The problem was CH, she was never really at backable odds then. There was always the risk that, at 17, we may have seen the best of her with her first song and/or nerves could have got to her in the later stages, and/or, given the format, she could have had a couple of bad weeks to shake her confidence. There was a hint of that as she drifted out to 3s at one point. With hindsight, should have lumped on then. I can't be backing a short priced fav in these comps as there is usually someone who improves leaps and bounds. The improvers have been Lauren and Che but they seem to have reached their potential now, whereas Louisa is just showing enough to keep her nose in front and is now drawing away; a bit like Faugheen last year.
I knew this year would be difficult as soon as I heard them all at the start but I have made some terrible betting decisions.
I took the 33s on Mason when he was brought back in with a view to laying him off but when he was as low as 12/1 I could have laid him off at 20s (max on offer) but didn't. There is no point in the free bet and very little profit to be made
I laid Reggie at 66/1
My only (half) sensible bet was taking 12's for 4th Impact at the start and laying them off at 7.8/1 giving free bet at 4.2/1.
The one thing that has been driven home to me is:
Don't lay unless you think:
- they have no chance at all
- the price is far too short and you confidently expect to get on at a bigger price for a free bet
Don't back to lay unless they have a good chance of winning and the odds are too high. If they have no chance of winning but the price appears too high, don't bother. There is no point in the free bet and there is very little profit to be made
. It's beginning to look a 1 horse race
