Having had the bulk of a drive up from the south coast to mull this over, I can safely say that I am nervous but genuinely excited to face this group. Last season's draw had mixed emotions as our group lacked the spectacle that we waited 5 seasons to witness, but at the same time most if not all of us were predicting that we would qualify out of it as group leaders. And no, no-one foresaw just how good Monaco would be but I would say that our 2 games against Leverkusen were what cost us the most. Two terrible performances against a bang-average side and we failed to score against them in 180 minutes of football. I think that there were 4 main factors that conspired against us last season (in no particular order):
1. Wembley
2. Lack of squad depth
3. Complacency
4. Lack of experience
Problem 1 is the only problem we don't have a solution for. The stadium situation really is a 'grin and bear it' until next season.
Problem 2 has been within our powers to fix since the beginning of June. As usual, however, we apparently only woke up to this fact last week. Gazzanigga, Foyth and Sancho are nice options, but none of them will do anything to help our CL campaign. Nor for that matter will Barkley as by the time he is back to full fitness we could be all but out of the tournament anyway. Which leaves Sanchez and Aurier from our potential transfer targets. Simply not enough as far as I'm concerned.
Problem 3 led to a terrible first game against Monaco and 2 more against Leverkusen. We were ****e out in Moscow too. Watching us play, it seemed that the players looked at our group and thought 'piss easy...this'll be just like a Europa League campaign. We can just turn up and win'. We saw this complacency again in the away tie versus Gent and it left us a molehill to climb that Alli quickly made a mountain of. Our group this year will surely ensure zero complacency?
Problem 4 remains a problem and will do so for the foreseeable future. We don't have the resources to sign players in their peak with vast CL experience. Which is why, again, Aurier makes more sense on many levels than Pereira or Toljan. The only solution to inexperience is gaining experience, and in that regard I don't think it gets much better than the best team on the planet in your group.
As for Dortmund. Yes, they are still a formidable team with more than enough to hurt us. But they are decidedly worse than 2 years ago whilst we are decidedly better. Hummels, Mickey Tarzan, Gundogan were all key players. So is Dembele and he looks certain to leave this summer. We need to be at our absolute best to beat them, but a draw away and home win could be done and should be enough to see us through.
Real away is the only tie I can see us being utterly turned over. Both by the ref and by their quality.
To dare is to do.
