Walter Out

[SydneyTiger14]

Guess I'll bin off footystats and bookmark Fbref then. **** knows how it can give different results, considering the data supposedly comes straight from Opta.

Someone suggested that one was xG and one was something else so they might both be right.

 

[SydneyTiger14]

Exactly. Once in a blue moon. And it sticks in the memory and will be commented on for years to come, because it's so exceptional.

-> A shot on target that had literally next to no chance of going in? Do they exist?
Yes, of course they do. Note the wording 'next to no chance'. Effectively back passes. Last nights game was a good example had you watched it.

And the xG on the Sunderland goal would have been next to nothing, reflecting just how exceptional it was.

 

[Gone For A Walk]

You quoted possession and stats and asked people to guess the score and then said people would guess 3-1 for a game where one side had more than double the shots. I found it a strange progression which you were trying to use to undermine a stat you didn't even quote. As I said, if you actually had quoted it it would have shown you that the actual score and the expected score weren't worlds apart.

I'm talking about possession, shots and XG's.
The point is, they really don't matter.
There's only one stat that matters.
Surely that isn't difficult to understand.
I'll give up. Waste of my day arguing something that should be so obvious.

 

[Amin Arrears]

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Fair enough, can’t sack him on his birthday.

Happy Birthday Tim.

I hope you get a good performance and result for your birthday, sincerely.

 

[HCAFCHangout]

The only thing that counts is shots that go in. Man City had 70% possession the other night, more shots, more shots on target, more xGs but lost 4-1. Not the only ones with similar stats.

Sporting had more xG but I would expect that with the penalties they had

FWIW, xG is a great stat at telling a story of a season or a long period of games. In individual games it can be skewed due to anomalies

 

[SydneyTiger14]

I'm talking about possession, shots and XG's.
The point is, they really don't matter.
There's only one stat that matters.
Surely that isn't difficult to understand.
I'll give up. Waste of my day arguing something that should be so obvious.

But you didn't quote xG, you quoted possession and shots. One of which suggested an absolute battering, then tried to suggest the stats you quoted didn't suggest a battering, I guess because possession was pretty close to 50/50. All I said was it was weird stats to pick out and a weird game to try to prove your point. There's plenty of games where xG doesn't reflect the final score you could have picked and you picked one where one side had over 5 xG.

 

[HCAFCHangout]

I'm talking about possession, shots and XG's.
The point is, they really don't matter.
There's only one stat that matters.
Surely that isn't difficult to understand.
I'll give up. Waste of my day arguing something that should be so obvious.

You’re not wrong that there is only one stat that matters and that’s the scoreline.

Think what some of us are hoping is that a lot of the underlying stats indicate we aren’t as bad as the league table shows right now and that eventually the chances we create should start going in. We’ve made that assertion off the eye test as well as most on here have said that the past 3 games there’s every chance we could’ve been 3-0 up before the opposition have scored especially Oxford and Pompey. The stats also back this up.

 

[SydneyTiger14]

Sporting had more xG but I would expect that with the penalties they had

FWIW, xG is a great stat at telling a story of a season or a long period of games. In individual games it can be skewed due to anomalies

Absolutely agree. There's a heap of games where sides win with much less xG, or with a heavily weighted xG against the actual score, so it was funny that GFAW picked a game that actually really closely aligned between xG and the result to try to tell people that xG doesn't tell the true story.

 

[HCAFCHangout]

Absolutely agree. There's a heap of games where sides win with much less xG, or with a heavily weighted xG against the actual score, so it was funny that GFAW picked a game that actually really closely aligned between xG and the result to try to tell people that xG doesn't tell the true story.

The major worry is. Birmingham last year should’ve by all accounts been 11th based off xG but got relegated. There are weird outliers and underperformers but a look at last years xG table shows most teams finish where they should’ve

We ranked 9th and finished 7th for example

 

[Chazz Rheinhold]

Fair enough, can’t sack him on his birthday.

Happy Birthday Tim.

I hope you get a good performance and result for your birthday, sincerely.

In a hughie green voice??

 

[Howdentiger2]

Are people really still arguing about XG,it's a pointless statistic thats not really used for anyone actually inside clubs but just gives people like SKY and Syd things to talk about

 

[SydneyTiger14]

Are people really still arguing about XG,it's a pointless statistic thats not really used for anyone actually inside clubs but just gives people like SKY and Syd things to talk about

Maybe not inside clubs you're associated with but most serious clubs do look at it as an indicator. I barely ever talk about it or cite it other than to clarify for people who don't understand it what it actually is, but hey ho gotta throw a personal dig in there otherwise it's not a Howden post.

 

[HCAFCHangout]

Are people really still arguing about XG,it's a pointless statistic thats not really used for anyone actually inside clubs but just gives people like SKY and Syd things to talk about

I know you’ve got an inside track with city and the like but surely some data analysts are using it as a metric for some analysis.

I’ll agree it has it flaws though

 

[Chazz Rheinhold]

Are people really still arguing about XG,it's a pointless statistic thats not really used for anyone actually inside clubs but just gives people like SKY and Syd things to talk about

Saw a brief clip of the Gary Neville keano chat on f book
Wrighty said when he was at palace

Steve coppell whole philosophy was to feed wrighty and brighty
He’d bollck them if they crossed to someone else!!
They were also saying some teams are now dispensing with the slow slow slow build up play

 

[SydneyTiger14]

I know you’ve got an inside track with city and the like but surely some data analysts are using it as a metric for some analysis.

I’ll agree it has it flaws though

Here's an article with Tuchel citing it, also references Hassenhutel and other PL managers citing it.

https://www.skysports.com/football/...how-to-stop-individual-errors-costing-chelsea

While those managers are no longer at their clubs, I can't imagine the clubs have sacked it off as a concept.

Even Mr "Woke Nonsense" himself Dyche cited it last season by the looks of things:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesn...s-expected-goals-for-the-2324-premier-league/

But sure, no clubs look at it.

 

[bradymk2]

Xg is no more pointless than shots on target
Its just a more in depth shot analysis

No more no less

It can give a good indication of your teams ability to break a defensive line over a period of games

 

[originallambrettaman]

Are people really still arguing about XG,it's a pointless statistic thats not really used for anyone actually inside clubs but just gives people like SKY and Syd things to talk about

Personally, I find it mind-numbingly tedious and have never paid any attention to it, but I know the bookies use it to set their odds, so they clearly think it's a useful statistic.

 

[SydneyTiger14]

I know you’ve got an inside track with city and the like but surely some data analysts are using it as a metric for some analysis.

I’ll agree it has it flaws though

Every stat and every observation in isolation will have its flaws and everything within the game is only useful within the right context. But that's not to say if a stat doesn't tell the full story then it's automatically useless.

 

[HCAFCHangout]

Saw a brief clip of the Gary Neville keano chat on f book
Wrighty said when he was at palace

Steve coppella whole philosophy was to feed wrighty and brighty
He’s bollck then if they crossed to someone else!!
They were also saying some teams are now dispensing with the slow slow slow build up play

I think football will cycle back to more direct play especially in England. Given how high some teams set up their back line you’re daft not to.

 

[HCAFCHangout]

Every stat and every observation in isolation will have its flaws and everything within the game is only useful within the right context. But that's not to say if a stat doesn't tell the full story then it's automatically useless.

I could go proper in depth about xGOT but that’s probably for another time