US Election

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Who will win?..

  • Total voters
    60
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Milk just milk said:
Yeah British conservative party looks nothing like I remember it either... Seems very "American" style party now.

I don't think Mitt will redirect the party. Yes, he's very old-style Republican but he's been painted as the bad guy by the Trump wing he would be seen as too controversial a figure by many (even if they like him).

I think someone like a Jeb Bush would have a better chance if anyone can redirect the party. Politically he isn't that far from Romney, but he hasn't been vilified as much and has a famous last name.

If Trump forms his own party it will either cannibalise the Republican party, or fail miserably and guarantee Democrat wins. The US political system can't really support 3 main parties. Structure is all wrong for that.


What worries me most is that, for all the corruption we've seen, and all the abuse of power. No one has talked about solving some of the loop holes that has been where the President can essentially take over all three branches of government.

You would think the Democrats would see this as important because... Well Trump.
You would think Republicans would see this as important because they're about to lose the Presidency.

Noone is talking about fixing the problems that we've seen. The presidency was never intended to be as powerful as it has become. It's scary that the wrong man could do so much damage. Imagine the damage Trump could have done if he were competent and not such a blowhard. Someone more charismatic than Trump could end democracy in the US following the Trump model.
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The Republicans don't care, because they don't think that the Democrats will abuse the office like they have.
They expect the usual **** that Clinton and Obama got up to, but they know there's no left-wing Trump getting in, whatever that would look like.

I think that the Democrats would like to change things, but they don't control the senate, so McConnell will kill everything they try.
How do you fix a system that's so utterly reliant on good intentions, anyway? It's ****ed.
 
Milk just milk said:
Yeah British conservative party looks nothing like I remember it either... Seems very "American" style party now.

I don't think Mitt will redirect the party. Yes, he's very old-style Republican but he's been painted as the bad guy by the Trump wing he would be seen as too controversial a figure by many (even if they like him).

I think someone like a Jeb Bush would have a better chance if anyone can redirect the party. Politically he isn't that far from Romney, but he hasn't been vilified as much and has a famous last name.

If Trump forms his own party it will either cannibalise the Republican party, or fail miserably and guarantee Democrat wins. The US political system can't really support 3 main parties. Structure is all wrong for that.


What worries me most is that, for all the corruption we've seen, and all the abuse of power. No one has talked about solving some of the loop holes that has been where the President can essentially take over all three branches of government.

You would think the Democrats would see this as important because... Well Trump.
You would think Republicans would see this as important because they're about to lose the Presidency.

Noone is talking about fixing the problems that we've seen. The presidency was never intended to be as powerful as it has become. It's scary that the wrong man could do so much damage. Imagine the damage Trump could have done if he were competent and not such a blowhard. Someone more charismatic than Trump could end democracy in the US following the Trump model.
Click to expand...


Looks from here though, as if US Constitution has shown itself to be fairly robust. Trump has thrown absolutely everything at trying to overthrow the election, but the offices of state have held pretty strong.
 
Archers Road said:
Looks from here though, as if US Constitution has shown itself to be fairly robust. Trump has thrown absolutely everything at trying to overthrow the election, but the offices of state have held pretty strong.
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I'm not just talking about the election. I'm talking about his ability to manipulate the system to manage to take over all three prongs of government (which are supposed to form checks and balances on each other), and also to avoid prosecution by regularly firing anyone who could do something to charge him. And then pardoning anyone who did anything illegal on his behalf.

Trying to overthrow democracy he is spinning his wheels getting nowhere. But 17 states have said they want to overturn the election. That's not enough to get anywhere, but that should be a huge warning to democracy.

The problem for Trump is that, even the people he has appointed as yes men, don't really like him and delight in saying no.

He has been hoping the supreme court justices he appointed would back his claims blindly, but they haven't.

Trump is failing to destroy democracy, but he IS exposing cracks. Cracks a more savvy would-be dictator could exploit.

There are areas of concern.
1) Constitutional amendment.

It takes 2/3ds of states to ratify a constitutional amendment.

The smallest 2/3 states (rural states that lean Trump) make up less than 1/3 of the population. Those pro-Trump states despite being a minority of people could pass some constitutional change to put Trump in power.

2) Military. Trump has been replacing a lot of military leaders with his own yes men... So that the military is unlikely to do something if Trump does some nasty little trick.


I wouldn't say the constitution or democracy looks bullet proof... I just would say we don't have a competent enough man trying to end it.
 
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Milk just milk said:
I'm not just talking about the election. I'm talking about his ability to manipulate the system to manage to take over all three prongs of government (which are supposed to form checks and balances on each other), and also to avoid prosecution by regularly firing anyone who could do something to charge him. And then pardoning anyone who did anything illegal on his behalf.

Trying to overthrow democracy he is spinning his wheels getting nowhere. But 17 states have said they want to overturn the election. That's not enough to get anywhere, but that should be a huge warning to democracy.

The problem for Trump is that, even the people he has appointed as yes men, don't really like him and delight in saying no.

He has been hoping the supreme court justices he appointed would back his claims blindly, but they haven't.

Trump is failing to destroy democracy, but he IS exposing cracks. Cracks a more savvy would-be dictator could exploit.

There are areas of concern.
1) Constitutional amendment.

It takes 2/3ds of states to ratify a constitutional amendment.

The smallest 2/3 states (rural states that lean Trump) make up less than 1/3 of the population. Those pro-Trump states despite being a minority of people could pass some constitutional change to put Trump in power.

2) Military. Trump has been replacing a lot of military leaders with his own yes men... So that the military is unlikely to do something if Trump does some nasty little trick.


I wouldn't say the constitution or democracy looks bullet proof... I just would say we don't have a competent enough man trying to end it.
Click to expand...


Well yeah, the danger is someone equally unprincipled and cleverer comes along and tries the same box of tricks. Still, he is the first President ever to seriously test the Constitution in this way, and you have to say that the Constitution, and the Rule of Law, have so far passed the test. And it's not like he was on his own, he had several senior Republican figure enabling him - but not, despite all his personal, partisan appointees, in the courts.

He's attempted a coup, and he's got nowhere; not because of the personal integrity of people in powerful positions, but because of the integrity of the US legal institutions.
 
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Archers Road said:
Well yeah, the danger is someone equally unprincipled and cleverer comes along and tries the same box of tricks. Still, he is the first President ever to seriously test the Constitution in this way, and you have to say that the Constitution, and the Rule of Law, have so far passed the test. And it's not like he was on his own, he had several senior Republican figure enabling him - but not, despite all his personal, partisan appointees, in the courts.

He's attempted a coup, and he's got nowhere; not because of the personal integrity of people in powerful positions, but because of the integrity of the US legal institutions.
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Yes, you're right...
So far it's working... This time... Although I won't be totally comfortable until Trump is out of office.

And as I said, 2/3rds of states needed for constitutional amendments... The smallest 2/3rds of states tend to be republican and represent less than 1/3 of population. 17 states already have said they want to overturn election. That's about half the number he needs...

Trump's real path to victory would be forcing through an emergency amendment that says absentee ballots are illegal and can not be counted in future or past elections.

Bang, he's president again despite losing election.

Since amendments are based on number of states (not population they represent), and he's already got half the number he needs without trying, his real danger would be forcing an amendment that would essentially nullify the election.

... And it could still happen. Those states are technically supporting throwing out Biden wins not changing the constitution, but it's not a stretch that they would back a constitutional change instead.
 
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Milk just milk said:
Yes, you're right...
So far it's working... This time... Although I won't be totally comfortable until Trump is out of office.

And as I said, 2/3rds of states needed for constitutional amendments... The smallest 2/3rds of states tend to be republican and represent less than 1/3 of population. 17 states already have said they want to overturn election. That's about half the number he needs...

Trump's real path to victory would be forcing through an emergency amendment that says absentee ballots are illegal and can not be counted in future or past elections.

Bang, he's president again despite losing election.

Since amendments are based on number of states (not population they represent), and he's already got half the number he needs without trying, his real danger would be forcing an amendment that would essentially nullify the election.

... And it could still happen. Those states are technically supporting throwing out Biden wins not changing the constitution, but it's not a stretch that they would back a constitutional change instead.
Click to expand...

I appreciate that you think he’ll stop at nothing, but the idea that all postal votes could be decreed invalid retrospectively is beyond fanciful. It’d never get through, as it’d literally create a civil war, whilst simultaneously making the US a tinpot dictatorship. Not happening.
 
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Tobes said:
I appreciate that you think he’ll stop at nothing, but the idea that all postal votes could be decreed invalid retrospectively is beyond fanciful.
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It's not likely to succeed, no... But...

If you told me 4 years ago a presidential candidate would try and overthrow an election in the courts without any evidence of fraud, and have backing of his party. I would have thought that beyond fanciful too.

Or if 6 years if you told me America would elect someone who would refuse to denounce the Ku Klux Klan. Or a crazy 4chan conspiracy theory akin to QAnon. I would have thought that beyond fanciful too.



I think it is highly unlikely Trump will be President by the end of January, I don't think he can pull it off... But I'm not going to be happy and feeling safe until he is gone.
 
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Milk just milk said:
Thank goodness for that.

Now what's his next move?
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That’s him ****ed now I think. He has nowhere else to go now the Supreme Court has refused to entertain his lunacy.

All this has been a good argument for a written constitution; which the U.K. doesn’t have. If Johnson decided to go rogue in the way Trump has (not saying he would btw), the legal restraints on his power could all be overturned if he could persuade Parliament to back him. That’s the Parliament he prorogued once already btw.
 
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pieguts said:
His next move is exactly the same as it’s been since the day after the election...grift as much money as possible from the “trumpers”.
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Interestingly, amongst the many shouts of ‘bring in the military’ from the hardcore Trumpers, there’s a few actually commenting that they think they’re being milked now.
 
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