By Timeform -- published 18th November 2014 Last updated: to cover racing to 16/11/14. NOVICE CHASERS 162 GOD'S OWN 152p SOUTHFIELD THEATRE 151p CHAMPAGNE WEST 153§ COLOUR SQUADRON 150 CAUSE OF CAUSES 149+ THE ROMFORD PELE 148 GRANDOUET 147p ALELCHI INOIS 147 ABEL DEPUTY 145p KINGS PALACE 145p SHANAHAN'S TURN 145p THE YOUNG MASTER 144p THE TULLOW TANK 144 SAUSALITO SUNRISE 143x TED VEALE 142p COURT MINSTREL 142p PTIT ZIG 142p TANERKO EMERY 142p VIBRATO VALTAT 142 ATTAGLANCE NOVICE HURDLERS 147+ VYTA DU ROC 143 BLAKLION 142+ PRESENT VIEW 141 PARLOUR GAMES 140p MORNING RUN 140 CHALK IT DOWN 139p EMERGING TALENT 139 HASH BROWN 138p IN THE ROUGH 138 RICH COAST 137p ALPHA DES OBEAUX 137p EXITAS 137 COMMISSIONED 136p ALTON BAY 136p OTAGO TRAIL 136 GOONYELLA 136 SHIELD 135p SHEAMUS 134p SHANTOU BOB 134p URUBU D'IRLANDE NH FLAT HORSES 124 SHANESHILL 123 NO MORE HEROES 123 SILVER CONCORDE 122+ MILSEAN 122 TEA FOR TWO 121 VALUE AT RISK 120 DEFINITLY RED 120 VAGO COLLONGES 119p MOON RACER 119 BLACK HERCULES 119 EL NAMOOSE 119 FAUGHEEN 118p FORGOTTEN RULES 118 JOSHUA LANE 118 KILLULTAGH VIC 118 RATHVINDEN 117+ GAITWAY 117+ RED SHERLOCK 117 VIGIL 116+ MACBRIDE
By Timeform -- published 18th November 2014 Last updated: to cover racing to 16/11/2014. CHASERS 192? SPRINTER SACRE 180 CUE CARD 176 SILVINIACO CONTI 176? BOBS WORTH 175 CAPTAIN CHRIS 174 FLEMENSTAR 172+ SIRE DE GRUGY 171 DYNASTE 171 SIR DES CHAMPS 169x MENORAH 165 ROAD TO RICHES 165 SIZING EUROPE 165 TIDAL BAY 165x HARRY TOPPER 164 WISHFULL THINKING 163p CHAMPAGNE FEVER 163 ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE 163 BOSTON BOB 162+ BALDER SUCCES 162 GOD'S OWN 162 THE GIANT BOLSTER HURDLERS 173p MORE OF THAT 170 JEZKI 170 MY TENT OR YOURS 169 THE NEW ONE 168p UN DE SCEAUX 168 HURRICANE FLY 166p FAUGHEEN 165 ANNIE POWER 164 SOLWHIT 162+ SAPHIR DU RHEU 162 MELODIC RENDEZVOUS 162 REVE DE SIVOLA 161p VAUTOUR 161 THOUSAND STARS 161 ZARKANDAR 161x AT FISHERS CROSS 160 CAPTAIN CEE BEE 160 PURPLE BAY 159 DIKALI 159 ROCK ON RUBY JUVENILE HURDLERS 135p STARS OVER THE SEA 133p KAREZAK 133 GOLDEN DOYEN 129p MR GALLIVANTER 128p HARGAM 126p BARAKA DE THAIX 126 STARCHITECT 125p TOP NOTCH 125 L'AIGLE ROYAL 125 UNANIMITE 124 DAI BANDO 122p CHATEZ 122 GOODBYE DANCER 121 COME ON SUNSHINE 120p BUISENESS SIVOLA 120p TOP OF THE GLAS 120 RUSSIAN BOLERO 120 VOSNE ROMANEE 119p MARRACUDJA 119 GIMME FIVE 119 SAINT LINO
By Simon Rowlands -- published 18th November 2014 This week Simon examines which sires you need to follow- and avoid- through the winter on the all-weather. There are many different factors to consider when weighing up a horseâs chances on an all-weather surface, but one which continues to have value, and to be profitable in some circumstances, is to look at the identity of its sire. As with most âstatsâ, an ounce of realisation is worth a pound of speculation. It matters not one bit that a horseâs sire is a âgoodâ all-weather sire if the horse in question repeatedly underperforms on all-weather. Or, for that matter, if that horseâs sire is a âpoorâ all-weather sire and the horse in question has proved its effectiveness on all-weather. But there is a vast pool of horses for which such matters are unknown, or at least undecided: horses which have not run on all-weather or which have run under circumstances that leave the results open to interpretation. These are horses for which an understanding of the customary effectiveness, or ineffectiveness, of a sireâs offspring on a given surface could be one of the most valuable pieces of information a punter possesses. In the above, I have referred to all-weather as one entity, for convenience. But the truth is that the specific nature of the all-weather surface on which a horse runs may well have a great bearing on how well it runs. Fibresand â which is used only at Southwell â is deeper, more stamina-sapping, and results in slower finishes and wider margins between horses, than Polytrack. Previous surveys have shown that US-bred horses fare better on Fibresand â which resembles dirt in some respects â than on Polytrack. Those two surfaces have been joined recently at Wolverhampton by Tapeta, which is similar to Polytrack in terms of its speed, but which could still produce specialists in terms of the sires which perform well there. After just three months of racing on Tapeta, it is too early to tell for sure. The following tables look at the figures for sires on Fibresand, Polytrack and Tapeta in Britain and Ireland from 01/01/2011 to 31/10/2014 inclusive. The maximum performance rating of each offspring during that period on each of the surfaces was identified and used (the alternative of considering every performance of every horse would involve considerable multiple-counting). please log in to view this image As can be seen, Speightstown is an outstanding sire of horses running on Fibresand, though he is also a decidedly good sire of Polytrack performers. Street Cry also appears in the top 12 on both surfaces. The appearance of Sakheeâs Secret (a solid enough sire overall) and Multiplex in the bottom 12 Fibresand sires in terms of ratings is an interesting feature. As mentioned, the data for Tapeta sires is far from extensive, but Pivotalâs figures stand out as being good at this stage. Knowing that a sire has a good record on all-weather, or on a specific all-weather surface, is useful but may not be especially valuable if many other people are aware of this fact. For instance, Speightstownâs excellent record is unlikely to have taken many all-weather aficionados by surprise. The following tables consider a sireâs Profit/Loss at Betfair Starting Price, before commission, as well as its Return On Investment (a more meaningful figure, as it takes into account the number of theoretical bets struck to achieve this P/L). please log in to view this image There are some familiar names, and some less familiar names, there. Speightstown has slipped off both lists (though is in profit on both Fibresand and Polytrack in the period under review), while Street Cry sneaks into the top 12 list for Fibresand sires by ROI. Top of that list, by a long way, is Fasliyev, while Statue of Liberty is in the top five on Fibresand by both rating and ROI. Fasliyev also appears in the bottom list for Polytrack: in terms of performance against market expectation he is a considerably better sire on Fibresand than on Polytrack. Multiplex â a poor sire on Fibresand in terms of the ratings of his offspring â is an excellent sire on Polytrack in terms of profitability. Top of the profitability list on Tapeta, at this early stage, are Pivotal and Exceed And Excel, both sires who figured well in terms of ratings on the surface also. All-weather racing comes thick, if not always especially fast, over the next few months, and opportunities to put theories based on the above into practice should be plentiful.
