S.A.F.C. - the future

[Drumburgh1]

Always thought Covid would cause more issues as I posted the other week- due to the fact that the future revenue streams are uncertain and that no one knows how the aftermath of Covid is going to play out.

There are three income scenarios for matchday revenue.

1. Current situation - limited income from streaming passes.
2. Social distanced attendances - season ticket money only - uncertainty when this may start and impact of local lockdowns.
3. Full capacity - start date ? Will supporters want to come back ? Corporate Hospitality demand ?

Then we have the nightmare for us all a second wave and full lockdown.

Not easy to conclude multi-million pound deals in this time.

 

[BigPete]

Always thought Covid would cause more issues as I posted the other week- due to the fact that the future revenue streams are uncertain and that no one knows how the aftermath of Covid is going to play out.

There are three income scenarios for matchday revenue.

1. Current situation - limited income from streaming passes.
2. Social distanced attendances - season ticket money only - uncertainty when this may start and impact of local lockdowns.
3. Full capacity - start date ? Will supporters want to come back ? Corporate Hospitality demand ?

Then we have the nightmare for us all a second wave and full lockdown.

Not easy to conclude multi-million pound deals in this time.

I'm surprised it's taken this long with players going for more than the value of our club.

The money potential is there so I'm hoping it's just the yanks playing hardball and just waiting it out.

Covid hopefully has SD over a barrel as cant afford to sustain the losses on top of FFP loan.

 

[Magnus]

So either Donald has completely give up and taken what he's been offered or is he keeping some shares to sweeten the deal?

For Donald shares it works out at about 27m, you then need to factor in the loan, and what ever else brings it down to under 20m

 

[Royaldragon]

Always thought Covid would cause more issues as I posted the other week- due to the fact that the future revenue streams are uncertain and that no one knows how the aftermath of Covid is going to play out.

There are three income scenarios for matchday revenue.


Then we have the nightmare for us all a second wave and full lockdown.

Not easy to conclude multi-million pound deals in this time.

It's definitely a difficult situation, but a second wave will hit us, Melbourne is currently having a third wave, but we won't have a full lockdown like earlier in the year, local lockdowns yes, but not a nationwide one. At least I hope not as we will be in a possible worldwide depression scenario.

 

[Prehab26]

For Donald shares it works out at about 27m, you then need to factor in the loan, and what ever else brings it down to under 20m

I would be very surprised if this doesn't go through this time. Too much money and time has gone into it. I think I mentioned it to a person who contacted you, if it's not done by end of September it won't happen. Then, I will be massively worried. Donald doesnt have the pockets to keep this club functioning.

 

[RIC]

I would be very surprised if this doesn't go through this time. Too much money and time has gone into it. I think I mentioned it to a person who contacted you, if it's not done by end of September it won't happen. Then, I will be massively worried. Donald doesnt have the pockets to keep this club functioning.

So Donald knows the game is up, and must sell.

Therefore what would stop the deal by end Sept if not the chancer?

 

[Prehab26]

So Donald knows the game is up, and must sell.

Therefore what would stop the deal by end Sept if not the chancer?

Guess it could potentially be a range of things. The covid forecasting etc. But imagine that's what they have been discussing. Guessing here but think they will be trying to drive the price down due to it and that's been the sticking point.

 

[Smug in Boots]

Ha. Cheers pal. RTG is still a decent place for the best part but last night tipped me over the edge. Vauxie back from a ban, allowed to stir up the pot and spoil threads, then goes and complains about everyone. Mods then issuing warnings and deleted, perfectly acceptable posts. That's not on.

I did have a crack with Pancho who was fine and it wasn't him who was deleting and dishing out warnings. Wouldn't say who though.

End of the day though, it's very easy to see what the issues are over there and who the main protagonists are. Not getting blamed or **** for them. Just not happening.

Despite being on there more than any other Mod he'll never admit it was him ...

... sadly, imo, he's a coward.

He came on here, as Hotlips, threatening me with legal action on behalf of the club.

Not right in the head that bloke.

 

[Wackyjacky]

For Donald shares it works out at about 27m, you then need to factor in the loan, and what ever else brings it down to under 20m

By my crude workings out, if the price is £37m then Donalds share (74%) would be worth £27.4m and his share of the Madrox loan of £9m would be £6.6m to come off that leaving a rough figure of £20.7m. If he has paid back some of the loan then that would increase by whatever amount he'd paid back. So a figure of the early 20 millions would be a figure for Donald's portion only, then Methven and Sartori's shares if they sell up too.

 

[RIC]

Guess it could potentially be a range of things. The covid forecasting etc. But imagine that's what they have been discussing. Guessing here but think they will be trying to drive the price down due to it and that's been the sticking point.

So if that was the case, and SD wouldn't drop the price, SD would continue to take the covid hit which would eventually drain him.

 

[Prehab26]

So if that was the case, and SD wouldn't drop the price, SD would continue to take the covid hit which would eventually drain him.

It would. That's why I believe it's not made up. Other aspects too that I carnt disclose. It's simple really. Donald can not keep us going in the medium term. I think it will be posturing on both sides and the price, take it leave it, is just got air. Be sliding up and down depending on negotiations.

 

[Prehab26]

Despite being on there more than any other Mod he'll never admit it was him ...

... sadly, imo, he's a coward.

He came on here, as Hotlips, threatening me with legal action on behalf of the club.

Not right in the head that bloke.

That's strange like.

 

[Smug in Boots]

That's strange like.

I still have the pms ...

... he threatened me with legal action if I posted them.

I'll hoy them up later

 

[Drumburgh1]

Guess it could potentially be a range of things. The covid forecasting etc. But imagine that's what they have been discussing. Guessing here but think they will be trying to drive the price down due to it and that's been the sticking point.

Same with any deal - was offered a business last week which was for sale last year - at a 10% discount and payment terms spread over 3 years instead of 50% day 1 and 50% a year later simply due to uncertainties relating to Covid.

 

[Bob Cheval]

There's definitely conflicting info coming out of the club. I'd heard almost word for word what Chris Weatherspoon had heard, and from a very good source that absolutely wouldn't be making it up. But on the other hand I know how Prehab gets his info and know he will be 100% passing on what he's heard in good faith as well. I wasn't quite sure what was right and what wasn't, but when Barnes gave his update yesterday it was almost identical to what prehab had told me away from the board a few days ago, so I'm leaning towards that being the truth (and crossing everything that it is!)

When I was told things were pretty much no further forward I was told I could pass it on as long as it was general enough not to give the source away. So to expand on that (and still keep it general enough I think) I was basically told that a certain shareholder was the one passing the "positive" stories around. Basically this was to try and pressurise Donald into lowering his asking price because it is putting people off and is seen as unrealistic. Was told there is interest (from the same people who have been interested for ages) but they've got their valuation and Donald has his. So one who wants to sell puts out positive stuff knowing it'll ramp the pressure up on Donald as people will be even more angry if another season starts and he's still there.

If the person I've been told was putting positive stories out was also Prehab's source I'd be anxious but I'm certain he isn't. I think everyone has been passing on what they've heard in good faith but there are some games being played somewhere along the lines by the people involved. Like I say though, I'm starting to lean back towards thinking Prehab's sources will be accurate because he's hearing the same as Barnes so I'm hoping what I and Chris Weatherspoon heard was the inaccurate side of events. At least we seem to be in the end game as it was, if something is going to happen it'll likely be in the next few weeks so hopefully we'll all get some clarity soon.

Are you suggesting it is CM putting out the positive stories?

 

[Magnus]

I would be very surprised if this doesn't go through this time. Too much money and time has gone into it. I think I mentioned it to a person who contacted you, if it's not done by end of September it won't happen. Then, I will be massively worried. Donald doesnt have the pockets to keep this club functioning.

Agree mate I got told it’s all systems go to get this done in 3 weeks

 

[Prehab26]

Same with any deal - was offered a business last week which was for sale last year - at a 10% discount and payment terms spread over 3 years instead of 50% day 1 and 50% a year later simply due to uncertainties relating to Covid.

Exactly. Must be canny mental negotiations. Bet the lawyers are having the time of their lives.

 

[Smug in Boots]

I've been sent half a dozen plausible stories which all have their merits.

I still have to believe its FPP because of the info I've had. In addition there's the due diligence issue. People trip that out like it's a minor formality but it's a serious step that can cost half a million, perhaps double that. Imagine being Storey or Gray having to stump that up knowing it may reveal the plan is a non-starter.

 

[Prehab26]

Agree mate I got told it’s all systems go to get this done in 3 weeks

Yip

 

[Guinness Guzzler]

Are you suggesting it is CM putting out the positive stories?

Haven't heard a name but the suggestion was strongly that it was a shareholder, or at least someone at the club with a vested interest in it going through. Methven would make sense, either he might want it to go through because he's staying and thinks his 6% will be worth more with others running it, or maybe he's going and he wants his 6% before the value drops any further. Certainly the suggestion was that Donald was stubbornly wanting his asking price and that it was unrealistic