Power and Parish Hall are proven performers, but do they have that something special to win a Classic? Doubtful. Born To Sea is very interesting but is his lameness on his last run enough reason to give him a first rate chance? Doubtful. Top Offer could be anything, but he's only won a maiden. Personally I see the French horses- and any Al Zarooni runner- as providing big dangers, but I think Camelot is a worthy favourite. Comparisons with St Nicholas Abbey will put some people off him, but there's no real logic in that. If he turns up- as I believe he will- I wouldn't back against him, unless a French entry offers tempting value.
As some of you may have read on the Ten To Follow results page, I will be stepping away from the forum and racing, and will only be seen for the premium Group 1 races. My Guineas selection will look so obvious and star-tinted it is ridiculous, but I have reasoning and therefore the standout bet this week for me is...... BORN TO SEA 9/1 E.W He runs in the Sea The Stars colours, he is out of the wonder broodmare Urban Sea, but that alone will not win you a Guineas. John Oxx has played down this fellow ever since he came to the yard, he has had a nightmare time trying to fend off the media, yet he realised that he had shown so much promise at home he would debut in Listed company. John Oxx would not be sending this fellow to the Guineas if he did not think he belonged in a Group One. I've just rewatched his debut again and he was so much better than that field it is not even funny. He was as green as a connifer. Greener than the Incredible Hulks arse. He fell out of the stalls, he wandered around a bit in mid division, got held up with traffic proiblems, was green as grass when he finally got into daylight, but won going away hands and heels against Listed level performers. He was value for a great deal more than a one and a half length win and dont let the whole Sea The Stars bias fool you- watch that race for yourself and have a look at just how much he could have won by. Had an absolute shedload in hand. I think the straight mile looks tailor made for him. His pedigree screems that he will improve as a 3 year old and I think when you look at the way Galileo/Urban Sea/Sea The Stars/Black Sam Bellamy/All Too Beautiful (only raced as 3YO) went on from 2 to 3, you'd have to say that is a positive sign. He looked a bit leggy last season and I cannot wait to see this fellow in the paddock on Saturday. Unfancied? No superb gallop reports? Sea The Stars, I remind you, went off 8/1 for the Guineas. Oxx does remarkably well keeping things quiet, and he commented after his defeat to Nephrite saying he was lame and the turn of foot was missing. He was still 2nd in that Group 3 on only his second start, and given time to recover and a winter on his back, I think you are going to see a seriously improving animal who will not be quite as green as he looked last season. The pedigree looks idea for a mile- none of Urban Seas horses have lacked a gear and Invincible Spirit will add the pace he needs to maintain a really good position in the pack. http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/apr/28/2000-guineas-john-oxx?newsfeed=true "I don't have anybody putting pressure on me to run horses in England," Oxx explained last week, when asked about his record here. "Unlike trainers who are based in England and probably have owners who want to see their horses at Royal Ascot or in the Guineas or the Derby, mine only go if they have business going." Even so, he is content with the state of prize money in Ireland and is hardly the kind of man to chase high-profile contests elsewhere just to keep his profile high. "We have opportunities here, they do most of their racing at home and, if a horse is chosen to travel, it is usually worthy of the undertaking." While he does not expect to find another horse like Sea The Stars in his stable or anyone else's, Oxx notes that Born To Sea has the potential to be much better than he has shown. "He has a degree of his brother's ability, we just don't know how much," he says. "We're still guessing about him." When Born To Sea won his debut race at The Curragh in September, the Racing Post was rather breathless in reporting that he "possesses a more potent turn of foot than his sibling did at this very early stage of his career". Such excitement seemed premature when he was then beaten at Leopardstown in October but, around 15 minutes after the race, it became clear that he was injured. "He tore a muscle at the top of his quarters," Oxx says. "It must have happened at that start of the race, he pitched on to his nose when the stalls opened. As the race developed, he seemed to be climbing, he didn't have the push from behind. He did well to run as well as he did." Born To Sea is now fully recovered, has had "a good winter" and is enjoying a trouble-free preparation. Whether he is good enough to beat the hot Guineas favourite, Camelot, is not a question the trainer dare answer directly. "In a minute and a half, we'll know." I think this is going to be a really interesting miler. Forget the Derby, this fellow is going to be campaigned at a mile, maximum, and I think he is the real value call in the 2000 Guineas. The 2nd placed finish to Nephrite might be a godsend for anyone backing him this weekend, as he would be nowhere near 9/1 had he won. My personal opinion, and I may have read this totally wrong, so laugh at me if you wish, is that Akeed Mofeed is the hype horse of the stable who is very talented but never had a hope of being a Guineas horse (he was pulled out 'injured' but heads to the Derby), and I think he has somehow managed to slip under the radar with the horse that could have ended up the biggest hype horse in history had he have not calmed down any media reporters. He would not be sending him if he didnt possess the sort of class required to run in this field.
Nice review Toppy. I'm a big fan of John Oxx's and there is no doubt in my mind that he is sending what he considers a challenger over to contest a Classic. His incredible record in England speaks for itself and there won't be many more astute judges of their own horses capabilities than Oxx. At 9/1 I think your going to get far, far worse bets in your time - especially if Camelot comes out. With regards to Akeed Mofeed, I think he could be the real deal and will be backing him for The Derby.
Just to clarify ROTO, I meant hype horse in the sense Oxx used him as a distraction in the Guineas build up- I think he was always going straight up in trip towards the Derby, but he provided a great chance to take away some spotlight from BTS. I think Akeed Mofeed is a nice horse. Interesting runner at Epsom. Anyone think Camelot is nailed on to need a step up in trip?
Most Racing Post Trophy winners do at 3 Toppy - the last one I can remember who didn't was Celtic Swing
The market in the 2,000 Guineas is shifting quite a bit at the moment and with Camelot continuing to harden and take out so much of the book its now ‘9/1 bar one’. Following Mr O’Brien’s charge there are then a further 7 beasts all within 5 points of one another in the old betting. I would imagine that if a Pricewise like tip was circulated for an animal, in this bracket, then you could see his price reduced by as much as 50%. Maybe even more as a bit of positivity behind a runner in a market lacking inspiration, such as this, will have a massive effect. I’ve already spoken about how much I like Top Offer and think 9/1 re this one now looks really, really good. I wouldn’t put anyone, and I do mean anyone, off a wager at these odds. Camelot and he apart I think it’s a pretty poor field and unless some ‘unknown quantity’ emerges from the woodwork I can’t see much else figuring as so many have already shown what they are capable of and it doesn’t, I say doesn’t, look that exceptional.
Surely he won't run Top Offer on anything that has the word soft in it? I think we are heading for gd-gdsft in places.
Interesting stats in today's RP about Montjeu's Guineas runners: SOLENT 16 of 19 in 2005 2000 Guineas DRUMBEAT 6 of 9 in 2009 Irish 2000 Guineas HAIL CAESAR 7 of 9 in 2009 Irish 2000 Guineas ST NICHOLAS ABBEY 6 of 19 in 2010 2000 Guineas ENCOMPASING 13 of 13 in 2010 Irish 2000 Guineas Of course, SNA aside, this was a motley bunch, but still, not an encouraging record.
Bolger has a horse called Light Heavy (by Teofilo) and I would have been interested in this one but it isn't engaged. Does anyone know why? If he isn't injured then I would have to ask myself why has he chosen to go with Parish Hall (also by Teofilo). If he is the best in the stable then I think Parish Hall ew is a reasonable bet at 14's
The two horses I'll be focusing on are still Born To Sea and Abtaal. I do have my doubts on how Born To Sea will cope with soft going, even though the dam (Urban Sea) was unbeaten when she raced on soft or heavy (the sire Invincible Spirit never raced on soft or heavy going). For that reason, I have preference for Abtaal as he's proven with cut underfoot (and should reverse form with French Fifteen). But there's no doubt Born To Sea has lots of potential (returned lame after his second run, otherwise probably would still be unbeaten) - The Rowley Mile will suit him better than Camelot.
I see that if Camelot is to win the 2,000 Guineas then he is going to have to overcome a major negative ‘trend’. Namely that in the past 50 years only one horse has won the race after never previously running over a distance of less than 8 furlongs (and that horse was the legendary Dancing Brave). Nass, Mr Charlton has said that he believes that Top Offer would indeed be better on top of the ground but he’s indicated that he will run at the weekend unless the going becomes ‘extreme’.
Right my 2 against the field are: Parish Hall (14/1 general but 22/1 32Red) and Hermival (25/1 BS) Hermival courtesy of Timeform
I have rewatched Camelots wins without any sound so that no commentary or noise could throw my judgement. I am totally convinced he needs 10f as the bare minmum. Just like St Nicholas Abbey, he has a turn of foot, but he stays better than he quickens. Watch him at the line on his two starts- he's only just got into top gear. I think the Dante was the race for Camelot, tailor-made. However, OI'Brien was so embarassed about messing up St Nicholas Abbeys season by rushing him for the Guineas, it speaks volumes that he is risking his reputation again by running this horse at Newmarket. He obviously thinks an awful, awful lot and the way he travels it is no surprise. He looks such a well balanced horse that Epsom should be his race. He has the crusing speed and the stamina, and it takes a seriously special horse to win Guineas and a Derby. He reminds me a lot of his sire and for that reason, a mile looks to be on the sharp side. If he wins it will be a weak Guineas and you would have to think one of the unexposed runners will pose quite a big problem, and as I mentioned that is Born To Sea for me. I think O'Brien is running him in the Guineas as a Derby preparation and expect a massive run from Power. I can see Camelot being a running on 3rd and because he looks such a well made horse he should be able to recover in time for a step up in trip for the Derby, which is where he differs to SNA, who just wasnt ready. I still think he is their Derby horse, this is just a bonus that they know they can have a no lose shot at.
"If he wins it will be a weak Guineas and you would have to think one of the unexposed runners will pose quite a big problem, and as I mentioned that is Born To Sea for me." Toppy, a 'weak Guineas' it may well be, and therefore he may not need to be a special horse. I don't quite see his Doncaster win as you do. He seemed to quicken well enough to me- and from a relatively poor position; and, once he got to grips with them, he lengthened away. Always a good sign, especially out of the dip at Newmarket with predicted cut in the ground. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he raced quite prominently and galloped away from them. If there's a dark, special horse lying in wait, I think it will come from across the Channel.
Camelot is lay of the year his price is a farce. He'll want a mile and half. He might not even be the first O'Brien horse home. Montjeu's dont win UK G1s over a mile (at 3 or older) and Guineas winners dont start out of 8f as 2yo (bar Frankel ). For him to win he'll have to be very, very special and is well worth taking on at his ridiculous price.
I can't see Born To Sea out of the first three and as such have put my money where my mouth is and backed it with both barrels (each way that is). I've had a few quid on Power at 14/1 as an each way bet on a horse that has won a group one of soft.
