I've got to be honest, I was hoping for a Somersby win and for Al Ferof's price to drift for the Arkle. Somersby is a very good horse at Ascot, ask Master Minded! So I think Al Ferof has run up to a good level there. The problem is that we don't know how bloody good Sprinter Sacre is. He has looked sensational, and might well prove that in the Arkle. I think it might be ablessing in disguise for Peddlers Cross to get beaten. He will be prepared to the maximum for the Arkle with a lack of pressure and its a case of going to try and beat Sprinter Sacre as opposed to stopping the rest beat him. Fantastic race in prospect and lets hope they all turn up and finish safe and sound so we can reflect on a crackerjack of a race. I like Peddlers Cross at the prices at this stage. If I could get Al Ferof at 8s or 9s I'd be in, but I'm holding fire at the moment.
Entries are out: THE RACING POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE Class 1, Grade One, Total Prize Fund £130,000, 2.05pm, Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 13, 2012, two miles. For novice 5-y-o & upwards, two miles. Weights: 11st 7lb. Allowances: mares 7lb. Entries closed January 24, entries revealed January 26 (27 entries), scratchings deadline February 21, six-day confirmation stage March 7, final declaration stage 10.00am, March 12. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Monday, January 23, 2012. May not include some overseas form. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 111-113 AL FEROF (FR) 7 John Hales Paul Nicholls 2-0111U ALASI 8 Shully Liebermann Paul Webber 60-1321 ASTRACAD (FR) 6 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies 1-35 BAGBER 6 Allan McLuckie Willie Mullins IRE 1-63435 BAILY GREEN (IRE) 6 Adam Scott Mouse Morris IRE 20-2611 BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN (IRE) 7 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 1F1-11F BOG WARRIOR (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE 4/210-P1 CALL THE POLICE (IRE) 9 DD Racing Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 16250-1 CRISTAL BONUS (FR) 6 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls 42-1U21 CUE CARD 6 Jean Bishop Colin Tizzard 6/16-2U5 ESCORT'MEN (FR) 6 Donlon, Doyle & MacDonald Paul Nicholls U32313 FOILDUBH (IRE) 8 John Ryan John Ryan IRE F0-F222 FOR NON STOP (IRE) 7 Jared Sullivan Nick Williams 132-1F1 KID CASSIDY (IRE) 6 J P McManus Nicky Henderson 001212 KUMBESHWAR 5 McNeill Family & Nigel Bunter Alan King 60-1124 LUCKY WILLIAM (IRE) 8 Garden Kingdom Syndicate Tom Cooper IRE 5-4U411 MENORAH (IRE) 7 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs 3-12232 NEAREST THE PIN (IRE) 7 Sox Syndicate Tony Martin IRE 021-15 PACHA DU POLDER (FR) 5 The Stewart & Wylie Families Paul Nicholls 120-112 PEDDLERS CROSS (IRE) 7 Tim Leslie Donald McCain F1-F2 REALT MOR (IRE) 7 Mrs Pat Sloan Nicky Richards 01P-055 SANCTUAIRE (FR) 6 Jared Sullivan Paul Nicholls 133-141 SHOT FROM THE HIP (GER) 8 J P McManus Edward O'Grady IRE 61/11-11 SIR DES CHAMPS (FR) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE 2113-11 SPRINTER SACRE (FR) 6 Caroline Mould Nicky Henderson 012000 TAJWEED (IRE) 7 Brian Comer Luke Comer IRE 033214 ZAYNAR (FR) 7 Men In Our Position Nick Williams 27 entries 11 Irish-trained
Shaping up to be the race of the festival. The big are all known to us but if Menorah can sort out his jumping he's a real threat, Cue Card isn't just making up the numbers and the likes of For Non Stop and Call the Police are seriously talented horses in their own right. Look forward to this one...
copied from betfairs view for those who are intrested; The Arkle, despite the smallest initial entry in over 20 years, promises to be one of the highlights of the Festival. A strong batch of good hurdlers have switched to fences this season and it's likely the majority of them will turn up here. Last year's Champion Hurdle runner-up Peddlers Cross, the best hurdler to go chasing this season, won his first two starts impressively before coming unstuck when favourite for the Wayward Lad at Kempton on Boxing day. However, a problem came to light subsequently, so Peddlers Cross is better judged on his earlier form. The Wayward Lad went to Sprinter Sacre, who was making it two out of two over fences; he was certainly impressive and jumps really well, though, so far as his form goes, he's more style and potential rather than substance at the moment. Sprinter Sacre finished third in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Festival a year ago, having progressed well over hurdles, but, though not fully exposed, his form in that sphere would be behind the others at the head of the Arkle market. The Supreme was won by Al Ferof, who has already achieved a similarly high level of form over fences in just three starts, winning two graded events for novices and finishing an excellent third in an open Grade 1 at Ascot last weekend. Although, it's in part about opportunity, Al Ferof's effort at Ascot is the best piece of chasing form shown by any likely to line up here. Neither Peddlers Cross nor Al Ferof seem unlikely to be seen again before Cheltenham, but Sprinter Sacre has a couple of options, including the Lightning Novices' Chase at Doncaster on Saturday and the Betfair Super Saturday Chase, otherwise known as the Game Spirit, at Newbury next month. If he ran in open company in the latter, Sprinter Sacre may well have the chance to show form a bit more solid than he has so far. The high-class hurdler Menorah, another winner of the Supreme, is also entered at Doncaster and a good performance if he takes his chance could see him shorten in the Arkle market. He would be three from three over fences but for unseating when in control at Exeter but has made a significant mistake in the latter stages of all those races and the communication with his rider Richard Johnson could be better. An error-free round would boost his claims. Cue Card finished fourth behind Al Ferof in the Supreme last March, having won the Champion Bumper from him in 2010. So far over fences, Cue Card has been pretty convincing over trips at two-and-a-quarter miles or more, indeed is unfortunate not to be three from three on completed starts, winning the race everywhere but the line when beaten by RSA Chase candidate Bobs Worth at Newbury. That quintet set such a high standard that any of the other potential runners in the Arkle would have to improve significantly to get a look in. For Non Stop makes significantly more appeal for the Jewson. He still makes more appeal as a Cheltenham candidate than Blackstairmountain, who took a long time to get past Notus de La Tour in a Grade 1 novice at Leopardstown at Christmas and whose two previous visits to the Festival haven't suggested he's anywhere near up to the class required. Blackstairmountain is a likely runner in the Irish Arkle on Sunday. There's a case to be made for any of the front five in the betting for the Arkle, but Sprinter Sacre just looks the wrong price. Menorah's tendency to make a mistake is a worry, though in terms of ability he ought to be a bit shorter in the market. The best option at this stage, though, is Al Ferof. He has had a trouble-free campaign, has jumped really well on all three starts and has the best form in the race. He looks the bet at 7.6.
Thanks for that Wooly. Interesting comment there, about Menorah, I think someone on here pointed this out on his last run. I think they'll get it right on the day and will win
Pricewise seems to have a 'thing' for Hobbs/Johnson/Whateley. After putting up Captain Chris for the Gold Cup, Wishfull Thinking for the Champion Chase and now Menorah for the Arkle. Understandable selection and whilst I haven't yet read the logic I would assume something along the lines of; proven Festival form, can improve his jumping, likes the track etc. Price was 16/1.
That's funny - I looked at Oddschecker last night and those disgusting odds compilers of the organisations that used to be bookmakers, shortened the front 4 on the betting scared of the Pricewise selection and desperate not to lay a bet - I hope they've all been filled in this morning. Hills went 2/1 Sprinter Scare, 7/2 Peddlers, 11/2 Al Ferof and 7/1 Cue Card, that's an embarrassment to the industry and Hills should be ashamed - no doubt they've slashed Menorah in to 10/1 (without having taken a penny) and left the others where they are.....
In general last night the blue was for Peddlers Cross, Cue Card and Bog Warrior. Nothing for Menorah last night and all his other selections have been easily identifiable the night before. He hasn't shortened up a great deal either. Still 16/1 available with Ladbrokes.
Zen - my issue was that the bookies shortened up the leading players in preparation for the Pricewise article and a deliberate ploy to avoid taking a bet - 6 weeks before the race and running scared ? Bookmaking has changed sadly...
Indeed it has. It would seem the ideal race to actually have an opinion and take a stand. Sadly none of the bookies today are prepared to go out on a limb.
Be staggered if Bog Warrior runs Zen. If he did turn up,and the ground was juicy,I would easily prefer him to the hype horses such as PC and AF who,as I predicted in November,were easily brushed aside when facing proper opposition.Grand Crus will go the same way when his stamina gives out over 3m+.Wont stay the CGC trip if he runs in that which seems unlikely. Good hurdlers don't automatically make good chasers.Bookmakers love those who take it for granted that they will
Can't be having Al Ferof as a hype horse Dex, his run in the Victor Chandler was very good for a novice and way in front of anything else a novice has shown this season
It was impressive because he did it against seasoned chasers and it's not often we get a chance to see talented novices taking on the big boys - he made a couple of errors that day and still finished in front of some seriously talented horses with a heap of chasing experience, he could hardly have been more impressive if I'm honest. Trouble is the Arkle looks set to be the hottest renewal for as long as I can remember, he may still be good enough of course....
I agree that he isn't a hype horse but I don't agree that his Victor Chandler form is way in front of anything else a novice has shown this season. I actually think the whole form of the race is hugely overrated. The fact that it was against older horses is irrelevant in my eyes. The horses in front of him were Somersby and Finian's Rainbow, two horses that have finished 2nd in the past two renewals of the Arkle, both of which were weaker than this year's. In my opinion I have him running slightly better than his previous two efforts but nothing more.
At this stage Im personally siding with Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof. Al Ferof is no hype horse, He was thrown in at the deep end with seasoned chasers in the Victor Chandler and more than held his own, Peddlers Cross clearly ran no race against Sprinter Sacre for whatever reason and I think that result flattered Sprinter Sacre somewhat. After that first fence blunder he looked outpaced throughout and lets not forget that Peddlers Cross threw the kitchen sink at Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle getting closer to the Champion Hurdler than most have ever done so. He's got the record around Cheltenham as does Al Ferof and with Sprinter Sacre as short as 2/1 at the moment there is no value at all not in a race of this quality. He didn't even get up the hill at last year's festival. I'll be more intrested in Sprinter Sacre after the Game Spirit... Cue Card is a good horse, And is in danger of being forgotton. Menorah the same who if the Hobb's team can get his jumping together will go well. Its a big ask in this company but he's a good horse... My value bets upto now are Blackstairmountain who I am willing to put a line through his last run, He didn't act on that tacky ground hes certainly not that bad. And Sanctuaire after today's race, May not have beat much but it was very nice to watch and he was clearly enjoying himself. He'll more than likely go to Aintree instead of Cheltenham though. I think Nicholls is putting all his hopes in Al Ferof...
Cue Card is a lovely horse with a nice engine. The concern for though is that connections seem satisfied with his jumping. The Tizzards are so half-soaked it is ridiculous. He needs more schooling because he looks awkward, and has unseated at Cheltenham once already this season. A proper clean round of jumping and an agressive ride from the front would stand him in seriously good stead to make the frame. Sprinter Sacre is a different league to this fella though, has the same engine but jumps like a machine. Peddlers Cross loves the Cheltenham hill and Al Ferof too, so if they can jump well they have to go close. I am almost 99% certain that the winner will come from one of the front 3 in the market (barring any errors) -SS,PC, and AF. Menorah has a terrific engine but simply cannot keep jumping like this. I'd prefer a more agressive Johnson ride where the horse knows it expects a good stride to jump the fence, as opposed to the inconsistent, non-rhythmic jumping that he seems to get from the horse so far.
