I've delved in as much as I can about this transfer embargo imposed by FIFA and I'm getting the vibes whatever happens in the immediate future regarding getting it temporarily lifted, this could all end in a financial compromise with Nantes. If the Swiss Federal Court sends the case back to CAS for reconsideration, which apparently they are quite likely to do, the embargo would have to be lifted. The timing won't help with this January window but the ongoing situation would put Nantes in a difficult situation as they thought they were home and dry.
Even if CAS reaffirms it's earlier decision and the embargo is re-imposed by FIFA, Tan would then sue Nantes over the transaction through the French Courts under the French legal system which is much more stringent and very specific on contract law. Nantes who are extremely strapped for cash would not want to chance the outcome and a compromise out of court settlement is likely. This would probably comprise a much reduced "player compensation fee" (not transfer fee!) which would include a contribution toward their incurred legal costs to date.
Whatever settlement figure might be agreed, Tan would then pursue others involved to recover that loss (football agents, aircraft owner and operator, insurance brokers etc). He might have to take a small personal hit but he wont let it go.
Whatever the eventual outcome of that subsequent action, the immediate accounting bonus would be the approx £22M provision set aside on the balance sheet would be wiped out and replaced by the actual settlement cost. The club's balance sheet would improve by possibly as much as £15M. It's not actual cash but it would be a huge boost toward the sustainability requirements. At the moment they appear to be in limbo as a result of the pandemic, but will surely be reimposed shortly in some form.
Apologies for posting this on a matchday, but had a lot of spare time on my hands over Christmas.
