everytime i come on this thread to get involved Zen has pretty much expressed everything i wish to say. completely agree about the al ferof form being weak despite the all age race (though the experience will be valuable for the horse) and also that Peddlers will outstay SS up the hill.
The Arkle Challenge Trophy - Tuesday 13th March
- Thread starter Zenyatta
- Start date
Oddy/Zen, I largely agree with Oddy re. Al Ferof. I don't see anything wrong with his form and although he obviously will act on any ground (it was very dead against For Non Stop), I believe he'll do better on better going that he'll likely get at Cheltenham. Added to that, the likely breakneck pace of the Arkle should suit a horse who'll obviously get further-likewise the stiff uphill finish.
I also think he's likely to jump round, and I'm not convinced that applies to some of them eg. Menora, Peddler's Cross. I see him as a similar profile to Somersby when i backed him. Yes he may find one too good, but personally I can't knock him.
Zen, re. your "link" to Master Minded, that's dodgy. I've watched the King George about 6 times, and Master Minded was cantering before his bad mistake- and I'm not convinced something was amiss before then. Whether he stayed or not we may never know. Also, I don't think Somersby is a bad yardstick anyway - he's always tended to run his best races "with a stiff finish" over 2 miles eg. Chelt/Ascot.
You may think that both Al Ferof and Somersby come up a bit short, but I don't think Sprinter Sacre and Peddler's Cross' form is particularly top notch. When Sprinter Sacre beat the latter, then either Peddler's Cross had an off -day- or he's not the horse over fences he was over hurdles. Two losses and two easy wins against poor fields at Bangor don't read that good in my book.
Apart from a beating a poor Peddler's Cross on the day, what has Sprinter Sacre beaten? Not a lot! Therefore, is his price and reputation based on visual impression?- and not many favourites win the Arkle!
Personally, I'd rather back both al Ferof and Cue Card than Peddlers and Sprinter. I simply feel their overall form is better.
Overall, it's probably a race to leave alone from the betting angle, but I'll be having a bit on Cue Card- before he takes on Sprinter Sacre in the Game Spirit.
I also think he's likely to jump round, and I'm not convinced that applies to some of them eg. Menora, Peddler's Cross. I see him as a similar profile to Somersby when i backed him. Yes he may find one too good, but personally I can't knock him.
Zen, re. your "link" to Master Minded, that's dodgy. I've watched the King George about 6 times, and Master Minded was cantering before his bad mistake- and I'm not convinced something was amiss before then. Whether he stayed or not we may never know. Also, I don't think Somersby is a bad yardstick anyway - he's always tended to run his best races "with a stiff finish" over 2 miles eg. Chelt/Ascot.
You may think that both Al Ferof and Somersby come up a bit short, but I don't think Sprinter Sacre and Peddler's Cross' form is particularly top notch. When Sprinter Sacre beat the latter, then either Peddler's Cross had an off -day- or he's not the horse over fences he was over hurdles. Two losses and two easy wins against poor fields at Bangor don't read that good in my book.
Apart from a beating a poor Peddler's Cross on the day, what has Sprinter Sacre beaten? Not a lot! Therefore, is his price and reputation based on visual impression?- and not many favourites win the Arkle!
Personally, I'd rather back both al Ferof and Cue Card than Peddlers and Sprinter. I simply feel their overall form is better.
Overall, it's probably a race to leave alone from the betting angle, but I'll be having a bit on Cue Card- before he takes on Sprinter Sacre in the Game Spirit.
They've run either twice or three times over fences. To even suggest any of the three are remotely exposed is ridiculous.
I've backed Peddlers for the race so there's no bias in what I say now...
He put in an almighty performance to run the Fly to within a couple of lengths but has then bottomed out at Aintree, won two easy novice chases and failed miserably when against a class act. Has anyone considered the possibility Peddlers Cross is not the same horse that ran at Cheltenham a year ago?
He put in an almighty performance to run the Fly to within a couple of lengths but has then bottomed out at Aintree, won two easy novice chases and failed miserably when against a class act. Has anyone considered the possibility Peddlers Cross is not the same horse that ran at Cheltenham a year ago?
I agree 100% with what you say about Al Ferof Tam. I think the difference is that because of the likelihood of him finding one (or two) too good I am eliminating him from my thinking about who can win the race. His form is good, he will like the ground, he will like the track, he will like the fast pace. The problem I have is that I just don't think he is or has the potential to be good enough at 2m. For me that was exposed in the Victor Chandler.
As for the form of the other two, it is less 'solid', for want of a better word, than Al Ferof's and is therefore far more reliant on your impression of what they might achieve. My impression is that both have the potential to be much better than they have already shown, and the form they have already shown is at the very least comparable to Al Ferof. I would be disappointed in such a vintage year if one or both of them was unable to beat Al Ferof, a horse who is already being talked of as a King George/Gold Cup horse. He might run on into a place but I don't think he can win.
Cue Card is a tricky one. When I was having a really good look at the race around New Year time, he was the only horse whose form didn't match up with my initial impression. He beat For Non Stop far easier than Al Ferof managed and giving him 7lbs, plus he had Walkon back in 3rd who had been really impressive the time before at Exeter. That form would give him every chance in this race. My doubt with him is his jumping. He lacks any sort of fluency at his fences, he has no scope, he is fiddly and so on. For that reason I struggle to believe that the two horses he defeated at Newbury ran up to their best form. That is a big assumption to make because I am lowering the performance of two horses in order to not rate one as highly as might otherwise be the case. If that assumption is wrong, and he is as good as that form makes him look, then he has a big chance, no doubt about it. As such my argument against him is far less convincing (to myself anyway) then my argument against Al Ferof. I am against Al Ferof because I think there is concrete form in the book to say that he is not good enough at 2m to win an Arkle this hot. I am against Cue Card because I don't really like him and I don't think he jumps well enough, and I don't think he finds a lot off the bridle. And that might all be true but the formbook says he has a good chance (better than his price) in this. My opposition to him is simply because I don't like him, I struggle to make a convincing form argument to be as strongly against him as I would like to be.
Hope that makes sense.
As for the form of the other two, it is less 'solid', for want of a better word, than Al Ferof's and is therefore far more reliant on your impression of what they might achieve. My impression is that both have the potential to be much better than they have already shown, and the form they have already shown is at the very least comparable to Al Ferof. I would be disappointed in such a vintage year if one or both of them was unable to beat Al Ferof, a horse who is already being talked of as a King George/Gold Cup horse. He might run on into a place but I don't think he can win.
Cue Card is a tricky one. When I was having a really good look at the race around New Year time, he was the only horse whose form didn't match up with my initial impression. He beat For Non Stop far easier than Al Ferof managed and giving him 7lbs, plus he had Walkon back in 3rd who had been really impressive the time before at Exeter. That form would give him every chance in this race. My doubt with him is his jumping. He lacks any sort of fluency at his fences, he has no scope, he is fiddly and so on. For that reason I struggle to believe that the two horses he defeated at Newbury ran up to their best form. That is a big assumption to make because I am lowering the performance of two horses in order to not rate one as highly as might otherwise be the case. If that assumption is wrong, and he is as good as that form makes him look, then he has a big chance, no doubt about it. As such my argument against him is far less convincing (to myself anyway) then my argument against Al Ferof. I am against Al Ferof because I think there is concrete form in the book to say that he is not good enough at 2m to win an Arkle this hot. I am against Cue Card because I don't really like him and I don't think he jumps well enough, and I don't think he finds a lot off the bridle. And that might all be true but the formbook says he has a good chance (better than his price) in this. My opposition to him is simply because I don't like him, I struggle to make a convincing form argument to be as strongly against him as I would like to be.
Hope that makes sense.
I really like Cue Card and think he's unfortunate to be racing in an Arkle that is above average. Imho he's not without chance in this race but looking at his form he always seems to get found out by the really top level horses whilst still running an honest race. The strength of this field means that will probably happen again but, price dependant, I might even have a little bit of dough on him to place. The jockey is a negative though. I have him and Al Ferof in a fight for 3rd. In the supreme Al Ferof stayed on the better but I just wonder if Cue Card (and both the SSs for that matter) were produced too soon.
I am really looking forward to seeing him on saturday, should answer a lot of questions re his quality and his jumping. probably the race i'm looking forward to most, though i also hope Long Run is unimpressive and drifts in the GC market so I can steam in
I am really looking forward to seeing him on saturday, should answer a lot of questions re his quality and his jumping. probably the race i'm looking forward to most, though i also hope Long Run is unimpressive and drifts in the GC market so I can steam in
I also hope Long Run is unimpressive and drifts in the GC market so I can steam in
I am hoping for this too, and I suspect it might well happen. I am hoping a good few are bold enough to take him on. 8 runners will do just nicely.
Zen, I think everything you say is mostly fair comment.
The one thing I might disagree with is your comment ..."to win an Arkle this hot."
Is it that hot? People tend to go overboard with horses. Months ago some were saying that Peddler's Cross was a good thing (because he was a top hurdler), but how hot is he over fences?
When Sprinter Sacre beat him easily, there's a lot of horses who could have won and been 'visually impressive' that day- given the way PC ran.
People raved about Cue Card (and Dunguib)winning a top hurdle because he hosed up in a relatively meaningless Cheltenham Bumper. We know where that went.
Nonetheless, Cue Card's chase form is decent and he's not without a good each way shout, especially over two miles. The Game spirit should be informative, but what price will he be if he beats Sprinter?
If I had to pick an outsider, I 'd go for Bog Warrior. Yes he's fallen twice in his career, but otherwise he's unbeaten and his slaughtering of both Flemenstar and Shinrock Paddy before Xmas was very impressive; and he was hacking when he fell against Blackstairmountain last time. Flemenstar is unbeaten since and would certainly come into the reckoning the way he won last week.
As always, it's a fascinating contest- and the result may be far different than expected- but I don't see a tremendous strength in depth, based on chase form alone.
The one thing I might disagree with is your comment ..."to win an Arkle this hot."
Is it that hot? People tend to go overboard with horses. Months ago some were saying that Peddler's Cross was a good thing (because he was a top hurdler), but how hot is he over fences?
When Sprinter Sacre beat him easily, there's a lot of horses who could have won and been 'visually impressive' that day- given the way PC ran.
People raved about Cue Card (and Dunguib)winning a top hurdle because he hosed up in a relatively meaningless Cheltenham Bumper. We know where that went.
Nonetheless, Cue Card's chase form is decent and he's not without a good each way shout, especially over two miles. The Game spirit should be informative, but what price will he be if he beats Sprinter?
If I had to pick an outsider, I 'd go for Bog Warrior. Yes he's fallen twice in his career, but otherwise he's unbeaten and his slaughtering of both Flemenstar and Shinrock Paddy before Xmas was very impressive; and he was hacking when he fell against Blackstairmountain last time. Flemenstar is unbeaten since and would certainly come into the reckoning the way he won last week.
As always, it's a fascinating contest- and the result may be far different than expected- but I don't see a tremendous strength in depth, based on chase form alone.
Arkle winners this century are:
Year - Horse - Arkle Rating
2000 - Tiutchev (159)
2001 - No Race
2002 - Moscow Flyer (159)
2003 - Azertyuiop (161)
2004 - Well Chief (146)
2005 - Contraband (153)
2006 - Voy Por Ustedes (162)
2007 - My Way De Solzen (159)
2008 - Tidal Bay (166)
2009 - Forpadydeplasterer (156)
2010 - Sizing Europe (157)
2011 - Captain Chris (160)
This year we already have Sprinter Sacre (161), Peddlers Cross (160) and Al Ferof (160), and to a lesser extent Cue Card (155)
In the context of the ratings of previous winners then this year's renewal is a 'hot' one, no doubt about it. A vintage renewal.
So Al Ferof on only his 3rd chasing start, gets beat by a couple of seasoned chasers, around Ascot on soft ground and people are holding that against him. I remember last years Supreme, I went through the form of every horse with a fine tooth combe, looking at every horse every runner had run against and were those horse's had finished before and afterwards, and I came to the conclusion that Spirit Son had the best form in the race. I had Al Ferof down as about 5th, but on spring ground at Cheltenham he is a completely different horse. He would have won the Bumper had Cue Card not had a big weight allowance on the whole field, and we all know how he went in last years supreme.
He is one of those horse's who's form over the winter should be taken with a pinch of salt, obviously if Sprinter Sacre shows up then he will only be playing for 2nd, but I've got a feeling that after Saturdays game spirit, Sprinter Sacre's connections will have no choice but to supplement him for the Champion Chase. With Finians Rainbow having fluffed his lines, and age looking to have caught up with my old fav Big Zeb, Sizing Europe is the only horse SS will have to worry about, and from what I've seen from him so far, I think he has more than enough talent to knock SE off his perch. Which would leave Al Ferof as the one to beat in the Arkle as far as I'm concerned
He is one of those horse's who's form over the winter should be taken with a pinch of salt, obviously if Sprinter Sacre shows up then he will only be playing for 2nd, but I've got a feeling that after Saturdays game spirit, Sprinter Sacre's connections will have no choice but to supplement him for the Champion Chase. With Finians Rainbow having fluffed his lines, and age looking to have caught up with my old fav Big Zeb, Sizing Europe is the only horse SS will have to worry about, and from what I've seen from him so far, I think he has more than enough talent to knock SE off his perch. Which would leave Al Ferof as the one to beat in the Arkle as far as I'm concerned
Wellllllllll.............. Shergar and I have had the old chat about Sprinter Sacre vs Peddlers Cross on a couple of other threads, but I can't help but say that I think that saying that Sprinter Sacre has 'more than enough talent to knock Sizing Europe off his perch' is, to my mind, a very optimistic claim.
The more I think about the Al Ferof form the better I think it is. He's vastly better on staying tracks (ie. Cheltenham) and in the summer (or at least he was last season) than elsewhere. If you assume that Somersby's Victor Chandler performance deserved a rating of around 160 - I agree he is over-rated, then that puts Al Ferof somewhere around 155. I think he stands to come on significantly for a) better ground, b) a more testing track, and c) the fact it will be later in the year and his peak time to run. I think that given how last years Supreme went, I really could see a straight repeat on the cards, Al Ferof flying over the last and staying on past SS, PC and CC. With a perfect ride from Ruby I think it's definitely on the cards.
I certainly would be taking him in a match bet with Cue Card (and Sprinter Sacre, but that argument is a long one).
P.S. Shergar - don't suppose you've had a look at the 'Cheltenham Betting Competition thread have you?
If you're so confident that SS is so good, then I'd be interested in a match bet against him (with a no-bet if SS doesn't turn up, so that you can't loose by default if he goes for the champion chase, if you genuinely think that's a possibility)?
The more I think about the Al Ferof form the better I think it is. He's vastly better on staying tracks (ie. Cheltenham) and in the summer (or at least he was last season) than elsewhere. If you assume that Somersby's Victor Chandler performance deserved a rating of around 160 - I agree he is over-rated, then that puts Al Ferof somewhere around 155. I think he stands to come on significantly for a) better ground, b) a more testing track, and c) the fact it will be later in the year and his peak time to run. I think that given how last years Supreme went, I really could see a straight repeat on the cards, Al Ferof flying over the last and staying on past SS, PC and CC. With a perfect ride from Ruby I think it's definitely on the cards.
I certainly would be taking him in a match bet with Cue Card (and Sprinter Sacre, but that argument is a long one).
P.S. Shergar - don't suppose you've had a look at the 'Cheltenham Betting Competition thread have you?
If you're so confident that SS is so good, then I'd be interested in a match bet against him (with a no-bet if SS doesn't turn up, so that you can't loose by default if he goes for the champion chase, if you genuinely think that's a possibility)?
As you know Danish Pastry I'm not one for hype horses, and love to try and take them on. Peddlers Cross was the biggest hype horse in training prior to his comprehensive defeat at Kempton, a defeat I correctly predicted.
Now Sprinter Sacre has stolen the hype horse mantle, though there is something about the way he has performed so far, that makes me think he is very special. After watching his chasing debut at Doncaster, I was convinced that I'd never seen a horse as impressive on chasing debut, that's why I was so confident Peddlers Cross would be brushed aside very easily, and urged everyone to bet like men on Sprinter Sacre.*
I'm telling you all again this horse is very special, and needs to be steamed into at 5/4 on saturday, it's time to bet like men again. I am almost certain that whatever race he goes for at the festival, it will be a case of how far. Sizing Europe is a classy horse, but Sprinter Sacre is one of those horse's that only come around once in a while, and would brush aside Sizing Europe just as he did Peddlers Cross.*
Obviously I spotted this talent, long before I heard what Geraghty has had to say on the horse, but after Kempton, he was sure that he hadn't sat on anything better before, and that includes Moscow Flyer.*
As for your match bet, il be more than happy to back my instinct, I haven't had a look at the thread yet, but il get round to it. I'm so confident, I won't just give you Al Ferof, il give you the rest of the field against him*
Now Sprinter Sacre has stolen the hype horse mantle, though there is something about the way he has performed so far, that makes me think he is very special. After watching his chasing debut at Doncaster, I was convinced that I'd never seen a horse as impressive on chasing debut, that's why I was so confident Peddlers Cross would be brushed aside very easily, and urged everyone to bet like men on Sprinter Sacre.*
I'm telling you all again this horse is very special, and needs to be steamed into at 5/4 on saturday, it's time to bet like men again. I am almost certain that whatever race he goes for at the festival, it will be a case of how far. Sizing Europe is a classy horse, but Sprinter Sacre is one of those horse's that only come around once in a while, and would brush aside Sizing Europe just as he did Peddlers Cross.*
Obviously I spotted this talent, long before I heard what Geraghty has had to say on the horse, but after Kempton, he was sure that he hadn't sat on anything better before, and that includes Moscow Flyer.*
As for your match bet, il be more than happy to back my instinct, I haven't had a look at the thread yet, but il get round to it. I'm so confident, I won't just give you Al Ferof, il give you the rest of the field against him
*
Zen, re. your table of ratings, I think you'll find that Captain Chris was only 153 at Cheltenham last year.
But I ask you, do you accept a chase rating of 160 for Peddler's Cross and 161 for Sprinter Sacre?
The only decent horse that PC has beaten over fences was Minella Class, a horse that's never won a chase and hasn't got a rating over sticks.
As for SS, his chase rating is based on one run against Peddler's Cross who was heavily eased by his jockey- and looked as if McGuire wanted to pull him up, so poor was he on the day.
Personally, I'm not buying those ratings until they can earn them in the Arkle- or prove yet again the handicapper's over-assessment from Hurdles form.
Food for thought... If Sprinter Sacre was trained by Ivor Decenthorseatlast and ridden by Ivan Nackoffallingoff- instead of Henderson/Geraghty combination, his ante post price on form would be 12/1-16/1 for the Arkle; and, continuing that theme, if McGuire had pulled up Peddlers in his last race(as having gone wrong), they'd be offering at least 20/1 on SS.
Racing is so much about hullabaloo, top trainers & jockeys, media, hype, visual impressions , etc.
I accept SS could turn out to be the "real deal," but an ante-post price of around 9/4 is a sick joke!
But I ask you, do you accept a chase rating of 160 for Peddler's Cross and 161 for Sprinter Sacre?
The only decent horse that PC has beaten over fences was Minella Class, a horse that's never won a chase and hasn't got a rating over sticks.
As for SS, his chase rating is based on one run against Peddler's Cross who was heavily eased by his jockey- and looked as if McGuire wanted to pull him up, so poor was he on the day.
Personally, I'm not buying those ratings until they can earn them in the Arkle- or prove yet again the handicapper's over-assessment from Hurdles form.
Food for thought... If Sprinter Sacre was trained by Ivor Decenthorseatlast and ridden by Ivan Nackoffallingoff- instead of Henderson/Geraghty combination, his ante post price on form would be 12/1-16/1 for the Arkle; and, continuing that theme, if McGuire had pulled up Peddlers in his last race(as having gone wrong), they'd be offering at least 20/1 on SS.
Racing is so much about hullabaloo, top trainers & jockeys, media, hype, visual impressions , etc.
I accept SS could turn out to be the "real deal," but an ante-post price of around 9/4 is a sick joke!
Tam....I'm not realy sure that's the case, the trainer jockey combination does help, but it doesn't have as big an impact on the price as your claiming. Any half decent judge could watch Sprinter Sacre's performance's so far and realise he's pure class, he bolted up by 25 lenghs on the bit on debut, and was soaring over every fence. I was amazed that he wasn't installed as Arkle favourite straight after that, as he was miles more impressive than either Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross on there debut's.
Time For Rupert wasn't trained or ridden by 'top' connections, but punters weren't put off backing him into 7/4 for last season's RSA. Though maybe if TFR did have Henderson and Geraghty, then the result may have been different. Punters will always bet on form first, before they take into account the connections
Time For Rupert wasn't trained or ridden by 'top' connections, but punters weren't put off backing him into 7/4 for last season's RSA. Though maybe if TFR did have Henderson and Geraghty, then the result may have been different. Punters will always bet on form first, before they take into account the connections
Hi, Shergs. We'll have to beg to differ on that one!
Another thing worth bearing in mind about SS. Al Ferof did about a 10 legth turnaround on him from on the run to the last to the winning post. Putting it simply, SS didn't get up the hill.
I accept hurdles aren't chases, but it would be a worry for me if I'd backed SS at any price.
Another thing worth bearing in mind about SS. Al Ferof did about a 10 legth turnaround on him from on the run to the last to the winning post. Putting it simply, SS didn't get up the hill.
I accept hurdles aren't chases, but it would be a worry for me if I'd backed SS at any price.
Shergs, this question for you:
If Sprinter Sacre deals with Cue Card as convincingly as I expect him too, do you think Mr Henderson would be inclined to go the Champion Chase route?
I'm a big defender of Peddlers Cross and Al Feorf as we all know how important course form is, but if Newbury goes ahead and Sprinter Sacre brushes them aside hardly off the bridle, then it must cross their minds? The Champion Chase looks ripe for an exciting challenger. That said though, does SS even have an entry?
If Sprinter Sacre deals with Cue Card as convincingly as I expect him too, do you think Mr Henderson would be inclined to go the Champion Chase route?
I'm a big defender of Peddlers Cross and Al Feorf as we all know how important course form is, but if Newbury goes ahead and Sprinter Sacre brushes them aside hardly off the bridle, then it must cross their minds? The Champion Chase looks ripe for an exciting challenger. That said though, does SS even have an entry?
That wasn't the real Peddlers Cross at Kempton. Even if you think Sprinter Sacre is better you have to admit he did't beat a 100% Peddlers. Also Kempton and Chelters are probably the two most different courses in England but regardless that wasn't the same horse that finished inside 2lengths to Hurricane Fly.
Tam....I'm not realy sure that's the case, the trainer jockey combination does help, but it doesn't have as big an impact on the price as your claiming. Any half decent judge could watch Sprinter Sacre's performance's so far and realise he's pure class, he bolted up by 25 lenghs on the bit on debut, and was soaring over every fence. I was amazed that he wasn't installed as Arkle favourite straight after that, as he was miles more impressive than either Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross on there debut's.
Time For Rupert wasn't trained or ridden by 'top' connections, but punters weren't put off backing him into 7/4 for last season's RSA. Though maybe if TFR did have Henderson and Geraghty, then the result may have been different. Punters will always bet on form first, before they take into account the connections
What the hell are you talking about Shergs? That is utter rubbish presumably because you've got a hard on for Sprinter Sacre. Peddlers couldn't have been more impressive on chase debut so to say SS was 'miles more impressive on debut' is a huge stretch of the truth.
Sprinter Sacre hasn't proven a thing at Cheltenham so i can't bunderstand why anyone would plunge on him at 9/4 given he's a probable non-stayer in a race where favourites have a terrible record.
He'll win on Saturday (and I'll be backing him with one of your man bets) which is going to make him around 5/4 for the Arkle at which point I'm going to lay him for fun.
He'll win on Saturday (and I'll be backing him with one of your man bets) which is going to make him around 5/4 for the Arkle at which point I'm going to lay him for fun.
The table is the rating they were awarded for winning the race. It shows that this season we have three horses that have already achieved the level required to win most renewals of the Arkle, therefore indicating that it is a 'hot renewal', a vintage renewal, or however you would like to phrase it.
Yes and yes. I have justified both earlier in this thread so won't do so again. The exciting thing is that both appear capable of far better and I fully expect this season's Arkle winner to break the 166 recorded by Tidal Bay.
