that "the last 17 winners of the Champion Hurdle ran during the same calendar year". Good stuff.

What it did not point out is that over three-quarters of runners in the Champion Hurdle this century had run in the same calendar year, that 7.7 such winners out of 10 could have been expected by chance, and that qualifiers had accounted for 50.8% of rivals when 50.0% is par (a negligible difference).

The figures for horses to have run in the same calendar year now (following Rock On Ruby's trends-busting win) read 10 winners when 8.5 could be expected by chance and precisely 50% of rivals beaten.

The vast majority of Champion Hurdle contenders this century last ran in January or February, but horses that last ran in December (31 of 159) have actually fared best in terms of rivals beaten (56.1%).

There was no clear advantage to last-time-out winners (unless judged on wins alone), though winners and seconds have outperformed thirds and fourths, and horses out of the first four on their previous start have - unsurprisingly - done poorly in the premier hurdle race of the year.
Last-time seconds have accounted for 57.2% of rivals this century, while last-time winners (responsible for more than one-third of runners) have actually accounted for a slightly lower 56.1%.

Where age is concerned, seven-year-olds have fared best, beating 57.9% of rivals and winning just over twice as often as could be expected by chance. But the figures for nine-year-olds ("oppose horses older than eight" the publication mentioned above suggested last year) are not as bad as might be imagined.

Only nine nine-year-olds have run in the Champion Hurdle this century, but they have accounted for 50.5% of their rivals and provided a winner in Rooster Booster in 2003 (0.6 winners could be anticipated by chance). The current favourite, Hurricane Fly, is a nine-year-old, and that fact did not stop him winning the Irish Champion Hurdle recently in good style.

Myth-busters are spoilt for choice for horses that could "defy the trends"[/I] and win the 2013 Champion Hurdle. Hurricane Fly, Binocular and Countrywide Flame are the "wrong" age, while (as things stand) Grandouet, Zarkandar and Cinders And Ashes last ran in the "wrong" year.

That leaves only last year's party-pooper Rock On Ruby as a qualifier among the market leaders, but closer inspection reveals that "the reigning Champion Hurdle winner has a wretched record" (at least since triple winner Istabraq and dual winner Hardy Eustace). Oh dear.

The simple fact is that ability and suitability to the circumstances is likely to decide who wins and who loses the Champion Hurdle on March 12, not the categories some of us choose to put horses into for our own convenience. 'Old man' Hurricane Fly is a worthy favourite.

 

I see that those Pipe's are saying that there is a fair chance that Flying Cross could well make his NH bow in either this heat or the Supreme Novices! Ladbrokes make him 100/1 for the Champion Hurdle and 50/1 for the meetings card commencer.

What, and I do mean What with a capital 'W' are they up to now?!?