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The Death of the Grand National

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by NassauBoard, Apr 14, 2024.

  1. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Background

    As a child who grew up watching Mr Frisk, Miinehomma through to Red Marauder, I was in awe of the big race, the bravery, the intensity of the race and the glory of the winners. Then as an adult I have had a love hate relationship with the big race, through the years of Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter, to the sad demise of Synchronised and Hill Sixteen last year.

    It has always been a drama, it has always lived in the memory, be it for the glory, the farce (the race that never was) or for the sadness.

    This all changed, I now longer can give you the names of the last five winners of the Grand National, Tiger Roll, Corach Rambler, I Am Maximus... and a couple of others. I can remember the races even less, and yesterday this really struck home.

    Two from home

    It was at the second last fence, I was sat with my son watching the race and I said the immortal line, "the chap in the red, he isn't even a jockey, and he might go and win the national!!"

    Now, the chap in question is David Maxwell, and lets face it, he isn't a jockey. Yet over the Grand National fences he looked completely at home on a horse that has been described as tricky. So for him to be swinging away on the bridle after two circuits of the historic course, says a good deal.

    He wasn't the only one though, we had a dozen or so horses in a pack coming to the last two fences. Unheard of? Pretty much.

    The race this year had no test for horse nor jockey, we had a reduced field size of 32 (maximum 34) and fences that pale in comparison to their former selves. They have moved the first fence closer, they have modified the modified and now the Grand National is no longer grand... and to be honest, I am not sure if its still a steeplechase!!

    The race was run like a handicap hurdle over fixed brush, and to be honest, unless we get heavy ground, the Grand National is likely to be a mundane event when compared to the past.

    Safety

    As mentioned previously, I have a love hate relationship with the race, the deaths of horses like Synchronised has done that to me. I hated seeing so much carnage, but I also respect what the race was, a true challenge. It was special, because it was a one off.

    Racing has had to change, a broad church has said that the risks of the race are unacceptable, and that safety should be the paramount goal for the organisers. It is hard for me to argue against this, but its also a very hard line to walk for the course, how safe is safe enough? How much change can the race take?

    I think we have seen too much change for the grand old race, and this seasons renewal has shown this. Many will be cheering a winning favourite, many will be collecting, but has the old race been forever lost?

    So what?

    If the race is becoming, as I feel, a predictable event, does this mean that we are going to see support fall for the race? Are the public still going to turn up in their masses for a party with a few races thrown in? Is it still going to make news headlines? Is it going to turn into the NH Chase?

    For me, the race is dieing, and that perhaps isn't a bad thing for the sport. It is not as compelling as the round and round in circles Cross Country at Cheltenham, let alone the banks races in Ireland or the great European races like the Velka.

    It is just another handicap (for now), on another Saturday.

    I find that very sad.
     
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  2. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I would agree with most of your points Nass and also throw in that the nature of the field has not only changed in size but also in quality. This is a key point in my opinion because the very thing that ITV pundits were celebrating (more higher rated runners) is, IMHO, actually detrimental to the race. The 1-2-3-4 of I Am Maximus, Delta Work, Minella Indo and Galvin belong in a completely different sphere and for me that type of horse is taking away the chance of smaller operators and, ultimately, the romance of the race.

    If we look back at the field of 2012 which you refer to with the sad passing of Synchronised, there were 40 runners rated from 161 (Synchronised) down to 132 (Neptune Equester) and only the bottom weight was out of the handicap by 5lbs - a ratings spread of 29lbs. Yesterday's race had Noble Yeats carrying top weight off 165 and Kitty's Light down the bottom off 146 - so a ratings spread of only 19lbs. The handicap is becoming more and more compressed and is moving upwards but do we really need 13 runners rated 155+ like in yesterday's race? It takes an exceptional horse to win a National off that level as the ratings of recent winners shows:

    2024 I Am Maximus 159
    2023 Corach Rambler 146
    2022 Noble Yeats 147
    2021 Minella Times 146
    2020 -----
    2019 Tiger Roll 159
    2018 Tiger Roll 150
    2017 One For Arthur 148
    2016 Rule The World 148
    2015 Many Clouds 160
    2014 Pineau De Re 143
    2013 Aororas Encore 137
    2012 Neptune Collonges 157

    I don't know what the answer is but it seems powerful operations are going into the race mob-handed with some of their highest rated horses and that seems to me to be minimising the chances of a "rags to riches" story.
    It will be very interesting to see what the handicapper does with I Am Maximus. After winning the Irish National he was put up from 149 to 158 but was then left at that level until being nudged up a pound for yesterday's race.
     
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  3. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Here is a first. I agree with Nass.
    Not a single faller except for a loose horse that gave the Animal Welfare brigade something to scream about. That fact alone tells you that is has been watered down to a point where this unique course and test has become irrelevant.
    This total cave in is not good for the race or NH racing in general and this is mostly to appease vegans who want horse racing , or horse abuse as they call it, abolished entirely. At least on this one Saturday in April they are blocking up the roads around Westminster or the M25.
    This will not stop here. National Hunt racing will be the first to go followed by Greyhound racing and eventually flat racing.
    The sad thing is that we are all to blame for being so weak and politically correct and too scared to actually stand up and push back.

    NH racing is dying a slow and pitiful death along with womens athletics etc. and this iconic race is a prime example.
     
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  4. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    It is losing the appeal to the traditionalist alright, but the general public don't even know what has gone on regarding the watering down of it all and they will still show an interest in it and bet away there few euros into the millions which means the race will go on relatively unscathed, as the bookies are still lining their pockets.

    I said this on here a year or two ago, maybe more, but once you give in to make one change then that's the end of it all. It opens up the potential for endless change and the antagonists know that once they got the powers that be to budge once they can do it again and again. It would need a very strong team to come back to the table and suggest a reimagining of the race the way it should be run. Modern day societal pressures will see that never happens.

    I think Oddy illustrated the biggest point, as Nass and Stick also alluded to - it has entirely buried the hope of the unfancied outsider winning it. The dream of winning the race with something lower down the handicap has evaporated and the big trainers can target their best horses knowing they most likely will be only hacking around a run of the mill course. You're going to start seeing the same trend of the main market leaders winning and their prices contracting to scarcely believable odds that would be unheard of in times gone by. We will soon be seeing 3/1 faves with another 4 or 5 under 10/1 - just another handicap or graded race we see 50 times during the year already, nothing new.

    The whole romance of the race was that anything could happen during it, Jimmy with his 5 pound on the 66/1 shot had the potential to beat Mary with her 2 pound each way on the 8/1 favourite. I'm not sure if the general public will cotton on to it or keep throwing the money away at the longer odds no hopers but the sooner they wake up and join in the protest that this isn't the same race it was, then nothing will ever change.

    A real shame.
     
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  5. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    We've all seen the 1973 Grand National a million times but you really see how different the fences were in those days in this video - especially from the camera on the landing side of Bechers.

     
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  6. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I'm showing my age here but I used to love the rickety old Grand National rollercoaster at Blackpool Pleasure Beach :emoticon-0152-heart a really unique ride with the two tracks and heading to each fence neck and neck with the rival car

     
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  7. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    You don't get Grand National horses anymore you get horses that can jump the National fences.

    The first National I watched was Nicolaus Silver beating the previous year's winner Merryman. I was captured. I first backed a winner when Anglo won. I can't think why. The next year I was certain Red Alligator would win. It didn't. The greatest race was 1973, 3rd was the joint topweight (with Crisp) L'Escargot. He was beaten out of sight yet he had won two Gold Cups. I watched yesterday's race but not with great interest. Yes a good race but not a Grand National.

    They interviewed the Clerk of The Course. She said the going was thankfully going to be on the soft side of good to soft. Yet the fastest National was run on Good to Firm and although there were sadly two fatalities (one of them not due to a fall) it was the race I remember that had the fewest fallers.

    Agree with all said here.
     
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  8. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    You don’t even get horses that jump the national fences, you get any horse who jumps a hurdle or a fence.

    There is no way I Am Maximus would have won around the previous incarnation of the course. He’d have been odds against to get around.
     
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  9. Ardent1965

    Ardent1965 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with most of the sentiments...there is risk in all sports.....25% of all rugby players are injured in a season....heading the ball in football is linked to brain injury....American football is carnage...serious injury in hockey is common place.....boxing well enough said... F1 fatalities....but we turn up in our 100s of thousands.. millions around the globe to cheer on our teams and favs...its sport there is a risk....there is a risk crossing the road in the morning....there is a risk putting a horse out to grass....there is a risk letting your dog of the lead in the park...etc etc

    We've gone too far to appease the baying mob...
     
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  10. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Is this a first? We all agree
     
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  11. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    I don’t think it’s the death of the GN at all. Maybe it is for us folk who love their racing and appreciate a horse that can properly jump, but the general public would have loved that race. Racing authorities view this race as a window into their world for the casual race watcher. So no casualties and a dozen or so horses in with a chance 2 out will be seen as a massive success. It’s now just a very different race with the winner now being touted as a Gold Cup prospect! When was a GN success seen as a route to GC win? To be honest i’m not that bothered about it. I’m sure I’ll continue to have a little bet in it but there’s plenty of other races that appeal to me more.
     
    #11
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2024
  12. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    The trouble is Chan that this is just the beginning. It starts with making it safer then eventually you take away the obstacles and finally you stop them racing completely. The first backwards step that has already been made is the beginning of the end. Mostly caused by main stream media giving these protestors a voice.
    It’s not just racing, it’s everywhere. Nobody willing to challenge these people who love to tell you that they are representing the general public with their green hair and bones through their noses. The battle has already been lost because everyone has been too afraid to stand up against them.
     
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  13. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Death and lies at the Grand National as Aintree claim no horse fell yesterday. The Grand National is scrambling for a PR win as the public wakes up to the cruelty of racing horses for profit. Desperate to avoid responsibility for the two deaths on Friday and a brutal fall yesterday, it is now rewriting history. A series of headlines today quote Aintree racecourse as saying no horses fell in the main race yesterday. In fact, 11 horses "pulled up" or unseated riders in the chaos of the race, risking serious accidents. Last year's "winner" Corach Rambler was among them, throwing off his rider before desperately jumping the next fence and suffering a bad fall in his panic. Let's not forget the realities of racing, no matter what this failing industry wants us to believe.
     
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  14. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Scottish National entries ratings range from 158 (Stay Away Fay) right down to 119 (The Gradual Slope). Not sure whether Stay Away Fay will run but if he doesn't and also assuming Mr Incredible and Elvis Mail will be scratched after very recent runs, then we could have Beauport carrying top weight off 145, bringing all the rest into the handicap proper. Feels more like a National field than all these 155+ rated animals.
     
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  15. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    #15
  16. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    The link didn't work for me but I assume this is viewing figures? I find that a fascinating statistic and I have no idea how it is calculated (can't just be "representative polls" in this day and age surely?)

    The variability in the BBC years is interesting - I wonder if there is a correlation with Easter school holidays?

    I guess there is a typo and that the 6.1m at the top of the list is 2024 rather than 2022?

    It would be very interesting to see how the viewing figures for the Derby have fared over the same period. I think this is a general horse racing popularity issue rather than specific to the Grand National - but I could, of course, be wrong.

    EDIT: Just googled Epsom Derby viewing figures, they pale into comparison to the National. Hovering around the 1 million mark for years now as far as I can see
     
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    Last edited: Apr 15, 2024
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  17. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Ob-viously
     
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  18. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    The figures won't include the people watching via the illegal "dodgy box", which I would think is rather very high nowadays. Could explain partly a drop in those numbers. Also the amount of younger people who would watch via mobile phone betting apps.
     
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  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Yes. I often wonder what they are actually counting
     
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  20. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Nass is so right.
    The Grand National is now just a by product of our namby pamby society.
    Sadly, the thing it has lost most of all is its magic….
    the fairy tale of Foinavon; the sadness of Crisp; the brilliantly ridden Gay Trip.
    Just memories. But no more. Gone “like tears in the rain.”
     
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