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By Timeform -- published 18th November 2014

Last updated: to cover racing to 16/11/14.

NOVICE CHASERS
162 GOD'S OWN
152p SOUTHFIELD THEATRE
151p CHAMPAGNE WEST
153§ COLOUR SQUADRON
150 CAUSE OF CAUSES
149+ THE ROMFORD PELE
148 GRANDOUET
147p ALELCHI INOIS
147 ABEL DEPUTY
145p KINGS PALACE
145p SHANAHAN'S TURN
145p THE YOUNG MASTER
144p THE TULLOW TANK
144 SAUSALITO SUNRISE
143x TED VEALE
142p COURT MINSTREL
142p PTIT ZIG
142p TANERKO EMERY
142p VIBRATO VALTAT
142 ATTAGLANCE

NOVICE HURDLERS
147+ VYTA DU ROC
143 BLAKLION
142+ PRESENT VIEW
141 PARLOUR GAMES
140p MORNING RUN
140 CHALK IT DOWN
139p EMERGING TALENT
139 HASH BROWN
138p IN THE ROUGH
138 RICH COAST
137p ALPHA DES OBEAUX
137p EXITAS
137 COMMISSIONED
136p ALTON BAY
136p OTAGO TRAIL
136 GOONYELLA
136 SHIELD
135p SHEAMUS
134p SHANTOU BOB
134p URUBU D'IRLANDE

NH FLAT HORSES
124 SHANESHILL
123 NO MORE HEROES
123 SILVER CONCORDE
122+ MILSEAN
122 TEA FOR TWO
121 VALUE AT RISK
120 DEFINITLY RED
120 VAGO COLLONGES
119p MOON RACER
119 BLACK HERCULES
119 EL NAMOOSE
119 FAUGHEEN
118p FORGOTTEN RULES
118 JOSHUA LANE
118 KILLULTAGH VIC
118 RATHVINDEN
117+ GAITWAY
117+ RED SHERLOCK
117 VIGIL
116+ MACBRIDE
 
By Timeform -- published 18th November 2014

Last updated: to cover racing to 16/11/2014.

CHASERS
192? SPRINTER SACRE
180 CUE CARD
176 SILVINIACO CONTI
176? BOBS WORTH
175 CAPTAIN CHRIS
174 FLEMENSTAR
172+ SIRE DE GRUGY
171 DYNASTE
171 SIR DES CHAMPS
169x MENORAH
165 ROAD TO RICHES
165 SIZING EUROPE
165 TIDAL BAY
165x HARRY TOPPER
164 WISHFULL THINKING
163p CHAMPAGNE FEVER
163 ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE
163 BOSTON BOB
162+ BALDER SUCCES
162 GOD'S OWN
162 THE GIANT BOLSTER


HURDLERS
173p MORE OF THAT
170 JEZKI
170 MY TENT OR YOURS
169 THE NEW ONE
168p UN DE SCEAUX
168 HURRICANE FLY
166p FAUGHEEN
165 ANNIE POWER
164 SOLWHIT
162+ SAPHIR DU RHEU
162 MELODIC RENDEZVOUS
162 REVE DE SIVOLA
161p VAUTOUR
161 THOUSAND STARS
161 ZARKANDAR
161x AT FISHERS CROSS
160 CAPTAIN CEE BEE
160 PURPLE BAY
159 DIKALI
159 ROCK ON RUBY


JUVENILE HURDLERS
135p STARS OVER THE SEA
133p KAREZAK
133 GOLDEN DOYEN
129p MR GALLIVANTER
128p HARGAM
126p BARAKA DE THAIX
126 STARCHITECT
125p TOP NOTCH
125 L'AIGLE ROYAL
125 UNANIMITE
124 DAI BANDO
122p CHATEZ
122 GOODBYE DANCER
121 COME ON SUNSHINE
120p BUISENESS SIVOLA
120p TOP OF THE GLAS
120 RUSSIAN BOLERO
120 VOSNE ROMANEE
119p MARRACUDJA
119 GIMME FIVE
119 SAINT LINO
 
By Simon Rowlands -- published 18th November 2014

This week Simon examines which sires you need to follow- and avoid- through the winter on the all-weather.

There are many different factors to consider when weighing up a horse’s chances on an all-weather surface, but one which continues to have value, and to be profitable in some circumstances, is to look at the identity of its sire.

As with most “stats”, an ounce of realisation is worth a pound of speculation. It matters not one bit that a horse’s sire is a “good” all-weather sire if the horse in question repeatedly underperforms on all-weather. Or, for that matter, if that horse’s sire is a “poor” all-weather sire and the horse in question has proved its effectiveness on all-weather.

But there is a vast pool of horses for which such matters are unknown, or at least undecided: horses which have not run on all-weather or which have run under circumstances that leave the results open to interpretation.

These are horses for which an understanding of the customary effectiveness, or ineffectiveness, of a sire’s offspring on a given surface could be one of the most valuable pieces of information a punter possesses.

In the above, I have referred to all-weather as one entity, for convenience. But the truth is that the specific nature of the all-weather surface on which a horse runs may well have a great bearing on how well it runs.

Fibresand – which is used only at Southwell – is deeper, more stamina-sapping, and results in slower finishes and wider margins between horses, than Polytrack. Previous surveys have shown that US-bred horses fare better on Fibresand – which resembles dirt in some respects – than on Polytrack.

Those two surfaces have been joined recently at Wolverhampton by Tapeta, which is similar to Polytrack in terms of its speed, but which could still produce specialists in terms of the sires which perform well there. After just three months of racing on Tapeta, it is too early to tell for sure.

The following tables look at the figures for sires on Fibresand, Polytrack and Tapeta in Britain and Ireland from 01/01/2011 to 31/10/2014 inclusive. The maximum performance rating of each offspring during that period on each of the surfaces was identified and used (the alternative of considering every performance of every horse would involve considerable multiple-counting).

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As can be seen, Speightstown is an outstanding sire of horses running on Fibresand, though he is also a decidedly good sire of Polytrack performers. Street Cry also appears in the top 12 on both surfaces. The appearance of Sakhee’s Secret (a solid enough sire overall) and Multiplex in the bottom 12 Fibresand sires in terms of ratings is an interesting feature.

As mentioned, the data for Tapeta sires is far from extensive, but Pivotal’s figures stand out as being good at this stage.

Knowing that a sire has a good record on all-weather, or on a specific all-weather surface, is useful but may not be especially valuable if many other people are aware of this fact. For instance, Speightstown’s excellent record is unlikely to have taken many all-weather aficionados by surprise.

The following tables consider a sire’s Profit/Loss at Betfair Starting Price, before commission, as well as its Return On Investment (a more meaningful figure, as it takes into account the number of theoretical bets struck to achieve this P/L).

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There are some familiar names, and some less familiar names, there. Speightstown has slipped off both lists (though is in profit on both Fibresand and Polytrack in the period under review), while Street Cry sneaks into the top 12 list for Fibresand sires by ROI. Top of that list, by a long way, is Fasliyev, while Statue of Liberty is in the top five on Fibresand by both rating and ROI.

Fasliyev also appears in the bottom list for Polytrack: in terms of performance against market expectation he is a considerably better sire on Fibresand than on Polytrack. Multiplex – a poor sire on Fibresand in terms of the ratings of his offspring – is an excellent sire on Polytrack in terms of profitability.

Top of the profitability list on Tapeta, at this early stage, are Pivotal and Exceed And Excel, both sires who figured well in terms of ratings on the surface also.

All-weather racing comes thick, if not always especially fast, over the next few months, and opportunities to put theories based on the above into practice should be plentiful.
 
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