Very interesting reading guy's, i too am a fan of Born to Sea but have yet decided. I'll have to do some more research before i finalise my bet's. May i ask why TopClass is taking a step back from the forums?
It's been raining off and on all day here at HQ. They'll need a warm sunny day tomorrow (not in the forecast) if the ground is to dry out significantly. At this rate good to soft is the very best you can hope for.
I have just put a massive £2.50 e/w on Boomerang Bob @ 100/1- only on the aspect of he will love the ground - speculative I know but not many horsese will get on the ground e.g. Camelot
Born To Sea would be a confident selection but for the predicted soft going. For that reason, I have preference for Abtaal. But Born To Sea is one for the future.
I think power is a cracking bet at 14/1 with ladbrokes, he won the coventry on good, good to soft, beaten next time out but I think he needed a step up in trip by then as in the coventry he was off the bridle early and stayed on really strongly, won the group 1 National stakes next on yielding to soft beating Dragon Pulse who had some nice form, then a running on 2nd in the Dewhurst, I think 1 mile will suit and he's proven on the ground. Question is weather he has trained on but that can be said about most of the field, at 14/1 i'll take the chance he has.
Won the Racing Post Trophy and placed in the 2000 Gns 1971 High Top placed 1 1972 Noble Decree placed 2 1973 Apalachee placed 3 1994 Celtic Swing placed 2 Doesn't say much for the chances of Camelot. There is some logic in those stats in that a horse that wins top class 8f races as a 2yo may not have enough speed to win over 8f at 3, especially if the going in the 2yo race had some give in it. However if the ground is testing on Saturday that logic may become as useless as an inflatable dartboard.
Just the one other interesting race for flat fans to follow at Newmarket- the 4.55 Listed contest features Mariners Cross (impressive maiden winner at Craven meeting) Noble Mission (Frankel full brother), Swedish Sailor (beat Noble Mission very convincingly at Yarmouth in maiden last year), and the unraced John Gosden Galileo colt Michaelangelo. If they all lineup, I'd say the winner ought to end up entered in the Derby. Interesting if Michaelangelo starts off there having been taken out of a maiden, they must think a fair bit of him. I just think he is one to keep tabs on this flat season, really nicely bred and some nice entries. Not a betting race, but one to analyse afterwards.
Toppy, in view of the stats on the Racing Post Trophy and Montjeu in relation to the 2000Gns will you be laying Camelot given his cramped odds?
Ron, I can't understand why so many members seem opposed to Camelot and favouring Born To Sea. Do they think Camelot is St Nicholas Abbey and Born To Sea is Sea The Stars? Firstly, the stats for the Racing Post Trophy seem irrelevant to me. It's never been a popular race with trainers- being 'end of season' -and has lacked the prestige of races like The Dewhurst. Another mile race , The Royal Lodge Stakes, has devalued in recent years- although both Royal Palace and Mr Baileys won it years ago before going on to win the 2000 Guineas. For me, this is a weak renewal of the Classic. Examine the second Favourite's form, Born To Sea. Whatever impression he created, he beat a horse (Pearl In The Sand) which has never won a race. Even if you accept his lameness when beaten by Nephrite, the latter hasn't exactly advertised the form by being turned over at 4/9 in his subsequent race. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Camelot's beaten too much either but Fencing and Talwar (his R.Post victims) seem better horses than Born To Sea's victims. Of the English and other Irish entries, Power seems much the best on form, but his price of 14/1 has to reflect that his stable feels Camelot is far superior. If indeed he is, then this race could be a formality. Yes, Top Offer could be anything but he's only won a maiden, and we have no real lines to the French horses who seem to have been beating each other. Nonetheless, they could pose a big threat. Overall this looks one of the poorest Guineas and that could presage a shock result. Given that the overall form is weak, I feel Camelot created a more favourable impression at Doncaster than any other horse in this race. For that reason alone, he would be my choice- given the second rate form of most of the opposition.
Looks like it is going to stay soft. After a fairly dry night we've had a persistent drizzle since about 6am. For those of you going to the Rowley Mile, particularly those coming for the first time, wrap up warm! The course has a microclimate all of its own and it is always several degrees colder up there than down in the town, and I can tell you now that it is chuffing freezing here at the moment!
Tam I think the concept of a "strong" or "weak" Guineas is entirely subjective anyway tbh. A "strong" looking Guineas would largely be based on 2YO form (as it seems more and more fashionable to avoid a prep run as a 3YO these days) which, as we know, does not by any means translate to 3YO form. Converesely, a Guineas may be judged "weak" if the winners of the big 2YO races don't line up - and yet may throw up a very good winner. If you look at Makfi's Guineas the whole nation wanted to be on SNA (even though he'd never raced below 8F) and allowed the first 4 to go off at 33/1 (Makfi), 16/1 (Dick Turpin), 12/1 (Canford Cliffs) and 25/1 (Xtension). Last year's 2000 GNS looked, on paper, a strong renewal but I would argue it turned out to be anything but. Yes Frankel was Pegasus-like but, with hindsight, he had every right to dismiss that field as impressively as he did. The strength of a Guineas cannot normally be judged until 3 or 4 months after the race. Who know, this years renewal may well turn out to be a cracker. We may well see Camelot go on to win the Derby, we may see Abtaal romp the Guineas, follow up in the St James and give Frankel the fright of his life in the QE II. Born To Sea could go on to emulate his brother. On the other hand, the field may be a bunch of rubbish with none of them rated above 120 by the end of the season. That's why I don't eve see the Guineas as a betting proposition - too early in the season, too many ifs and buts
Although you can't fault Born to Sea's pedigree much (I suppose Invincible Spirit isn't a Sadler's Wells or even Cape Cross), I like the breeding of Top Offer. It's a really good family: El Gran Senor, Try My Best etc. . It's just asking a lot to get a horse from maiden company to Group 1 in one step, but Golan did it so it can be done. I don't think it matters much that he was withdrawn at Newbury. Why would you subject him to a slog in the mud when the big day is only 2 weeks away? So he carries my hopes. Camelot makes me a liar because I said sometime last year that you never see Reform in a pedigree and that the Polygamy family seemed to have died out. And there you are: Camelot is a great great grandson of Polygamy's full sister One Over Parr (by Reform).
I think the reason people were opposed to Camelot is that he had all these question marks and was a 5/4 favourite. If he drifts to a more sensible price, as he looks like doing, then I suspect people will not be against him to the same extent. I'd love him to win but I couldn't even consider backing him at the price. Born To Sea has question marks also but is a more typical Guineas type. I take the view that the 2yo form is beatable and he is one that is open to any amount of improvement. I might be wrong but I'd rather take my chance on him at 9/1.
It only takes one horse to step up to the plate and scupper Camelot. I myself am not saying Camelot definately won't win - he has to have at least a chance - but I think 5/4 is one of the worst prices I've ever seen all things considered. As I said it only takes one of these horses to have trained on very nicely and I personally feel Camelot will want further too. Whether the cut in the ground will play into his hands relative to the field is something I'm struggling to evaluate. With regards to where I think the value is I think that it's very difficult to tell because we simply do not know how these horses have trained on. I always try to avoid hype and speculation at all classes and levels of racing because I think the market will tend to overreact. For me the horse with the standout 3 year old form in the book is the Hannon horse, Trumpet Major, who won 5L CD last month on what will be similar going in a smart time from the outside draw which he has again tomorrow. Hughes has chosen this one (admittedly over 40/1 outsider Bronterre but you can tell the Hannon's think a lot of that horse) and I think anyone placing an e/w bet at 9/1 would be unlucky to lose money.
Camelot is 7/4 with William Hill. Trumpet Major will be a disappointing winner of a classic imo not good enough
Yes Camelot is on the drift a bit RV but certainly a couple of days ago I believe he was best priced 5/4 and evens in places. Might be wrong but he's certainly been as short as best priced 6/4. I disagree about Trumpet Major though, he's doubled in size since his 2 year old form and his win the other day was impressive and I just got the impression that he could have finished quicker if he'd had another horse to battle. I can't wait. Gonna be difficult on the Sunday mate, how are you going to juggle the footy and the racing? I have to admit I'll have to have the racing on record!
