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Who will win?..

  • Total voters
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@Donga Darko maybe if everyone didn't post half baked claims in one direction, I wouldn't look like a Russian bot by correcting those errors <laugh>

have I ever used Breitbart as a source?
 
Donga Darko said:
https://fullfact.org/
Click to expand...


Newsguard verifies the integrity of news sites on their content, whether they disclose funding and how they actually write their stories. But the news story is only the actual first step in trying to determine if something is accurate or not.

I'll check it out cheers, to date my experience with factcheck orgs is hit but with a bit of miss too
 
Tobes said:
I see Neil Hamilton has currently got the UKIP gig, took over from Catherine Tate’s Nan character
Click to expand...
It's a very well suited match. Both are now utterly irrelevant.
Why would you want to lead Farage's Cult of Personality after he's ****ed it off? Desperation, I guess.
 
The Upshot on Today’s Polls
Analysis of the day in polls, from now until Election Day.

By Nate Cohn


A snapshot of current polling averagesPolling misses are normal, and can be even bigger than they have been in recent years.
POLLING LEADER IF POLLS ARE AS WRONG AS THEY WERE IN…
2016 2012
U.S. +9 Biden +6 +12
N.H. +10 Biden +7 +14
Mich. +8 Biden +4 +13
Minn. +8 Biden +1 +10
Nev. +7 Biden +8 +9
Neb. 2* +6 Biden +8 +1
Wis. +6 Biden +2 +9
Pa. +6 Biden <1 +7
Maine 2* +4 Biden +7 +9
Ariz. +4 Biden +2 +2
Fla. +3 Biden <1 +4
Iowa +3 Biden +5 +6
N.C. +2 Biden +3 +2
Ga. <1 Biden +2 <1
Texas +2 Trump +4 +3
Ohio +2 Trump +9 +2
UPDATED OCT. 23 7:09 PM ET
Next poll releases: Texas (Next)
Exploring Electoral College outcomes
Electoral votes counting only states where a candidate leads by 3 or more:


326 Biden
125
Electoral votes if polling leads translate perfectly to results (they won’t):


357 Biden
181
Electoral votes if state polls are as wrong as they were in 2016†:


280 Biden
258

11 days until Election Day
Biden wins instant polls after final debate.
Trump faces daunting deficit in campaign’s final 11 days.

The final presidential debate was President Trump’s last, best chance to reshape the race in his favor. The post-debate instant-reaction polls suggest that he didn’t get what he needed.

Instant Poll Surveys of Who Won the Debate
CNN


53% Biden
39% Trump
Data for Progress (Dem. Pollster)


52% Biden
41% Trump
YouGov


54% Biden
35% Trump
What’s an instant poll? As we discussed after the first debate, instant-reaction or instapolls are a little quirky, but they’re useful. They usually represent only people who watched the debate, who aren’t the same as the overall electorate. The people who participate probably aren’t even very representative of people who did watch the debate, since they agreed to participate in a survey multiple times — and followed through. Pollsters try to deal with these potential biases in different ways, potentially yielding very different results. Nonetheless, a candidate who decisively wins in the instant polls usually gains in the traditional survey results that follow.

Double-digit Biden win in instant polls. This time, the instant polls had a consistent and clear story: Mr. Biden won the debate by a double-digit margin.

 
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