X Factor 2015

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Well done Bupsi. Now 66/1 across the board so I'll lay her of for 1.5 points (ie 0.5 points profit)
 
As they go into the final

4th Power 12/1 - 10 points (current price - Best 11/2, lowest 9/2)
Kiera Weathers 6/1- 10 points (current price - Best 14/1, lowest 7/1)
Chloe Paige 20/1- 2 points - OUT
Bupsi 100/1 - 1 point - Layed off for 1.5 at 66/1
Mason Noise 33/1 - 10 points (current price - Best 20/1, lowest 12/1)
 
I never back the fav but I'm now wishing I had taken the 3/1 on offer for her CH.

My main choice 4th Power is on the drift and I'm not confident at all. My second choice didn't do well tonight and was lucky to get through (obviously based on previous performances). She is also on the drift. I'm banking on Mason Noise shortening up further to lay him off. Others have performed out of their skin at the houses and have deservedly gone through and shortened. It's as open as I have ever seen it now and I think I may have to wait for the right time (if there is one) to lay off to make a small profit/minimise the potential loss. It just takes a couple of good/bad performances now to turn things upside down so I'll take the risk and wait until I've heard them next week.
 
My worry is that the best performer doesn't always win, fleur last year for example
I said to the mrs first time I heard Louisa that she was this years winner without knowing the odds but I'm not sure I want to get involved now at 9/4
 
It is very open as some have upped their game and some seem to have shown their best early on. The live performances will bring out the best from some and, potentially, ruin others. From my daughter's experience, live performances brings out more as the audience feedback produces adrenaline. Conversely it could frighten some but I expect all these have performed live for a while so I expect better from everyone next week.

I'll give them credit though, in the boys and girls categories any of them could have gone through in most years. The difficulty is that there isn't one that stands out way above the others. That's why I want to cash out on my bets where possible to avoid the risk of losing the lot.
 
Dan Starkey said:
Lauren Murray used to sing in my local pub. If she gets to the live shows I think the best bet is that at least 4 of the regulars will claim to have bedded her. I didn't - we stuck to some light petting <whistle>
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She made it Dan. Didn't think she would but, based on that last performance, she fully deserves it
 
Ron said:
Well done Bupsi. Now 66/1 across the board so I'll lay her of for 1.5 points (ie 0.5 points profit)
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Just as well. Out to 150/1 now. I'd be happy to lay 500/1 but there wouldn't be takers even at those odds <laugh>
 
Haven't seen it yet CH. Was out partying until 5am. My head hurts so will watch it later.
 
Still haven't felt up to watching it but, judging by the odds, she must have been good and the rest must have been average at best. Bugger, I nearly took the 2/1 on offer beforehand. Now best priced 13/8. Still tempted, as it may be my only option left to make a profit, but will wait until I've listened.
 
Just watched Saturday's. Haven't seen Sunday's and forgot to record it so hopefully it will be re-shown.

Based on Saturday, I can forget Keira; very disappointed as she hasn't improved at all. Disappointed with my group. I'll have to have a look at the odds to see if I have any chance of recovering from what I can only describe dismal effort this year.
 
Odds as at 11.40 (French time)
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Right. Having looked at these odds I can assume that Bupsi has gone out (no surprise there) and that Alien Uncovered have gone out. Based on Saturday's performance, that is madness. I'm finding it easier now to say who won't win so I'm going to risk laying those I think can't win, taking the longest odds I can find above (ie mainly, if not totally, Betfair).

I'll lay
100 Che Chesterman at 6/1
10 4th Impact at 39/5 (gives me a free bet)
100 Anton at 64/5
50 Seann at 71/5
100 Max at 29/1
100 Keira at 61/1
100 Reggie at 61/1
 
If my calcs are correct these are the amounts I stand to win/lose for each possible winner

Louisa 528.5
Che -171.5
4th Impact 570.5
Lauren 528.5
Anton -851.5
Seann -231.5
Monica 528.5
Mason 868.5
Max -2471.5
Keira -5601.5
Reggie -5671.5

I will do a few more bets/lays later to balance things out a bit but, if Max, Keira or Reggie win, I'm sunk.
 
Bit worried about Che after that. Just went to take the 11/2 to cover myself and it's all gone while I'm deciding the stake <doh>
 
So now my book of bets looks like this:
Louisa 448.5
Che 168.5
4th Impact 490.5
Lauren 448.5
Anton -931.5
Seann -311.5
Monica 448.5
Mason 788.5
Max -2551.5
Keira -5681.5
Reggie -5751.5
 
Seann is out to 14/1 with B365 so a saver of 20 on him at 14/1
 
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