I like Hurricane Fly an awful lot but I do really worry that he's now had a very hard win in the Champion Hurdle followed by a very hard race last season. For a horse who doesn't take much racing with all his injury problems over the years I can't help but think that he's probably reached his peak and won't be winning at Cheltenham again. His petrol tank may be empty.
Im being a touch harsh on Go Native oddy. I like the horse. Like it a lot and its fantastic to see him back. BUT im letting my head rule my heart- it would be a great story but realistically what are the chances of beating The Fly? Beaten 10L previously.
I’d better withdraw that remark. Apparently, crowds are already gathering in my local High Street, 4 months before the possible event, in order to obtain a good position. There is a school of thought that Hurricane Fly will do a Quevega and go to the Festival without a ‘prep’ run. Mullins has spoken many times about the fact that he left the Champion Hurdle behind at Leopardstown following his run there last January and that the best he ever had him was for his debut last term in the ‘Irish Champion Hurdle’. He still ain’t for me though.
Far be it from me to besmirch the wee man, but Mullins talks a load of old bollocks sometimes. Look at Hurricane Fly's "season of all seasons": 15th Dec - Hatton's Grace Grade 1 - WON 29th Dec - Festival Hurdle Grade 1 - WON 23rd Jan - Irish Champion Hurdle Grade 1 - WON 15th Mar - Champion Hurdle Grade 1 - WON 6th May - Rabobank Grade 1 - WON Plenty of races in all conditions including soft and heavy, beating Solwhit convincingly over christmas on heavy.
Look at how long it took Mullins to actually get HF to Cheltenham, I think we can take from that, that he is not the most robust of animals nor can he be the easiest to train. However, IF he is on song, and IF he has a good preparation, then he would be the worthy favourite. But again, I'm a little concerned/puzzled at how quickly he stopped making ground on the front 2 back in March, maybe he just wasn't 100%? Maybe he just wasn't good enough? I don't think we can conclusively rate Go Native's place in the top rank of the hurdlers around at the moment, as he won the Supreme well, won Fighting Fifth, and Xmas hurdle well, but he wasn't right in the Champion, or at least that is what we are told, I'd be willing to give him another chance. How could I forget my old friend Countrywide Flame, a wonderful little horse, who continues to do his connections proud. Think he is always going to be one of those unfashionable horses who may go under the radar, but it's clear he likes Cheltenham, and if you watch the Triumph again, he is off the bit a long way from home. Forget his age, he'll be bang there if he gets the run of the race, because he won't stop at the bottom of the hill. Grandouet would be the one who could be the joker in the pack providing he stays fit and well, he's got the class, and the speed to win. It pains me to say it but Peddlers Cross has gone in my eyes, can't jump a fence, hasn't got the pace anymore to win the Champion, and won't win the World Hurdle.
Great read Tam. I'm struggling with the Champion hurdle, I'm not sure any of the real players are genuine 2m horses and I'm convinced that if Zarkander was trained by anyone else he'd be Stayers hurdle bound and would stand every chance of toppling the might Big Bucks, but I expect Nicholls to keep those two well apart. Darlan is another who I think needs further than the min trip and has age on his side so may be stepped up in trip gradually, whilst Rock of Ruby won the 2012 renewal he also should get 3m and now he has moved stables there's a chance this one will be allowed to take on Big Bucks. Rite of Passage must need further and Simonsig has not only never run over 2m he was also strongly touted for the potato race (3m) before winning the Neptune, I'm not convinced a drop in trip is what he needs. Hurricane Fly will bid to becoem only the second 9yo in 20 years (Rooster Booster) to win the race and the first in 38 years (Comedy of Errors) to regain the crown, if Mullins gets him there he'd have a big chance, but he's only managed two trips to the Mecca in his career so question marks exists. If I was forced to part with a fiver at this early stage I think I'd have to plump for Cinders & Ashes, tough as they come and the way he kicked down the final flight in his Supreme and got running again so quickly suggests to me this horse has speed and class....
I personally dont rate last years supreme that highly. Im still all over grandouet for it. I know hes veen off injured and theres always a doubt but his form is There for all to see
Ive just seen grandouet is entered in the fighting fifth along with cinders and ashes, countrywide flame and current champ rock on Ruby. Could be tasty
The champion hurdle looks a very open race to me this yer, questions can be asked about all those heading the market. If Spirit Son had stayed fit then he would have been my idea of the winner. Such a shame he was struck by such a devastating illness, just great to know he is still with us. At the moment I would have to side with Peddlers Cross. Obvious question marks about retaining ability and if he takes this route. However given the form of his second in this race to Hurricance Fly and the factor in he is five times the price then a little each way at this stage is where my money would be. However I will be waiting until a few of the candidates have been seen.
FOUR PREVIOUS WINNERS AMONG 34 ENTRIES FOR STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE ROCK ON RUBY “BIGGER AND STRONG” AS HE ATTEMPTS BACK-TO-BACK SUCCESS Defending champion Rock On Ruby (10/1 with the sponsor) is one of four previous winners among 34 entries for this year’s Grade One Stan James Champion Hurdle, the feature race on day one of The Festival, Champion Day, Tuesday, March 12. The race is worth a record £400,000. Harry Fry’s stable star scored by three and three quarter lengths in last season’s Stan James Champion Hurdle, when trained by Paul Nicholls, and made an encouraging return for his new handler when chasing home Zarkandar (7/1) and Grandouet (7/1) in the Grade Two StanJames.com International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December. Fry said: “Rock On Ruby is still very much on course for the Stan James Champion Hurdle. “He is all set for a prep run at either Sandown on February 2 (Contenders Hurdle) or at Wincanton on February 16 (Kingwell Hurdle), weather permitting, as I’m not sure what the winter is going to bring next. He is not going to run on heavy ground between now and Cheltenham. If the ground is decent, he will have a prep run but if not, he will have a racecourse gallop instead. “He is in great form at the moment and his run in the International has brought him on a ton - I am very pleased with him. Noel (Fehily) felt he was on the winner the whole way at Cheltenham. He travelled like the best horse in the race but the lack of a recent run at that level in those conditions counted against him turning in and over the last. “I think he will have had to have improved since last year’s Champion Hurdle to win this year’s race but he has improved and is much bigger and stronger. My assistant Ciara O’Connor, who rides Rock On Ruby everyday, has been saying that all season and Noel felt exactly the same after the run in December.” Lambourn trainer Nicky Henderson has annexed five Stan James Champion Hurdles - the most of any current trainer - and he holds a formidable hand with eight entries consisting of two Stan James Champion Hurdle heroes in 2010 victor Binocular (25/1) and 2009 hero Punjabi (40/1), as well as Grade One scorers Darlan (4/1), Oscar Whisky (16/1), Khyber Kim (100/1), Cash And Go (50/1) and Grandouet, plus General Miller (66/1). Stan James make Henderson a 7/4 chance to train this year’s winner. Nicholls, the seven-time champion trainer, is responsible for 2011 JCB Triumph Hurdle victor Zarkandar and lightly-raced five-year-old Pearl Swan (50/1), while Donald McCain’s possible representatives include last year’s runner-up Overturn (66/1), Peddlers Cross (40/1) and 2012 William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle scorer Cinders And Ashes (18/1). The 10 potential Irish challengers are led by 13-time Grade One winner Hurricane Fly, trained by Irish champion Willie Mullins, who enjoyed victory over Peddlers Cross in the 2011 Stan James Champion Hurdle but could only finish third when odds-on favourite last year. He is the 7/2 market leader with Stan James following three wins from three starts since. Full Press Pack
THE STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE Class 1, Grade 1, £400,000 total prize fund. Cheltenham, 3.20pm, Tuesday, March 12, 2013, two miles and half a furlong. For four-year-olds and upwards which are allotted a rating of 130 or more by the senior BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and taking account of races run up to and including March 5 -horses which are not qualified for a rating in GB, IRE or FR may also be entered (such horses may be eligible providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horseâs racecourse performances up to and including March 5 would merit a minimum rating of 130 - the decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final). Weights: 4yo: 11st 2lb; 5yo+: 11st 10lb; fillies & mares allowed 7lb. Entries closed January 15, entries revealed January 16 (34 entries). Scratchings deadline February 12, £20,000 supplementary stage & six-day confirmation stage March 6, final declaration 10.00am, March 10. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Monday, January 16. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 1FU-310 BALDER SUCCES (FR) 5 Masterson Holdings Limited Alan King 4/32114- BINOCULAR (FR) 9 J P McManus Nicky Henderson 1115-2U CASH AND GO (IRE) 6 Robin Geffen Nicky Henderson 261311 CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA) 5 Timeform Betfair Racing Club Ltd Gordon Elliott IRE 1111-25 CINDERS AND ASHES 6 Dermot Hanafin & Phil Cunningham Donald McCain 12511-3 CLARET CLOAK (IRE) 6 Hawksmoor Partnership Emma Lavelle 111U3- COTTON MILL 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson 2312-14 COUNTRYWIDE FLAME 5 Estio Pinnacle Racing John Quinn 11F21-1 DARLAN 6 J P McManus Nicky Henderson FLYING CROSS (IRE) 6 Robin Geffen David Pipe 2U14/0/2- GENERAL MILLER 8 Henry Ponsonby Nicky Henderson B/1F11-2 GRANDOUET (FR) 6 Simon Munir Nicky Henderson 1F1131- GRUMETI 5 McNeill Family Alan King 121-043 HISAABAAT (IRE) 5 Dr Ronan Lambe/Dominick Glennane Dermot Weld IRE 1131-11 HURRICANE FLY (IRE) 9 George Creighton & Mrs Rose Boyd Willie Mullins IRE 121/406/- KHYBER KIM 11 Caroline Mould Nicky Henderson 4133///-11 KING OF QUEENS (IRE) 8 Miss Ashley Scanlon Tom Mullins IRE 064-112 MIDNIGHT GAME 6 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE 1(1)51-11 OSCAR WHISKY (IRE) 8 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Nicky Henderson 1232-11 OVERTURN (IRE) 9 Tim Leslie Donald McCain 12F- PEARL SWAN (FR) 5 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls 20/1120- PEDDLERS CROSS (IRE) 8 Tim Leslie Donald McCain 42100//-6 PUNJABI 10 Raymond Tooth Nicky Henderson 0 RANSOM NOTE 6 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies 301-122 RAYA STAR (IRE) 7 Simon Munir Alan King 24-1112 REBEL FITZ (FR) 8 Brian Sweetnam Michael Winters IRE 3/1213-3 ROCK ON RUBY (IRE) 8 The Festival Goers Harry Fry 12632- SADLER'S RISK (IRE) 5 Roger Brookhouse Philip Hobbs 011105- STEPS TO FREEDOM (IRE) 7 Mrs Sean Hussey Jessica Harrington IRE 51224- TANGO DE JUILLEY (FR) 5 Muhammad Nadeem Khan Venetia Williams 23-1143 THOUSAND STARS (FR) 9 Hammer & Trowel Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 2132-24 TRIFOLIUM (FR) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Charles Byrnes IRE 02-2512 ZAIDPOUR (FR) 7 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 1/15F-11 ZARKANDAR (IRE) 6 Chris Giles & Potensis Limited Paul Nicholls 34 entries 10 Irish-trained Latest odds from Stan James: 7/2 Hurricane Fly, 4 Darlan, 7 Zarkandar, Grandouet, 10 Rock On Ruby, 16 Oscar Whisky, 18 Cinders And Ashes, 20 Countrywide Flame, Oscar Whisky, 25 Binocular, Grumeti, 40 Cause Of Causes, Punjabi, Rebel Fitz, Raya Star, Peddlers Cross, Zaidpour, 50 Cash And Go, Balder Succes, Cotton Mill, Thousand Stars, Steps To Freedom, Midnight Game, Pearl Swan, 66 Claret Cloak, Trifolium, General Miller, Tango De Juilley, Hisaabaat, Overturn, Sadler's Risk, 100 Flying Cross, Khyber Kim, King Of Queens, 150 Ransom Note (EW 1/4 1,2,3)
I see that those Pipe’s have been true to their word and entered Flying Cross. His hurdling debut is going to be very keenly anticipated after such a move, methinks. For this correspondent though the heat revolves around Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite trainer. At this stage I can see him having the 1-2-3 up and if asked to nominate the order would proclaim, ‘1st Grandouet, 2nd Darlan and 3rd old boy Binocular’. Therefore, the 7/4 about him training the winner looks most eye catching in my opinion.
http://www.racingtips.com/category/Cheltenham-Festival/Champion-Hurdle-analysis-tips-201301160035/ Seems like an interesting argument to say the least
Almost 10 weeks since we've had a post on this thread so I thought a quick update might be in order. Going through the runners in "oddschecker" order: Hurricane Fly (7/2) - unlike last season, he has taken all his planned engagements with aplomb this time around, winning the Morgiana when the ill-fated Go Native tipped up at the last and, much less dramatically, bolting up from Unaccompanied and Thousand Stars in the Istabraq over Christmas. Next Sunday sees him out again in the Irish Champion Hurdle and it will be interesting to see which of the entered runners from the UK make the journey across the Irish Sea. None of the Irish challenger ought to bother him so it will be interesting to see which (if any) of Binocular, Countrywide Flame and Grandouet come across. At the moment it looks like Binocular, which probably won't tell us much, and Hurricane Fly ought to come out on top relatively easily, and he may shorten half a point for the big race. I think he looks very solid at the moment, I am prepared to write off last season as he had such a troubled preparation, and I'm happy with my 9/2 voucher. Darlan (4/1) - took a very confusing Christmas Hurdle with a smart turn of foot from the 2nd last. However, the heavy going and the presence of Raya Star in second place, leads me to dismiss this as a piece of relevant form. He is no doubt a talented horse but for me may not even be the best of Mr Henderson's and his price at the moment is shocking. Having said that, he may well quicken off the bend and win by 6 lengthe going away, but not for me. Grandouet (7/1) - I will be amazed if Barry Geraghty isn't on this fella and to me he looks to be Henderson's main contender. Ran a very encouraging comeback race behind Zarkandar on unsuitable ground and conceding 4lbs to the winner, and he will come on enormously for that. I'm sure he'll be kept apart from Binocular and Darlan in his prep race so may end up at Wincanton. Either way, I expect him to win handsomely and shorten significantly. 7/1 still looks a decent price, I think he will go off nearer 4/1 on the day but could he cope with a resurgant Hurricane Fly? Zarkandar (7/1) - stuck on well to take the International but at level weights on the big day you'd have to fancy Grandouet to reverse form. Tough, genuine and never knows when he's beat, I just think he is a smidgen short of Champion Hurdle material and I have to reluctantly strike him from the short list. Rock On Ruby (8/1) - the reigning champ was never going to be A1 in the International but it is a worry that he folded quite that tamely. In his champion season he won the Gerry Fielden and was just touched off by Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle - much more like it. He will undoubtably come on for the run but you'd be looking for a convincing performance in his prep race to back him with any confidence at Cheltenham. Oscar Whiskey (16/1) - clear value bet of the race if he runs, a top class animal who wipes the floor at 2m4f. If they chose to run him in the Champion and make plenty of use of him he could surprise them all. Hopefully he will get his chance ........................ Of the rest, last year's novices have failed to convince in open company this time around with both Cinders & Ashes and Countrywide Flame disappointing. Grumeti and Pearl Swan remain unexposed at bigger prices and there are still a couple of hgihly rated ex-flat horses engaged but at the moment my 1-2-3 would be: 1. Hurricane Fly 2. Grandouet 3. Oscar Whisky
I think Darlan is a lovely animal but I think Kempton absolutely suits him perfectly- it has historically suited the speediest horses and I think Darlan will follow in Binoculars footsteps and win the Christmas hurdle more than once. However against top class opposition at Cheltenham, I think he will travel into it perfectlty but get found out massively up the hill. I hope Oscar Whiskey goes for the World Hurdle because he will not stay and he will be short in the market so that I can get some extra value on the likes of Monksland. Pearl Swan looked suited to Cheltenham and would look the more interesting of the outsiders, but Grumeti will never win a Champion Hurdle in a million years and I'd be very surprised if he went close. Grandouet is my big fancy as it stands but I'm concerned that he might have been tip top in the international and may not come on as much as we might hope. However he still saw of Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar was fit from hi s reappearance, so being outstayed on soft ground giving 4lb away is something that I see him overturning in the spring.
Toppy I'm pretty sure Oscar Whisky will run in the Cleeve Hurdle next Saturday (weather permitting) and he is very likely to meet Reve De Sivola there. If the Cleeve goes ahead I think we will know one way or the other whether OW stays TBH if he doesn't win the Cleeve (i.e gets outstayed) then I think they'll skip Cheltenham altogether and aim him at the Aintree Hurdle again
Cheers for the heads up Oddy. Yes that might answer some questions then. To be honest, I think he is ideal for a Champion Hurdle and cannot believe that they won't run him in it. I know Nicky has some excellent 2 milers but he would certainly go into it with a live chance, and I suspect he is a stronger horse than he was when 3rd in the 2011 renewal.
Oddy, Countrywide Flame not disappointing, he didn't like going right handed. The trainer said so and they never come up with excuses for a poor run...ever! It was long trip back from Kempton to his northern base and that's what he decided. I do like this little horse and I'd love to see one of the big prizes go to a smaller yard. Still not without hope even though I don't buy this right and left hand nonsense.
