The key swing states will decide it, and Biden is currently ahead in the larger ones that he needs to win.
I keep reading in the right wing press that Trump has somehow turned it around, but the actual polls don’t seem to reflect that.
Hmm. They had a dude on CNN a few days ago saying that the polls in those states are only marginally different to 2016 at this stage, and bearing in mind that Trump is the incumbent and has every apparatus of the state to bend to his will (eg, look at how he's trying to manipulate the postal service), and that lead could still dwindle in the next ten weeks. Sure, if we're where we are now in mid-October, get the cigars out. Till then Trump is still managing to return the ball back into court, even though he's two yards behind the baseline running from one side to another. He's still in the game, for sure.