S.A.F.C. - the future

Always thought Covid would cause more issues as I posted the other week- due to the fact that the future revenue streams are uncertain and that no one knows how the aftermath of Covid is going to play out.

There are three income scenarios for matchday revenue.

1. Current situation - limited income from streaming passes.
2. Social distanced attendances - season ticket money only - uncertainty when this may start and impact of local lockdowns.
3. Full capacity - start date ? Will supporters want to come back ? Corporate Hospitality demand ?

Then we have the nightmare for us all a second wave and full lockdown.

Not easy to conclude multi-million pound deals in this time.

 

I'm surprised it's taken this long with players going for more than the value of our club.

The money potential is there so I'm hoping it's just the yanks playing hardball and just waiting it out.

Covid hopefully has SD over a barrel as cant afford to sustain the losses on top of FFP loan.

 

For Donald shares it works out at about 27m, you then need to factor in the loan, and what ever else brings it down to under 20m

 

It's definitely a difficult situation, but a second wave will hit us, Melbourne is currently having a third wave, but we won't have a full lockdown like earlier in the year, local lockdowns yes, but not a nationwide one. At least I hope not as we will be in a possible worldwide depression scenario.

 

I would be very surprised if this doesn't go through this time. Too much money and time has gone into it. I think I mentioned it to a person who contacted you, if it's not done by end of September it won't happen. Then, I will be massively worried. Donald doesnt have the pockets to keep this club functioning.

 

So Donald knows the game is up, and must sell.

Therefore what would stop the deal by end Sept if not the chancer?

 

Guess it could potentially be a range of things. The covid forecasting etc. But imagine that's what they have been discussing. Guessing here but think they will be trying to drive the price down due to it and that's been the sticking point.

 

Despite being on there more than any other Mod he'll never admit it was him ...

... sadly, imo, he's a coward.

He came on here, as Hotlips, threatening me with legal action on behalf of the club.

Not right in the head that bloke.

 

By my crude workings out, if the price is £37m then Donalds share (74%) would be worth £27.4m and his share of the Madrox loan of £9m would be £6.6m to come off that leaving a rough figure of £20.7m. If he has paid back some of the loan then that would increase by whatever amount he'd paid back. So a figure of the early 20 millions would be a figure for Donald's portion only, then Methven and Sartori's shares if they sell up too.

 

So if that was the case, and SD wouldn't drop the price, SD would continue to take the covid hit which would eventually drain him.

 

It would. That's why I believe it's not made up. Other aspects too that I carnt disclose. It's simple really. Donald can not keep us going in the medium term. I think it will be posturing on both sides and the price, take it leave it, is just got air. Be sliding up and down depending on negotiations.

 

That's strange like.

 

I still have the pms ...

... he threatened me with legal action if I posted them.

I'll hoy them up later

 

Same with any deal - was offered a business last week which was for sale last year - at a 10% discount and payment terms spread over 3 years instead of 50% day 1 and 50% a year later simply due to uncertainties relating to Covid.

 

Are you suggesting it is CM putting out the positive stories?

 

Agree mate I got told it’s all systems go to get this done in 3 weeks

 

Exactly. Must be canny mental negotiations. Bet the lawyers are having the time of their lives.

 

I've been sent half a dozen plausible stories which all have their merits.

I still have to believe its FPP because of the info I've had. In addition there's the due diligence issue. People trip that out like it's a minor formality but it's a serious step that can cost half a million, perhaps double that. Imagine being Storey or Gray having to stump that up knowing it may reveal the plan is a non-starter.

 

Yip

 

Haven't heard a name but the suggestion was strongly that it was a shareholder, or at least someone at the club with a vested interest in it going through. Methven would make sense, either he might want it to go through because he's staying and thinks his 6% will be worth more with others running it, or maybe he's going and he wants his 6% before the value drops any further. Certainly the suggestion was that Donald was stubbornly wanting his asking price and that it was unrealistic