Qipco 2,000 Guineas

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George I am now very tempted to back Camelot along with my Abtaal bet. Trumpet Major beat a seriously poor Craven field. Funny how Hughes thought Bronterre was the better horse when they raced in the Dewhurst. Just my opinion but I will be stunned if TM wins on Saturday. Best of luck all the same - you probs think the same about Abtaal and Camelot and thats what makes this sport great.

As for the footy on Sunday I am buzzing for it. Not sure yet but at the moment its footy on tv and racing recording. Although could switch footy to laptop and watch racing on tv at the same time.
 
I still hold the view that this is between the raiding parties, I just can't see the UK horses being good enough. I don't think its a vintage renewal but we have three very interesting runners in the potential quality horses of Camelot, Abtaal and Born To Sea. Two of them are coming in with major reputations, possibly because of connections rather than form, and the other one Abtaal for me has some good form in the book and is race fit.

I like Abtaal and have backed him, but Camelot could be anything and Born To Sea could also be something rather good.
 
<laugh> if me not fancying Camelot is what's tempting you then I would say well played sir anything I put a line through is worth backing! Best of luck to you also I do think that Abtaal is a very interesting contender and probably the best of the French bunch. The money for him is perhaps telling too. I somewhat agree about the strength of the Craven field but I think TM won in a good time and is a completely different horse from last year which explains Hughes' decision. His sire was hardly raced as a 2yo and Dick Turpin also improved from 2-3 but as you say it's all about opinions. This Guineas imho is hard to call but I don't think 3 horses will get to the line quicker than TM. I will be the 1st to hold my hands up if Camelot does the business and given that I think he's bound to improve for a step up in trip if he does win then racing could have another superstar on it's hands I really believe that. I trust you will make the right decision re Sunday. ;) HWTL.
 
Trumpet Major's Craven time (sectionals anyway) was bad. I thought 12/1 was decent immediately after the race but was put off when the time info came through. He might run on into a place but I'd be disappointed if he won the thing.

The Guineas is never a race to go heavy on. I'm having a speculative few quid on Born To Sea but nothing more. I'd like to see one of the unexposed ones win it.
 
Zenyatta said:
Trumpet Major's Craven time (sectionals anyway) was bad. I thought 12/1 was decent immediately after the race but was put off when the time info came through. He might run on into a place but I'd be disappointed if he won the thing.

The Guineas is never a race to go heavy on. I'm having a speculative few quid on Born To Sea but nothing more. I'd like to see one of the unexposed ones win it.
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This.
 
Zen has that decent poster from the other forum expressed an opinion or is he national hunt only?
 
I notice Abtaal can be backed at 9s with billy hills but is best priced 8.8 on the exchanges for anyone who's into that sort of thing.
 
ta Zen, looks a bit technical this time for a Friday evening. Might give it a proper go tomorrow.
 
Racing Post Verdict (Adrian Cook) said this on the 2,000 Guineas:

"Aidan O'Brien has won this five times in the last 14 years and can take the first Classic of the season again, although preference is for the street-wise POWER (nap), who looks a genuine miling type, over Camelot who is surely Epsom bound. Born To Sea looks another strong Irish contender with the Djebel 1-2, French Fifteen and Abtaal, also likely to take a hand. Trumpet Major and Top Offer look the main hopes of the home team."

Looks likely either a French or Irish trained horse will win the race. I'd rather back Power than Camelot. But Born To Sea is my selection if the going isn't soft. Although the going is good to soft at the moment, I don't know if more rain is forecast.
 
Evening Zen. This Spook chap seems very intelligent and knowledgeable. Can you explain what this Dosage Index is and how it's applied. Very amused by his latest post re lack of knowledge from the Weekender on the subject. Glad to see he has eventually brought my selection in with a hope.
 
He knows his marbles. I don't know much about the Dosage Index to be honest Ron. All I know is that it give a possible stamina profile for a horse indicating their optimum distance but I wouldn't know the details.
 
Bustino75 said:
Although you can't fault Born to Sea's pedigree much (I suppose Invincible Spirit isn't a Sadler's Wells or even Cape Cross), I like the breeding of Top Offer. It's a really good family: El Gran Senor, Try My Best etc. . It's just asking a lot to get a horse from maiden company to Group 1 in one step, but Golan did it so it can be done. I don't think it matters much that he was withdrawn at Newbury. Why would you subject him to a slog in the mud when the big day is only 2 weeks away? So he carries my hopes.

Camelot makes me a liar because I said sometime last year that you never see Reform in a pedigree and that the Polygamy family seemed to have died out. And there you are: Camelot is a great great grandson of Polygamy's full sister One Over Parr (by Reform).
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There you go, Bustino! Reform has been waiting 45 years for a relative to atone for his not being entered in the 2000 Guineas. Well spotted!
 
Ron said:
Won the Racing Post Trophy and placed in the 2000 Gns
1971 High Top placed 1
1972 Noble Decree placed 2
1973 Apalachee placed 3
1994 Celtic Swing placed 2

Doesn't say much for the chances of Camelot. There is some logic in those stats in that a horse that wins top class 8f races as a 2yo may not have enough speed to win over 8f at 3, especially if the going in the 2yo race had some give in it. However if the ground is testing on Saturday that logic may become as useless as an inflatable dartboard.
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Apparently Camelot is not a typical Montjeu, being a more precocious sort. Also I have to recall that SNA could be considered an unfortunate loser of last year's renewal, finishing lame and off course for a year. I thought he ran a cracking Derby trial in that 2000 Gns but whether he could have ever won it is pure speculation. The other piece of information is that Camelot has a massive 131P rating from Timeform. Can anyone remember the last horse to come into the Guineas with a Timeform rating that high? I'm sure there have been some; but with a capital P?

I see my selection Hermival has been backed down to 14s but I heard this morning that Pricewise has tipped it. Could this be his 25th consecutive loser?
 
The Timeform ratings are weight adjusted, ie they include their weight allowance. I think I am right in saying that SNA came into the Guineas on 141.

No horse in this year's renewal has yet run within 7lbs of an average Guineas winner according to Timeform.
 
Zenyatta said:
The Timeform ratings are weight adjusted, ie they include their weight allowance. I think I am right in saying that SNA came into the Guineas on 141.

No horse in this year's renewal has yet run within 7lbs of an average Guineas winner according to Timeform.
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Sorry, I was forgetting; of course, the ratings are based on 10stone. His Master rating is 117P. That's a different matter completely. Thanks for the reminder Zen.
 
Congratulations to anybody that got fancy odds about Camelot ante-post and collected on his Guineas win. Well done to Joseph O'Brien on his first English Classic victory.

Before the race the best 2012 form available was the Prix Djebel; hence my prediction that there would be a French-trained winner. I did not fancy the favourite at all. I saw him as a middle distance horse who was being allowed to take his chance because the slow ground was going to make it a stamina test. As it was he used a combination of turn of foot and stamina to win the race and there did not appear to be any hard luck stories.

However, nobody should get carried away on the strength of one race. It may turn out that this was an ordinary Guineas and this year's wonder horse did not exactly hand out a thrashing on the bit.

Later on the card, Frankel's brother winning a slowly-run mile-and-a-quarter race did not settle any arguments about whether he [Frankel] will be effective beyond a mile. If they do decide to step him [Noble Mission] up considerably in class and run in the Dante Stakes at York, could he possibly be heading to Epsom to meet up with Camelot? Will either of them stay?
 
QuarterMoonII said:
Congratulations to anybody that got fancy odds about Camelot ante-post and collected on his Guineas win. Well done to Joseph O'Brien on his first English Classic victory.

Before the race the best 2012 form available was the Prix Djebel; hence my prediction that there would be a French-trained winner. I did not fancy the favourite at all. I saw him as a middle distance horse who was being allowed to take his chance because the slow ground was going to make it a stamina test. As it was he used a combination of turn of foot and stamina to win the race and there did not appear to be any hard luck stories.

However, nobody should get carried away on the strength of one race. It may turn out that this was an ordinary Guineas and this year's wonder horse did not exactly hand out a thrashing on the bit.

Later on the card, Frankel's brother winning a slowly-run mile-and-a-quarter race did not settle any arguments about whether he [Frankel] will be effective beyond a mile. If they do decide to step him [Noble Mission] up considerably in class and run in the Dante Stakes at York, could he possibly be heading to Epsom to meet up with Camelot? Will either of them stay?
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One can admit one was wrong or one can squirm...
 
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